青藏块体8级左右地震前中强地震活动图像的相似性演化
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摘要
2008年5月12日,四川汶川发生8.0级特大地震.汶川地震前,青藏块体曾出现与2001年11月昆仑山口西8.1级特大地震前相似的大规模中强地震活动图像.为了探讨8级左右地震前的中强地震活动规律,本文研究了1900年以来中国大陆地区8级左右地震前中强地震的时空分布特征,认为①青藏块体8级左右地震前一般会出现中强地震活动图像的两阶段演化,第一阶段主要表现为中强地震沿印度板块与青藏块体接触带附近分布、青藏块体内部平静,第二阶段主要表现为中强地震向青藏块体内部扩展,形成大规模中强地震条带,未来主震一般发生在大规模中强地震主条带或者多组条带的交汇处.②该演化规律可能反映了印度板块作用于欧亚板块(尤其是青藏块体)产生的大区域地壳运动与构造应力场的动态变化过程,对预测青藏块体8级左右地震(尤其是8级以上特大地震)有一定意义,对预测新疆块体8级左右地震有参考价值,但尚不适用于中国大陆东部地区.③从更大范围考察中强地震活动图像的演化,有可能发现大地震前的场兆信息,对分析、预测未来的8级左右地震是一个有意义而且可行的方向.本文还对汶川地震的孕震过程和大规模中强地震条带的形成机理作了初步的探讨.
An M_s8.0 super-strong earthquake occurred in Wenchuan of Sichuan on May 12, 2008. Before the earthquake there appeared large-scale strong-moderate seismicity patterns in Qinghai-Tibet block similar with that before the M_s8.1 earthquake of Kunlun Mountain in November of 2001.According to the analysis and study of distribution and evolution of strong-moderate earthquakes before about M_s8 earthquakes in Chinese Mainland since 1900, we considered: ① There is always a two-stage evolution of seismicity pattern of strong-moderate earthquakes before the M_s8 earthquakes in Qinghai-Tibet block.In the first stage strong-moderate earthquakes occurred along the contact zone of Indian Plate and Qinghai-Tibet block while were calm in the Qinghai-Tibet block.In the second stage, the strong-moderate earthquakes extended into the Qinghai-Tibet block and formed large-scale strong-moderate earthquake belts. Subsequent main shock always occurred in the intersection of main or multi-group belts of strong-moderate earthquakes.②The evolution maybe reflects the dynamic-change process of large-area crustal movement and tectonic stress field caused by the action of Indian Plate on Qinghai-Tibet block, which have important significance in M_s≥8 super-strong earthquakes prediction of Qinghai-Tiber block and reference value for prediction of M_s≥8 earthquakes in Xinjiang block, but not valid for earthquakes in the east of Chinese mainland.③ We may find the precursory information before strong earthquakes by studying large-scale evolution of seismicity patterns of strong-moderate earthquakes, which is meaningful and feasible to analyze and forecast future M_s8 earthquakes.In addition, we discussed preliminarily the seismogenic process of Wenchuan earthquake and formation mechanism of large-scale strong-moderate seismicity belts in this paper.
An M_s8.0 super-strong earthquake occurred in Wenchuan of Sichuan on May 12, 2008. Before the earthquake there appeared large-scale strong-moderate seismicity patterns in Qinghai-Tibet block similar with that before the M_s8.1 earthquake of Kunlun Mountain in November of 2001.According to the analysis and study of distribution and evolution of strong-moderate earthquakes before about M_s8 earthquakes in Chinese Mainland since 1900, we considered: ① There is always a two-stage evolution of seismicity pattern of strong-moderate earthquakes before the M_s8 earthquakes in Qinghai-Tibet block.In the first stage strong-moderate earthquakes occurred along the contact zone of Indian Plate and Qinghai-Tibet block while were calm in the Qinghai-Tibet block.In the second stage, the strong-moderate earthquakes extended into the Qinghai-Tibet block and formed large-scale strong-moderate earthquake belts. Subsequent main shock always occurred in the intersection of main or multi-group belts of strong-moderate earthquakes.②The evolution maybe reflects the dynamic-change process of large-area crustal movement and tectonic stress field caused by the action of Indian Plate on Qinghai-Tibet block, which have important significance in M_s≥8 super-strong earthquakes prediction of Qinghai-Tiber block and reference value for prediction of M_s≥8 earthquakes in Xinjiang block, but not valid for earthquakes in the east of Chinese mainland.③ We may find the precursory information before strong earthquakes by studying large-scale evolution of seismicity patterns of strong-moderate earthquakes, which is meaningful and feasible to analyze and forecast future M_s8 earthquakes.In addition, we discussed preliminarily the seismogenic process of Wenchuan earthquake and formation mechanism of large-scale strong-moderate seismicity belts in this paper.
引文
1) 北京市地震局.北京市2008年度地震趋势研究报告.2007年12月,18～19
2) 汶川8． 0级地震总结与反思地震预报工作组.2008年汶川8． 0级地震科学总结与反思报告(地震预报领域).2009年5月,46～124
[1] 陈玉华,马文静.昆仑山口西8． 1级地震前地震活动图像演化特征.高原地震,2002,14(1) :41～47 Chen Y H,Ma W J.Characteristics of seismicity pattern evolution before the west Kunlun Mountains earthquake with Ms8． 1． Earthquake Research in Plateau(in Chinese),2002,14(1) :41～47
[2] 张晓东,张永仙,吕梅梅等.青海昆仑山口西8． 1级地震时空强有序特征探讨.地震学报.2003,25(6) :583～590 Zhang X D,Zhang Y X,LüM M,et al.Discussion on the feature of strong earthquake distribution in time,space and magnitude order before Kunlunshan 8． 1 earthquake.Acta Seismologica Sinica(in Chinese),2003,25(6) :583～590
[3] 刘蒲雄,郑大林,车时等.2001年11月14日昆仑山口西8． 1级地震前地震活动性异常及其思考.地震学报,2003,25(2) :205～210 Liu P X,Zheng D L,Che S,et al.Seismicity anomalies before the great earthquake of Ms = 8． 1 in the Kunlun pass and its significance to earthquake prediction.Acta Seismologica Sinica(in Chinese),2003,25(2) :205～210
[4] 宋治平,薛艳,梅世蓉等.昆仑山口西8． 1级地震的地震活动特征.地震,2003,23(1) .:15～22 Song Z P,Xue Y,Mei S R,et al.Seismic characteristics before the M8． 1 earthquake in the west to the pass of the Kunlun Mountain.Earthquake(in Chinese),2003,23(1) : 15～22
[5] 孙加林,曹井泉.2001年昆仑山口西8． 1级特大地震孕育过程及中强地震活动图像演化.西北地震学报,2003,25(1) :28～34 Sun J L,Cao J Q.The pregnant process of west to Kunlun Mountain pass earthquake with Ms8． 1 in 2001 and seismicity image evolution of moderate strong earthquakes.Northwestern Seismological Journal(in Chinese),2003,25(1) :28～34
[6] 杨立明,程建武.昆仑山口西8． 1级地震孕育演化的阶段性初步研究.西北地震学报,2003,25(1) :35～39 Yang L M,Cheng J W.The preliminary study on the stage division for the pregnancy and evolution of west to Kunlun mountain pass Ms8． 1 earthquake.Northwestern Seismological Journal(in Chinese),2003,25(1) :35～39
[7] 梅世蓉,薛艳,宋治平.汶川8． 0级与昆仑山口西8． 1级地震前地震活动异常特征与启示.地震,2009,29(1) :1～14 Mei S R,Xue Y,Song Z P.Anomalous seismic characteristics before Wenchuan M8． 0 and Kunlunshan M8． 1 earthquakes and their implications.Earthquake(in Chinese),2009,29(1) :1～14
[8] 国家地震局震害防御司.中国历史强震目录.北京:地震出版社,1995 The Earthquake Disaster Prevention Department of the State Seismological Bureau.Catalogue of Chinese Historical Strong Earthquake(in Chinese).Beijing:Seismological Press,1995
[9] 中国地震局震害防御司.中国近代地震目录.北京:中国科学出版社,1999 The Earthquake Disaster Prevention Department of the State Seismological Bureau.Catalogue of Later-Day Earthquake(in Chinese).Beijing:China Science and Technology Press,1999
[10] 张培震,徐锡伟,闻学泽等.2008年汶川8． 0级地震发震断裂的滑动速率、复发周期和构造成因.地球物理学报,2008,51(4) :1066～1073 Zhang P Z,Xu X W,Wen X Z,et al.Slip rates and recurrence intervals of the Longmen Shan active fault zone,and tectonic implications for the mechanism of the May 12 Wenchuan earthquake,2008,Sichuan,China.Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),2008,51(4) :1066～1073
[11] 徐纪人,赵志新,石川有三.中国大陆地壳应力场与构造运动区域特征研究.地球物理学报,2008,51(3) :770～781 Xu J R,Zhao Z X,Ishikawa Yuzo.Regional characteristics of crustal stress field and tectonic motions in and around Chinese mainland.Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),2008,51(3) :770～781
[12] 江在森,方颖,武艳强等.汶川8． 0级地震前区域地壳运动与变形动态过程.地球物理学报,2009,52(2) :505～518 Jiang Z S,Fang Y,Wu Y Q,et al.The dynamic process of regional crustal movement and deformation before Wenchuan Ms8． 0 earthquake.Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),2009,52(2) :505～518
[13] Wang C Y,Han W B,Wu J P,et al.Crustal structure beneath the eastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau and its tectonic implications.J.Geophys.Res.,2007,112,B07307,doi:10． 1029/2005JB003873
[14] Zhang Z J,Wang Y H,Chen Y,et al.Crustal structure across Longmenshan fault belt from passive source seismic profiling.Geophys.Res.Lett.,2009,36,L17310,doi:10． 1029/2009GL039580
[15] 张国民,邵志刚,刘桂萍等.汶川8． 0级地震构造动力成因分析.地震,2009,29(1) :164～173 Zhang G M,Shao Z G,Liu G P,et al.Analysis on the geodynamic cause of the Wenchuan 8． 0 earthquake.Earthquake(in Chinese),2009,29(1) :164～173
[16] 滕吉文,白登海,杨辉等.2008汶川M_s8． 0地震发生的深层过程和动力学响应.地球物理学报,2008,51(5) :1385～1402 Teng J W,Bai D H,Yang H,et al.Deep processes and dynamic responses associated with the Wenchuan M_s8． 0 earthquake of 2008． Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),2008,51(5) :1385～1402
[17] 郭良迁,李延兴,胡新康等.中国大陆地壳运动与汶川Ms8． 0级地震孕育的关系.地球物理学报,2009,52(2) :531～537 Guo L Q,Li Y X,Hu X K,et al.Crustal motion of Chinese mainland and preparation of Ms8． 0 Wenchuan earthquake in Sichuan Province.Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),2009,52(2) :531～537
[18] 张国民,张培震.“大陆强震机理与预测”中期学术进展.中国基础科学,2000,(10) :4～10 Zhang G M,Zhang P Z.Academic progress on the mechanism and forecast for continental strong earthquake in the first two years.China Basic Science(in Chinese),2000,(10) :4～10
[19] 张培震,邓启东,张国民等.中国大陆的强震活动与活动地块.中国科学(D辑),2003,33(增Ⅰ):12～20 Zhang P Z,Deng Q D,Zhang G M,et al.Active tectonic blocks and strong earthquakes in the continent of China. Science in China(Series D)(in Chinese),2003,33(S1) :12～20
[20] 中国地震局监测预报司.中国大陆地震短期异常特征和综合预测方法研究.北京:地震出版社,2005 Monitoring and Prediction Bureau of CEA.Study on Short-Term Earthquake Anomaly Feature and Comprehensive Forecasting Method in Chinese Mainland(in Chinese).Beijing:Seismological Press,2005
[21] 刘蒲雄,陈章立.地震条带及其在地震预报中的作用.中国地震,1989,5(1) :23～32 Liu P X,Chen Z L.Seismicity band and preceding earthquakes and its application in earthquake prediction.Earthquake Research in China(in Chinese),1989,5(1) :23～32
[22] 黄玮琼,李文香,曹学锋.中国大陆地震资料完整性研究之二.地震学报,1994,16(4) :423～432 Huang W Q,Li W X,Cao X F.Research on the completeness of earthquake data in the Chinese mainland(Ⅱ).Acta Seismologica Sinica(in Chinese),1994,16(4) :423～432
[23] 黄玮琼,李文香,曹学锋.中国大陆地震资料完整性研究之一.地震学报,1994,16(3) :273～280 Huang W Q,Li W X,Cao X F.Research on the completeness of earthquake data in the Chinese mainland(Ⅰ).Acta Seismologica Sinica(in Chinese),1994,16(3) :273～280
[24] 韩竹军,董绍鹏,谢富仁等.南北地震带北部5次(1561～1920年)M≥7级地震触发关系研究.地球物理学报,2008,51(6) :1776～1784 Han Z J,Dong S P,Xie F R,et al.Earthquake triggering by static stress:the 5 major earthquakes with M≥7(1561～1920) in the northern section of South-north seismic zone,China.Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),2008,51(6) :1776～1784
2) 汶川8． 0级地震总结与反思地震预报工作组.2008年汶川8． 0级地震科学总结与反思报告(地震预报领域).2009年5月,46～124
[1] 陈玉华,马文静.昆仑山口西8． 1级地震前地震活动图像演化特征.高原地震,2002,14(1) :41～47 Chen Y H,Ma W J.Characteristics of seismicity pattern evolution before the west Kunlun Mountains earthquake with Ms8． 1． Earthquake Research in Plateau(in Chinese),2002,14(1) :41～47
[2] 张晓东,张永仙,吕梅梅等.青海昆仑山口西8． 1级地震时空强有序特征探讨.地震学报.2003,25(6) :583～590 Zhang X D,Zhang Y X,LüM M,et al.Discussion on the feature of strong earthquake distribution in time,space and magnitude order before Kunlunshan 8． 1 earthquake.Acta Seismologica Sinica(in Chinese),2003,25(6) :583～590
[3] 刘蒲雄,郑大林,车时等.2001年11月14日昆仑山口西8． 1级地震前地震活动性异常及其思考.地震学报,2003,25(2) :205～210 Liu P X,Zheng D L,Che S,et al.Seismicity anomalies before the great earthquake of Ms = 8． 1 in the Kunlun pass and its significance to earthquake prediction.Acta Seismologica Sinica(in Chinese),2003,25(2) :205～210
[4] 宋治平,薛艳,梅世蓉等.昆仑山口西8． 1级地震的地震活动特征.地震,2003,23(1) .:15～22 Song Z P,Xue Y,Mei S R,et al.Seismic characteristics before the M8． 1 earthquake in the west to the pass of the Kunlun Mountain.Earthquake(in Chinese),2003,23(1) : 15～22
[5] 孙加林,曹井泉.2001年昆仑山口西8． 1级特大地震孕育过程及中强地震活动图像演化.西北地震学报,2003,25(1) :28～34 Sun J L,Cao J Q.The pregnant process of west to Kunlun Mountain pass earthquake with Ms8． 1 in 2001 and seismicity image evolution of moderate strong earthquakes.Northwestern Seismological Journal(in Chinese),2003,25(1) :28～34
[6] 杨立明,程建武.昆仑山口西8． 1级地震孕育演化的阶段性初步研究.西北地震学报,2003,25(1) :35～39 Yang L M,Cheng J W.The preliminary study on the stage division for the pregnancy and evolution of west to Kunlun mountain pass Ms8． 1 earthquake.Northwestern Seismological Journal(in Chinese),2003,25(1) :35～39
[7] 梅世蓉,薛艳,宋治平.汶川8． 0级与昆仑山口西8． 1级地震前地震活动异常特征与启示.地震,2009,29(1) :1～14 Mei S R,Xue Y,Song Z P.Anomalous seismic characteristics before Wenchuan M8． 0 and Kunlunshan M8． 1 earthquakes and their implications.Earthquake(in Chinese),2009,29(1) :1～14
[8] 国家地震局震害防御司.中国历史强震目录.北京:地震出版社,1995 The Earthquake Disaster Prevention Department of the State Seismological Bureau.Catalogue of Chinese Historical Strong Earthquake(in Chinese).Beijing:Seismological Press,1995
[9] 中国地震局震害防御司.中国近代地震目录.北京:中国科学出版社,1999 The Earthquake Disaster Prevention Department of the State Seismological Bureau.Catalogue of Later-Day Earthquake(in Chinese).Beijing:China Science and Technology Press,1999
[10] 张培震,徐锡伟,闻学泽等.2008年汶川8． 0级地震发震断裂的滑动速率、复发周期和构造成因.地球物理学报,2008,51(4) :1066～1073 Zhang P Z,Xu X W,Wen X Z,et al.Slip rates and recurrence intervals of the Longmen Shan active fault zone,and tectonic implications for the mechanism of the May 12 Wenchuan earthquake,2008,Sichuan,China.Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),2008,51(4) :1066～1073
[11] 徐纪人,赵志新,石川有三.中国大陆地壳应力场与构造运动区域特征研究.地球物理学报,2008,51(3) :770～781 Xu J R,Zhao Z X,Ishikawa Yuzo.Regional characteristics of crustal stress field and tectonic motions in and around Chinese mainland.Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),2008,51(3) :770～781
[12] 江在森,方颖,武艳强等.汶川8． 0级地震前区域地壳运动与变形动态过程.地球物理学报,2009,52(2) :505～518 Jiang Z S,Fang Y,Wu Y Q,et al.The dynamic process of regional crustal movement and deformation before Wenchuan Ms8． 0 earthquake.Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),2009,52(2) :505～518
[13] Wang C Y,Han W B,Wu J P,et al.Crustal structure beneath the eastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau and its tectonic implications.J.Geophys.Res.,2007,112,B07307,doi:10． 1029/2005JB003873
[14] Zhang Z J,Wang Y H,Chen Y,et al.Crustal structure across Longmenshan fault belt from passive source seismic profiling.Geophys.Res.Lett.,2009,36,L17310,doi:10． 1029/2009GL039580
[15] 张国民,邵志刚,刘桂萍等.汶川8． 0级地震构造动力成因分析.地震,2009,29(1) :164～173 Zhang G M,Shao Z G,Liu G P,et al.Analysis on the geodynamic cause of the Wenchuan 8． 0 earthquake.Earthquake(in Chinese),2009,29(1) :164～173
[16] 滕吉文,白登海,杨辉等.2008汶川M_s8． 0地震发生的深层过程和动力学响应.地球物理学报,2008,51(5) :1385～1402 Teng J W,Bai D H,Yang H,et al.Deep processes and dynamic responses associated with the Wenchuan M_s8． 0 earthquake of 2008． Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),2008,51(5) :1385～1402
[17] 郭良迁,李延兴,胡新康等.中国大陆地壳运动与汶川Ms8． 0级地震孕育的关系.地球物理学报,2009,52(2) :531～537 Guo L Q,Li Y X,Hu X K,et al.Crustal motion of Chinese mainland and preparation of Ms8． 0 Wenchuan earthquake in Sichuan Province.Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),2009,52(2) :531～537
[18] 张国民,张培震.“大陆强震机理与预测”中期学术进展.中国基础科学,2000,(10) :4～10 Zhang G M,Zhang P Z.Academic progress on the mechanism and forecast for continental strong earthquake in the first two years.China Basic Science(in Chinese),2000,(10) :4～10
[19] 张培震,邓启东,张国民等.中国大陆的强震活动与活动地块.中国科学(D辑),2003,33(增Ⅰ):12～20 Zhang P Z,Deng Q D,Zhang G M,et al.Active tectonic blocks and strong earthquakes in the continent of China. Science in China(Series D)(in Chinese),2003,33(S1) :12～20
[20] 中国地震局监测预报司.中国大陆地震短期异常特征和综合预测方法研究.北京:地震出版社,2005 Monitoring and Prediction Bureau of CEA.Study on Short-Term Earthquake Anomaly Feature and Comprehensive Forecasting Method in Chinese Mainland(in Chinese).Beijing:Seismological Press,2005
[21] 刘蒲雄,陈章立.地震条带及其在地震预报中的作用.中国地震,1989,5(1) :23～32 Liu P X,Chen Z L.Seismicity band and preceding earthquakes and its application in earthquake prediction.Earthquake Research in China(in Chinese),1989,5(1) :23～32
[22] 黄玮琼,李文香,曹学锋.中国大陆地震资料完整性研究之二.地震学报,1994,16(4) :423～432 Huang W Q,Li W X,Cao X F.Research on the completeness of earthquake data in the Chinese mainland(Ⅱ).Acta Seismologica Sinica(in Chinese),1994,16(4) :423～432
[23] 黄玮琼,李文香,曹学锋.中国大陆地震资料完整性研究之一.地震学报,1994,16(3) :273～280 Huang W Q,Li W X,Cao X F.Research on the completeness of earthquake data in the Chinese mainland(Ⅰ).Acta Seismologica Sinica(in Chinese),1994,16(3) :273～280
[24] 韩竹军,董绍鹏,谢富仁等.南北地震带北部5次(1561～1920年)M≥7级地震触发关系研究.地球物理学报,2008,51(6) :1776～1784 Han Z J,Dong S P,Xie F R,et al.Earthquake triggering by static stress:the 5 major earthquakes with M≥7(1561～1920) in the northern section of South-north seismic zone,China.Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),2008,51(6) :1776～1784
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