我国西部大三角形地区的大震活动周期与8级左右巨震的中期预测
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摘要
我国西部的板内地震是由三个古板块(太平洋板块,欧亚板块和印度洋板块)的相互碰撞和挤压所造成,形成了大三角形地震块体,M≥7.0的大震大都发生在大三角形的三个角和三条边附近。根据大震活动的时高时低的实际情况分析,大致有11年左右的高潮期(活跃期)和低潮期(相对平静期),从目前掌握的资料分析来看M≥7.7的巨震有90年的组合周期存在,因此可以作出未来8级左右巨震的中期预测,一般误差为1年。
The plate earthquakes at west China were caused by the inter - collision and extrusion of the three ancient plates (Pacific plate, Eurasian plate and Indian plate) forming the great delta earthquake block. Most of the strong earthquakes with M≥7.0 occurred near its three angles and three edges.According to the fact that the great earthquakes sometimes are strong and sometimes are weak,we have the ideas that there is a peak duration (active period) and a low duration (quiet period) of about 11 years. Judging from the current statistics on hand, the great earthquakes with M≥7.7 has a combination period of 90 years. So the middle term forecasting on the future great earthquakes around magnitude M = 8 can be done and the general error is one year.
The plate earthquakes at west China were caused by the inter - collision and extrusion of the three ancient plates (Pacific plate, Eurasian plate and Indian plate) forming the great delta earthquake block. Most of the strong earthquakes with M≥7.0 occurred near its three angles and three edges.According to the fact that the great earthquakes sometimes are strong and sometimes are weak,we have the ideas that there is a peak duration (active period) and a low duration (quiet period) of about 11 years. Judging from the current statistics on hand, the great earthquakes with M≥7.7 has a combination period of 90 years. So the middle term forecasting on the future great earthquakes around magnitude M = 8 can be done and the general error is one year.
引文
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