摘要
对山西洪洞2003年ML5.0地震进行了分析,发现震前1a左右,在临汾盆地周边地区相继出现断层总面积、η值、A(b)值、D值、S值、YH值等地震活动性指标异常,这些指标异常反映了5.0级地震前地震活动呈现增强的特征。根据非线性理论中的尺度依赖性原理提出一种对特定范围的中强地震进行检验性预测的方法。
In an analysis of the 2003 Hongtong,Shanxi,earthquake of M_L5.0,it is found that some indexes such as total area of the fault, η,A(b),D, S and YH etc. become anomalous, time after time in Linfen Basin and its peripheral area. These index anomalies shows that the seismicity would be getting active before this earthquake of M_L5.0.On the size-depending principle in non-linear theory, a method for checking earthquake prediction for medium-strong earthquakes in some specific area is proposed.