强震概率增长时段判定法在粤东及邻区的应用

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英文篇名：THE APPLICATION OF STRONG EARTHQUAKE TIME OF INCREASED PROBABILITY METHOD TO THE EAST PART OF GUANGDONG PROVINCE AND ITS NEIGHBOURING DISTRICTS 中文刊名：华南地震 英文刊名：SOUTH CHINA JOURNAL OF SEISMOLOGY 作者：秦乃岗 ; 罗振暖 ; 聂树明 英文作者：Qin Naigang Luo Zhennuan Nie Shuming ( Seismological Bureau of Guangdong Province ; Guangzhou 510070) 中文关键词：地震预测 ; TIP方法 ; 地震流函数 英文关键词：Earthquake prediction ; Time of Increased Probability Method ; Earthquake fluid function 出版日期：1998-02-15 机构：广东省地震局 年：1998 期：01 出版单位：华南地震

摘要

将强震概率增长时段判定法（ＴＩＰ－Ｍ８）应用于粤、闽、赣交界及近海地区，资料从１９８５至１９９５年底。绝大多数地震流函数异常显示，从１９９５年底起３年内该区将发生５５级左右地震。１９９７年５月３１日发生的福建永安５２级地震与此判断相符。
Applied the Time of Increased Probability Method(TIP_M8) to the juncture area of three province (Guangdong,Jiangxi and Fujian Province) and near sea region.The catalogue is from 1985～1995.The anomaly of most earthquike fluid functions indicated that an earthquake(about M 5 5) would occur in three years from 1995.It was proved by the M S 5 2 earthquake occurred in Yongan,Fujian on May 31th of 1997.

引文

1Keilis－BorokVI．中期地震预报模型算法全球实验．北京：地震出版社，1991．2RotuainIM．非线性科学在地震预报中的应用．北京：地震出版社，1992．