地震矩比成像算法的发展及应用
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摘要
以伤口愈合理论为基础的地震矩比成像算法,把每次大震的能量按照一定的原则在其周围分配,分析地震矩比R值随时空变化的特征,从而找出地震矩比R值与强震的对应关系.本文以中国地震目录分别作分区、震源深度分析和记录完整性分析,应用调整了参数的地震矩比成像算法,分析了1966年以来中国不同地区7.0级以上地震前,震中及其周围R值对应的异常演化过程,发现通过分析R值异常的时空变化,能够定量化确定未来大震的空间范围和时间迫近程度.结果显示,R值的时空变化能够定量反映大震发生的时空要素,而且R值的变化特征能够反映介质破裂的规律.
In the Moment-ratio Imaging algorithm, which is based on the theory of healing of a wound, the energy of each strong earthquake is distributed around the epicenter according to certain rules, and the features of the Moment-ratio value [WTHT]Rare analyzed as the space and time change, so that the relationships between the Moment-ration value R and strong earthquakes can be found. In the present paper, regions divided, hypocenter depths and events completed magnitude analyses were carried out in the Chinese catalogue. By applying the Moment-ratio Imaging algorithm in which the parameters are adjusted, the processes of anomaly evolution which correspond to the epicenter and the surrounding value Rbefore earthquakes of M≥7.0 since 1966 in different areas of China were analyzed. It was found that the range area and imminent time of a coming earthquake could be confirmed quantitatively by analyzing the abnormal temporal and spatial variation of the value R[WTBZ]. The results showed that the temporal and spatial variation of the value Rcould quantitatively reflect the temporal and spatial factors of a coming strong earthquake as well as the rule of medium rupture.
In the Moment-ratio Imaging algorithm, which is based on the theory of healing of a wound, the energy of each strong earthquake is distributed around the epicenter according to certain rules, and the features of the Moment-ratio value [WTHT]Rare analyzed as the space and time change, so that the relationships between the Moment-ration value R and strong earthquakes can be found. In the present paper, regions divided, hypocenter depths and events completed magnitude analyses were carried out in the Chinese catalogue. By applying the Moment-ratio Imaging algorithm in which the parameters are adjusted, the processes of anomaly evolution which correspond to the epicenter and the surrounding value Rbefore earthquakes of M≥7.0 since 1966 in different areas of China were analyzed. It was found that the range area and imminent time of a coming earthquake could be confirmed quantitatively by analyzing the abnormal temporal and spatial variation of the value R[WTBZ]. The results showed that the temporal and spatial variation of the value Rcould quantitatively reflect the temporal and spatial factors of a coming strong earthquake as well as the rule of medium rupture.
引文
陈时军,王丽凤,马丽,等.2002.关于震级频度关系的一些讨论[J].地震学报,24(2):176~185
陈培善,白彤霞,李保昆.2003.b值和地震复发周期[J].地球物理学报,46(4):510~519
陈棋福.2002a.中国震例(1992—1994)[M].北京:地震出版社,358~390
陈棋福.2002b.中国震例(1995—1996)[M].北京:地震出版社,97~145
国家地震局震害防御司.1995.中国历史强震目录(公元前23世纪—公元1911年)[M].北京:地震出版社,1~512
韩渭宾,江道崇,杨虹,等.1989.借助R-t、D-t图结合震中分布图在四川地区圈定空区的研究[A].见:许绍燮,陆远忠,朱传镇,等编.地震预报方法实用化研究文集地震学专辑[C].北京:学术书刊出版社,25~40
黄建平,马丽,陈时军,等.2005.定量分析地震活动的活跃与平静特征[J].中国地震,21(3):417~428
李祥根.2003.中国新构造运动概论[M].北京:地震出版社,253~264
刘正荣.2004.地震预报方法[M].北京:地震出版社,42~53
陆远忠,沈建文,宋俊高.1982.地震空区和逼近地震[J].地震学报,4(4):327~336
陆远忠,王炜,沈建文.1983.地震空区和逼近地震(续)[J].地震学报,5(2):129~144
王丽凤,马丽,David Vere-Jones,等.2004.随机AMR模型的参数估计及其在几次强震中的应用[J].地震学报,26(2):162~173
王炜,刘震华.1987.地震时间间隔的统计分布及其地震危险度D值在华北大震前的异常变化[J].地震学报,9(2):113~127
王炜,戴维乐,黄冰树.1994.地震震级的统计分布及其地震强度因子Mf值在华北中强以上地震前的异常变化[J].中国地震,10(3):96~110
王炜,戴维乐,宋俊高.1999a.地震空间集中度C值在华北中强以上地震前的中期异常变化[J].地震研究,22(1):51~56
王炜,宋先月,刘峥,等.1999b.地震活动因子A值及其在华北地震中期预报中的应用[J].中国地震,15(1):35~45
尹祥础,尹灿.1991.非线性系统的失稳前兆与地震预报[J].中国科学(B辑),(5):512~518
尹祥础,陈学忠,宋治平,等.1994.加卸载响应比一种新的地震预报方法[J].地球物理学报,37(6):764~775
宇津德治(著).1987.李裕彻,卢振业,丁鉴海,等(译).1990.地震事典[M].北京:地震出版社,212~215
张肇诚.1988.中国震例(1966—1975)[M].北京:地震出版社,1~40,57~76,98~116,155~176,189~210
张肇诚.1990.中国震例(1976—1980)[M].北京:地震出版社,29~132
张志坚,戴华光,陈文斌,等.2001.阿尔金中段玉勒肯古地震地面形变系统的综合研究[A].见:李克主编.中国八级大震研究及防震减灾学术会议论文集[C].北京:地震出版社,216~223
中国地震局震害防御司.1999.中国近代地震目录(公元1912年—1990年MS≥4.7)[M].北京:中国科学技术出版社,1~633
中国地震局监测预报司.2002.强地震中短期预报方法及其效能研究[M].北京:地震出版社,315~356
Fedotov S A.1965.Regularities of the distribution of strong earthquakes in Kamchatka,the Kuril Islands and northeastJapan[J].Tr Inst Fiz Zemli,Acad Nauk SSSR,36(203):66~93(In Russian)
Gutenberg B,Richter C F.1944.Frequency of earthquakes in California[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,34:181~188
Gutenberg B,Richter C F.1954.Seismicityofthe Earth andthe Associated Phenomena[M].Princeton:Princeton UnivPress,1~38
Harte D S.1998.Documentation for the statistical seismology library[A].Sciences Research Report[R].School ofMathematical and Computing,93~98
Keilis-Borok VI,Kossobokov V G.1990.Premonitory activation of seismic flow:AlgorithmM8[J].Phys Earth PlanetInter,61:73~83
Keilis-Borok V,Shebalin P,Gabrielov A,et al.2004.Reverse tracing of short-term earthquake precursors[J].PhysEarth Planet Inter,145:75~85
Lomnitz C.1985.Tectonic feedback and earthquake cycle[J].Pure Appl Geophys,123:667~682
Lomnitz C.1993.Moment-ratio i maging of seismic regions for earthquakes prediction[J].Geophys Res Lett,20(20):2171~2174
Lomnitz C.1994.Fundamental of Earthquake Prediction[M].New York:John Wiley￡Sons,Inc,88~127
Lomnitz C.1996a.Predicting earthquakes with the MRI algorithm[J].Seismol Res Lett,67(6):40~46
Lomnitz C.1996b.Search of a worldwide catalogue for earthquakes triggered at inter-mediate distances[J].Bull SeismSoc Amer,86(2):293~298
Ma Li,Vere-Jones D.1997.Application ofM8and Lin-Lin algorithms to New Zealand earthquake data[J].NewZeal-and Journal of Geology and Geophys,40:77~89
Mogi K.1979.Two kinds of seismic gaps[J].Pure Appl Geophys,117:1172~1186
Nishenko S P.1985.Seismic potential for large and great interplate earthquakes along the Chilean and southern Peruvianmargins of South America:a quantitative reappraisal[J].J Geophys Res,90(B5):3589~3615
Schorlemmer D,Wiemer S.2004.Earthquake statistics at Parkfield:1Stationary ofbvalues[J].J Geophys Res,109:B12307,1~17
Wyss M,Wiemer S.1999.Howcan one test the seismic gap hypothesis?The case of a repeated rupturesinthe Aleutians[J].Pure Appl Geophys,155:259~278
陈培善,白彤霞,李保昆.2003.b值和地震复发周期[J].地球物理学报,46(4):510~519
陈棋福.2002a.中国震例(1992—1994)[M].北京:地震出版社,358~390
陈棋福.2002b.中国震例(1995—1996)[M].北京:地震出版社,97~145
国家地震局震害防御司.1995.中国历史强震目录(公元前23世纪—公元1911年)[M].北京:地震出版社,1~512
韩渭宾,江道崇,杨虹,等.1989.借助R-t、D-t图结合震中分布图在四川地区圈定空区的研究[A].见:许绍燮,陆远忠,朱传镇,等编.地震预报方法实用化研究文集地震学专辑[C].北京:学术书刊出版社,25~40
黄建平,马丽,陈时军,等.2005.定量分析地震活动的活跃与平静特征[J].中国地震,21(3):417~428
李祥根.2003.中国新构造运动概论[M].北京:地震出版社,253~264
刘正荣.2004.地震预报方法[M].北京:地震出版社,42~53
陆远忠,沈建文,宋俊高.1982.地震空区和逼近地震[J].地震学报,4(4):327~336
陆远忠,王炜,沈建文.1983.地震空区和逼近地震(续)[J].地震学报,5(2):129~144
王丽凤,马丽,David Vere-Jones,等.2004.随机AMR模型的参数估计及其在几次强震中的应用[J].地震学报,26(2):162~173
王炜,刘震华.1987.地震时间间隔的统计分布及其地震危险度D值在华北大震前的异常变化[J].地震学报,9(2):113~127
王炜,戴维乐,黄冰树.1994.地震震级的统计分布及其地震强度因子Mf值在华北中强以上地震前的异常变化[J].中国地震,10(3):96~110
王炜,戴维乐,宋俊高.1999a.地震空间集中度C值在华北中强以上地震前的中期异常变化[J].地震研究,22(1):51~56
王炜,宋先月,刘峥,等.1999b.地震活动因子A值及其在华北地震中期预报中的应用[J].中国地震,15(1):35~45
尹祥础,尹灿.1991.非线性系统的失稳前兆与地震预报[J].中国科学(B辑),(5):512~518
尹祥础,陈学忠,宋治平,等.1994.加卸载响应比一种新的地震预报方法[J].地球物理学报,37(6):764~775
宇津德治(著).1987.李裕彻,卢振业,丁鉴海,等(译).1990.地震事典[M].北京:地震出版社,212~215
张肇诚.1988.中国震例(1966—1975)[M].北京:地震出版社,1~40,57~76,98~116,155~176,189~210
张肇诚.1990.中国震例(1976—1980)[M].北京:地震出版社,29~132
张志坚,戴华光,陈文斌,等.2001.阿尔金中段玉勒肯古地震地面形变系统的综合研究[A].见:李克主编.中国八级大震研究及防震减灾学术会议论文集[C].北京:地震出版社,216~223
中国地震局震害防御司.1999.中国近代地震目录(公元1912年—1990年MS≥4.7)[M].北京:中国科学技术出版社,1~633
中国地震局监测预报司.2002.强地震中短期预报方法及其效能研究[M].北京:地震出版社,315~356
Fedotov S A.1965.Regularities of the distribution of strong earthquakes in Kamchatka,the Kuril Islands and northeastJapan[J].Tr Inst Fiz Zemli,Acad Nauk SSSR,36(203):66~93(In Russian)
Gutenberg B,Richter C F.1944.Frequency of earthquakes in California[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,34:181~188
Gutenberg B,Richter C F.1954.Seismicityofthe Earth andthe Associated Phenomena[M].Princeton:Princeton UnivPress,1~38
Harte D S.1998.Documentation for the statistical seismology library[A].Sciences Research Report[R].School ofMathematical and Computing,93~98
Keilis-Borok VI,Kossobokov V G.1990.Premonitory activation of seismic flow:AlgorithmM8[J].Phys Earth PlanetInter,61:73~83
Keilis-Borok V,Shebalin P,Gabrielov A,et al.2004.Reverse tracing of short-term earthquake precursors[J].PhysEarth Planet Inter,145:75~85
Lomnitz C.1985.Tectonic feedback and earthquake cycle[J].Pure Appl Geophys,123:667~682
Lomnitz C.1993.Moment-ratio i maging of seismic regions for earthquakes prediction[J].Geophys Res Lett,20(20):2171~2174
Lomnitz C.1994.Fundamental of Earthquake Prediction[M].New York:John Wiley￡Sons,Inc,88~127
Lomnitz C.1996a.Predicting earthquakes with the MRI algorithm[J].Seismol Res Lett,67(6):40~46
Lomnitz C.1996b.Search of a worldwide catalogue for earthquakes triggered at inter-mediate distances[J].Bull SeismSoc Amer,86(2):293~298
Ma Li,Vere-Jones D.1997.Application ofM8and Lin-Lin algorithms to New Zealand earthquake data[J].NewZeal-and Journal of Geology and Geophys,40:77~89
Mogi K.1979.Two kinds of seismic gaps[J].Pure Appl Geophys,117:1172~1186
Nishenko S P.1985.Seismic potential for large and great interplate earthquakes along the Chilean and southern Peruvianmargins of South America:a quantitative reappraisal[J].J Geophys Res,90(B5):3589~3615
Schorlemmer D,Wiemer S.2004.Earthquake statistics at Parkfield:1Stationary ofbvalues[J].J Geophys Res,109:B12307,1~17
Wyss M,Wiemer S.1999.Howcan one test the seismic gap hypothesis?The case of a repeated rupturesinthe Aleutians[J].Pure Appl Geophys,155:259~278
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