大连地区地震活动性分析及地震概率背景估计
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摘要
根据统计计算大连地区１９９１年１１月至 １９９９年１月发生的２９９个ＭL≥２．０地震，得出目前该地区的地震活动规律，并对这期间的地震变化趋势进行了理论分析和概率背景估计，认为其间所发生的地震属于１９９３年３月１８日的大连满家滩南海ＭＬ４．３地震序列，从理论值和实测值的结果判断，该地震序列发生 ＭＬ≥５．０的可能性不大， 但不能排除该地震序列仍然存在着发生４．０≤ＭＬ＜５．０地震的概率背景．目前的地震平静期属于该地震序列活动期的尾声和下一地震活动期能量积累的初级阶段．
Based on statistics of 299 earthquakes (ML≥2.0) from Nov. 1991 to Jan.1999, the rules of present earthquake activity in this region can be obtained. By analyzing the trend of earthquakes, the earthquake probability is also estimated We concluded that the earthquakes occurred during that period belong to the earthquake sequence of Dalian Manjiatan south-sea beach (ML4s.3). On the basis of the theoretical and practical survey values, we think that the probability of earthquakes (M>5.0) is less, but the bend of earthquakes (4.0 AL<5.0) still exists. The present silence term of earthquskes is between the end of this sequence and the initial stage of the next one.
Based on statistics of 299 earthquakes (ML≥2.0) from Nov. 1991 to Jan.1999, the rules of present earthquake activity in this region can be obtained. By analyzing the trend of earthquakes, the earthquake probability is also estimated We concluded that the earthquakes occurred during that period belong to the earthquake sequence of Dalian Manjiatan south-sea beach (ML4s.3). On the basis of the theoretical and practical survey values, we think that the probability of earthquakes (M>5.0) is less, but the bend of earthquakes (4.0 AL<5.0) still exists. The present silence term of earthquskes is between the end of this sequence and the initial stage of the next one.
引文
1李国利.等.大连市地震志大连:大连出版社,1990
2国家地震局震害防御司.地震工作手册.北京:地震出版社,1990
3中国科学院数学研究所统计组.常用数理统计方法.北京:科学出版社,1979
2国家地震局震害防御司.地震工作手册.北京:地震出版社,1990
3中国科学院数学研究所统计组.常用数理统计方法.北京:科学出版社,1979
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