摘要
运用极值分布理论对1970~1999年间台湾和华东地区的地震资料进行统计性研究,得出其地震相应震级的复发周期[T(M)]、理论发震次数(η)和华东地区中强地震的发震概率阈值(PO)。通过对T(M)的同比分析,发现两地中强地震存在着较好的相关性。用以上研究的结果对华东地区5级以上地震的发震概率、发震时间和地震强度进行综合判定,效果较好。
A statistical study is made of the data of earthquakes in Taiwan and in East China between 1970~1999 using extremevalue theory. As a result, the recurrence periods , the theoretical frequences (n) for earthquakes of various magnitudes as well as the thresholds of the probability of earthquake occurrences (P0) for moderate earthquakes in East China region are obtained. Based on a comparative analysis of the T(M), it is found that rather good correlation exists between the moderate earthquakes in the two regions. A combined a posterior estimation is made of the probabilities of earthquake occurrence, the origin times and the magnitudes for the earthquakes with magnitude above 5 in the East China region in this period using the results of the above mentioned study and rather good results are obtained.
引文
[1] 陈培善,林邦慧.极值理论在中长期地震预报中的应用[J].地球物理学报,1973(16):6-16.
[2] 郭绍忠,马殿军.极值理论在滇西北强震预报中的作用[A].董国胜,张朝方主编.多震区地震研究[C].昆明:云南科技出版社,1994.55-59.