汶川地震对地震预报工作的一些启示
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摘要
2008年5月12日四川汶川8.0级地震造成了巨大的人员伤亡和财产损失,认真研究和反思这次地震中所反映的地震预报方面的科学问题,对地震预报科学的发展是十分重要的。本文简要叙述了1966年以来地震预报工作和地震预报研究的进展情况,通过分析汶川8.0级地震的形成机理,对如何认识大型断层长期缓慢积累能量的特征,如何认识这种积累能量的方式在发震前出现的异常现象等进行了探讨。同时认为要清醒地认识到,类似的大型断层长期缓慢积累能量的方式不仅仅发生在汶川地震所处的龙门山断裂带,中国还有许多类似的断裂和构造环境。
The 5.12 Wenchuan, Sichuan, M8.0 earthquake resulted in enormous casualty and property loss. Studying and rethinking the scientific problems reflected by this earthquake is essential to earthquake forecast. This paper briefly introduces the earthquake forecast work and research process since 1966, and discusses how to understand the characteristics of energy accumulation of large active fault during a long term and the abnormality that would appear before the quake. Meanwhile, we should clearly realize that such energy accumulation pattern of large active fault during long term is not only occurred along the Longmenshan fault zone where Wenchuan earthquake happened, but also along many other similar faults and tectonic environment in China mainland.
The 5.12 Wenchuan, Sichuan, M8.0 earthquake resulted in enormous casualty and property loss. Studying and rethinking the scientific problems reflected by this earthquake is essential to earthquake forecast. This paper briefly introduces the earthquake forecast work and research process since 1966, and discusses how to understand the characteristics of energy accumulation of large active fault during a long term and the abnormality that would appear before the quake. Meanwhile, we should clearly realize that such energy accumulation pattern of large active fault during long term is not only occurred along the Longmenshan fault zone where Wenchuan earthquake happened, but also along many other similar faults and tectonic environment in China mainland.
引文
①http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/eqinthenews/2008/us2008ryan/finite_fault.php]
①http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/eq_depot/2008/eq_080512_ryan/neic_ryan_cmt.html
②http://www.globalcmt.org/CMTsearch.html
[1]傅征祥,刘桂萍,邵辉成,等.中国大陆百年:1901—2001年浅源强震活动及生命损失回顾与分析[J].地震学报,2005,27(4):367-376.
[2]张晓东,彭克银,孙士宏,等.地震监测预报体系发展规划研究[J].大地测量与地球动力学,2008,28(专刊):14-23.
[3]Reid H F.The California Earthquake of April18,1906:Report of the State Earthquake Investigation Commission:vol.2[R].The Mechanism of the Earthquake.Carnegie Institution of Washington,1910:19-32.
[4]Hess H.History of Ocean Basins[M]//Engel A E J,James H L,Leonard B F.Petrologic studies:A volume to honor A.F.Buddington.New York:Geological Society of America,1962:599-620.
[5]Aki K,Richards P G.Quantitative Seismology[M].2nd.Sausalito:University Science Books,2002:80.
[6]张培震,徐锡伟,闻学泽,等.2008年汶川8.0级地震发震断裂的滑动速率、复发周期和构造成因[J].中国地球物理学报,2008,51(4).
[7]蒋海昆,黎明晓,吴琼,等.汶川8.0级地震序列及相关问题讨论[J].地震地质,2008,30(3).
[8]陈运泰,许力生,张勇,等.2008年5月12日汶川特大地震震源特性分析报告[R/OL].北京:中国地震局地球物理所,2008.[2011-10-02].http://www.csi.ac.cn/sichuan/chenyuntai.pdf.
[9]徐锡伟,闻学泽,于慎鄂,等.汶川Ms8.0地震地表破裂带及其发震构造[J].地震地质,2008,30(3):597–629.
[10]中国地震局监测预报司.地震参数:数字地震学在地震预测中的应用[M].北京:地震出版社,2003:26-43.
[11]陈章立,赵翠萍,王勤彩,等.汶川Ms8.0级地震发生背景与过程的研究[J].地球物理学报,2009,52(2):455-463.
[12]Mogi.On the time distribution of aftershocks accompa-nying the recent major earthquakes in and near Japan[J].Bull Earthq Res Inst Univ Tokyo,1962a,40:107-124.
[13]Mogi.Study of elastic shocks caused by the fracture of het-erogeneous materials and its relation to the earthquake phe-nomena[J].Bull Earthq Res Inst Univ Tokyo,1962b,40:l-3l.
①http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/eq_depot/2008/eq_080512_ryan/neic_ryan_cmt.html
②http://www.globalcmt.org/CMTsearch.html
[1]傅征祥,刘桂萍,邵辉成,等.中国大陆百年:1901—2001年浅源强震活动及生命损失回顾与分析[J].地震学报,2005,27(4):367-376.
[2]张晓东,彭克银,孙士宏,等.地震监测预报体系发展规划研究[J].大地测量与地球动力学,2008,28(专刊):14-23.
[3]Reid H F.The California Earthquake of April18,1906:Report of the State Earthquake Investigation Commission:vol.2[R].The Mechanism of the Earthquake.Carnegie Institution of Washington,1910:19-32.
[4]Hess H.History of Ocean Basins[M]//Engel A E J,James H L,Leonard B F.Petrologic studies:A volume to honor A.F.Buddington.New York:Geological Society of America,1962:599-620.
[5]Aki K,Richards P G.Quantitative Seismology[M].2nd.Sausalito:University Science Books,2002:80.
[6]张培震,徐锡伟,闻学泽,等.2008年汶川8.0级地震发震断裂的滑动速率、复发周期和构造成因[J].中国地球物理学报,2008,51(4).
[7]蒋海昆,黎明晓,吴琼,等.汶川8.0级地震序列及相关问题讨论[J].地震地质,2008,30(3).
[8]陈运泰,许力生,张勇,等.2008年5月12日汶川特大地震震源特性分析报告[R/OL].北京:中国地震局地球物理所,2008.[2011-10-02].http://www.csi.ac.cn/sichuan/chenyuntai.pdf.
[9]徐锡伟,闻学泽,于慎鄂,等.汶川Ms8.0地震地表破裂带及其发震构造[J].地震地质,2008,30(3):597–629.
[10]中国地震局监测预报司.地震参数:数字地震学在地震预测中的应用[M].北京:地震出版社,2003:26-43.
[11]陈章立,赵翠萍,王勤彩,等.汶川Ms8.0级地震发生背景与过程的研究[J].地球物理学报,2009,52(2):455-463.
[12]Mogi.On the time distribution of aftershocks accompa-nying the recent major earthquakes in and near Japan[J].Bull Earthq Res Inst Univ Tokyo,1962a,40:107-124.
[13]Mogi.Study of elastic shocks caused by the fracture of het-erogeneous materials and its relation to the earthquake phe-nomena[J].Bull Earthq Res Inst Univ Tokyo,1962b,40:l-3l.
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