一次地震预测的案例
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摘要
2001年11月14日昆仑山8.1级地震后,川滇地区的震情引起了地震学者的普遍关注。文中详细阐述了针对当时川滇地区的多种地震与地震前兆观测项的观测异常形成的综合预测意见及预测三要素的判定,并探讨了8.1级地震对这一预测意见的影响及对经验性地震预报的认识。
After the Kunlunshan Earthquake with M=8.1 occurred on 14 November 2001, the earthquake situation in the area of Sichuan-Yunnan provinces in Southwestern China has arrested much attention from the experts. This paper elaborated the judgment of the three factors of the earthquake prediction and the synthetic prediction opinions based on the observed anomalies resulted from the earthquake events and the earthquake precursors, and discussed the effect of the Kunlunshan Earthquake on the prediction claims as well as the knowledge of earthquake prediction based on the experiences.
After the Kunlunshan Earthquake with M=8.1 occurred on 14 November 2001, the earthquake situation in the area of Sichuan-Yunnan provinces in Southwestern China has arrested much attention from the experts. This paper elaborated the judgment of the three factors of the earthquake prediction and the synthetic prediction opinions based on the observed anomalies resulted from the earthquake events and the earthquake precursors, and discussed the effect of the Kunlunshan Earthquake on the prediction claims as well as the knowledge of earthquake prediction based on the experiences.
引文
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[2] 赫尔曼·哈肯.协同学[M].上海:译文出版社,1995.
[3] 郭增建,陈鑫连.地震对策[M].北京:地震出版社,1986.
[4] 刘杰,傅征祥,陈学忠,等.2001～2003年我国强震活动趋势及重点危险区预测研究报告[A].中国地震局分析预报中心.中国地震趋势预测研究(2001年度)[C].北京:地震出版社,2000.
[5] 古普塔HK,拉斯托吉BK.水坝与地震[M].北京:地震出版社,1980.
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