中国大陆百年(1901～2001年)浅源强震活动及生命损失回顾与分析
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摘要
简要回顾和初步分析了中国大陆百年(1901～2001年)浅源地震活动(MS≥6.0)及生命损失的某些特征.1901～2001年中国大陆发生约420次6级以上的浅源强震,其中88%发生在大陆西部.其原因可能与西部活动地块的变形与运动相对强烈有关;大陆西部的平均震源深度(25km)比东部(16km)的深,这可能与大陆西部地壳厚度比东部明显的厚有关;震源深度随深度的不均匀分布,可能与地壳断层摩擦学和流变学性质随深度变化有关;大陆浅源强震活动呈现时空群集的过程;反映地震强度分布的震级(MS)频度(Nc)关系是lgNc=8.64-0.99MS.在1901～2001年间地震造成生命损失约60余万人,其中,河北省和宁夏回族自治区损失最大,地震死亡人数分别约是250700和246200人;地震死亡人数与地震震级的统计关系并没有显示出一种良好的线性相关关系,表明地震生命损失除了与地震释放的能量和地面震动大小有关外,还应与地震发生的时间、地震区的建筑物破坏程度和人口密度等多种因素直接相关.地震死亡人数(D)及其事件的累计频度(Nc)的关系是lgNc=2.40-0.39lgD,表明地震死亡人数的分布是分形的.
This paper reviews and analyses briefly the general characteristics of shallow strong earthquakes (M_S≥6.0, focal depth h≤70 km) in space, time and magnitude and earthquake fatalities of Chinese mainland in the centenary from 1901 to 2001. During the period from 1901 to 2001, there occurred about 420 strong shallow earthquakes with magnitude M_S≥6.0, 88% of them occurred in the western part of the mainland, which might be related to the strong deformation and motion of the active blocks in the western part. The average focal depth (25 km) in the western part is deeper than that (16 km) in the eastern part, which might be related to obviously thicker crustal thickness in the western part. The inhomogeneous distribution of focal depths with the depth profile is related to the variation of frictional and rheologic characteristics with depth in the crust. The shallow strong earthquake activity of Chinese mainland shows a tempo-spatial clustering process. The relation between earthquake magnitude M_S and cumulative frequency N_c is lgN_c=8.64-0.99M_S. About 600 000 people died by the earthquakes of Chinese mainland from 1901 to 2001, the most serious earthquake live losses occurred in Hebei Province (250 723 people died) and Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region (246 269 died). There is no a statistically linear relationship between earthquake live losses and magnitudes. The statistical relationship between the earthquake deaths D and cumulative frequency N_c is lgN_c=2.40- 0.39lgD, which shows a fractal distribution.
This paper reviews and analyses briefly the general characteristics of shallow strong earthquakes (M_S≥6.0, focal depth h≤70 km) in space, time and magnitude and earthquake fatalities of Chinese mainland in the centenary from 1901 to 2001. During the period from 1901 to 2001, there occurred about 420 strong shallow earthquakes with magnitude M_S≥6.0, 88% of them occurred in the western part of the mainland, which might be related to the strong deformation and motion of the active blocks in the western part. The average focal depth (25 km) in the western part is deeper than that (16 km) in the eastern part, which might be related to obviously thicker crustal thickness in the western part. The inhomogeneous distribution of focal depths with the depth profile is related to the variation of frictional and rheologic characteristics with depth in the crust. The shallow strong earthquake activity of Chinese mainland shows a tempo-spatial clustering process. The relation between earthquake magnitude M_S and cumulative frequency N_c is lgN_c=8.64-0.99M_S. About 600 000 people died by the earthquakes of Chinese mainland from 1901 to 2001, the most serious earthquake live losses occurred in Hebei Province (250 723 people died) and Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region (246 269 died). There is no a statistically linear relationship between earthquake live losses and magnitudes. The statistical relationship between the earthquake deaths D and cumulative frequency N_c is lgN_c=2.40- 0.39lgD, which shows a fractal distribution.
引文
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LiS,MooneyWD.1997.CrustalstructureofChinafromdeepseismicsoundingprofile[J].EOSTransAmGeophysUnion78,46(Suppl):470
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TurcotteDL,SchubertG.1982.Geodynamics[M].NewYork:JohnWilly&Sons,6～7
①中国地震局监测预报司预报管理处.1999.中国强地震目录(公元前20世纪—公元1999年).
陈颙,陈凌.1998.分形几何学[M].北京:地震出版社,163～167.
傅征祥,程燕.1986.中国大陆近代幕式地震活动的某些特征[J].地震,(2):28～35
傅征祥,刘桂萍,陈棋福.2001.青藏高原北缘海原古浪昌马大地震相互作用的动力学分析[J].地震地质,23(1):35～42
李延兴,杨国华,李智,等.2003.中国大陆活动地块的运动与应变状态[J].中国科学,D辑,33(增刊):65～81
楼宝裳.1996.中国古今地震灾情总汇[M].北京:地震出版社,1～272
马宗晋,傅征祥,张郢珍,等.1982.1966～1976年中国九大地震[M].北京:地震出版社,198～204
史志宏,刘占坡,殷秀华.1989.地壳厚度(重力反演)[A].见:马杏垣主编.中国岩石圈动力学地图集[C].北京:地震出版社,12
吴佳翼,曹学锋.1987.全球地震活动性定量研究(二)[J].地震学报,9(3):225～238
张国民.1987.我国大陆强震活动的韵律特征[J].地震地质,9(2):27～37
张国民,汪素云,李丽,等.2002.中国大陆地震震源深度及其构造含义[J].科学通报,47(9):1064～1071
张培震,邓起东,张国民,等.2003.中国大陆的强震活动与活动地块[J].中国科学,D辑,33(增刊):12～20
中国地震局监测预报司.1996.1990～1995中国大陆地震灾害损失资料汇编[M].北京:地震出版社,1～232
中国地震局监测预报司.2001.1996～2000中国大陆地震灾害损失资料汇编[M].北京:地震出版社,1～386
中国地震年鉴编委会.1997.中国地震年鉴(1995)[M].北京:地震出版社,137～182
中国地震年鉴编委会.2002.中国地震年鉴(2001)[M].北京:地震出版社,133～140
ByerleeJD.1978.Frictionofrock[J].PureApplGeophys,116:615～626
GutenbergB,RichterCF.1954.SeismicityoftheEarthandAssociatedPhenomena[M].NewJersey:PrincetonUniversity Press,16～20
HarrisRA.1998.Introductiontospecialsectionstresstriggers,stressshadows,andimplicationsforseismichazard[J].JGeo physRes,103(B10):24347～24358
JaoulO,TullisJA,KronenbergAK.1984.TheeffectofvaryingwatercontentonthecreepbehaviorofHeavitreequartzite[J].JGeophysRes,89:4289～4312
KaganYY,JacksonDD.1991.Long termearthquakeclustering[J].GeophysJInt,104(1):117～133
LiS,MooneyWD.1997.CrustalstructureofChinafromdeepseismicsoundingprofile[J].EOSTransAmGeophysUnion78,46(Suppl):470
SibsonRH.1982.Faultzonemodels,healflow,andthedepthdistributionofearthquakesincontinentalcrustoftheUnited States[J].BullSeismSocAmer,72:151～163
StrelauJ.1986.Adiscussionofthedepthextentofruptureinlargecontinentalearthquakes[A].In:DasS,BoatweightJ,ScholzCeds.EarthquakeSourceMechanics,AmericanGeophysicalUnionGeophysicsMonograph37[C].WashingtonDC:AmericanGeophysicalUnion,131～146
TurcotteDL,SchubertG.1982.Geodynamics[M].NewYork:JohnWilly&Sons,6～7
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