水库地震震级预测的讨论
|
摘要
作者于１９８７年提出用水库“综合影响参数Ｅ”预测水库地震最大震级Ｍ的方法以来，为许多工程和科研人员引用或讨论．后来，除Ｅ外我们又增加了最大库深Ｈｍａｘ，并把它们都视为具有随机统计偏差的变量进行回归．为使关心的读者更多了解本法，本文讨论了回归变量的物理意义及其随机性、回归方法、几种回归结果的比较，以及实际应用时的修正问题．
After the authors put forward the method, which uses "reservoir comprehensive affecting parameter,E" to predict the maximum magnitude,M,of reservoir-induced earthquake,certain persons use the method to predict M of new built reservoir,or predict earthquake tendency of a reservoir where earthquake occurred,or use it to research the other problems of reservoir induced earthquake,there is someone who researches the regression approach of M and E.Afterwards, the authors and the regression variable Hmax except E,and taken E and Hmax as variables with random statistical deviation. In order to enable readers futherly to understand the substance of this method, in this paper,the authors explain the physical means of the regression variables and thier radomness,second,discuss the regression approach, third, discuss the results of several regression approaches,end, propose the preliminary opinion on correct the predicted value of M.
After the authors put forward the method, which uses "reservoir comprehensive affecting parameter,E" to predict the maximum magnitude,M,of reservoir-induced earthquake,certain persons use the method to predict M of new built reservoir,or predict earthquake tendency of a reservoir where earthquake occurred,or use it to research the other problems of reservoir induced earthquake,there is someone who researches the regression approach of M and E.Afterwards, the authors and the regression variable Hmax except E,and taken E and Hmax as variables with random statistical deviation. In order to enable readers futherly to understand the substance of this method, in this paper,the authors explain the physical means of the regression variables and thier radomness,second,discuss the regression approach, third, discuss the results of several regression approaches,end, propose the preliminary opinion on correct the predicted value of M.
引文
1常宝琦，梁纪彬．水库＂规模＂与水库地震震级的关系．华南地震，1987，7（1）．2常宝琦，梁纪彬．水库地震最大震级的预测．人民珠江，1992，（5）．3常宝琦，梁纪彬．对＂水库地震震级预测的回归模型＂一文中两个问题的答复．华南地震，1993，13（3）．4ChangBaoqi．PreliminarystudyonthepredictionofreservoirearthquakesGerlandsBeitragezurGeophysikB．99，H．5，1990．5光耀华．水库地震震级预测的回归模型．华南地震，1993，13（2）．6陈益明．水库地震震害、对策及经验教训．灾害学，1988，（1）．7谭周地等．水库地震强度的概率预测模型及长江三峡工程水库地震可能发震水平的预测．水文地质工程地质，1989，（3）．8钟以章等．用灰色系统理论预测辽宁锦陵水库的诱发地震．华南地震，1990，10（4）．9黄乃安等．丹江口水库诱发地震趋势的判断．华南地震，1991，11（4）．10肖安予．南水水库地震及其发展趋势，华南地震，1990，10（2）．11谭周地等．长江三峡工程库首区地壳稳定性评价与水库诱发地震预测．地质出版社，1992．12任金卫．澜沧江小湾水库诱发地震构造条件分析．内陆地震，19915，7（1）．13陈希圣．对安康水库诱发地震的预测．内陆地震，1993，7（1）．14姜朝松．贵州洪家渡水库诱发地震前期研究．地震研究，1991，14（1）．15谭周地等．水库地震－人类工程活动诱发的灾害．华南地震。1989，9（4）．16 王国英．湖南省黄石水库地震考察与追踪．华南地震，1989，9（4）．17 王和章、浙江华光潭水库诱发地震预测．浙江地质，1990，（6）．
版权所有：© 2023 中国地质图书馆 中国地质调查局地学文献中心