2001年11月14日昆仑山口西8.1级地震前地震活动性异常及其思考
|
摘要
2001年11月14日在昆仑山口西发生了8.1级地震,震中位置为90.9°E、36.2°N。分析表明,8.1级地震前一些主要地震活动性异常都出现了,例如空区、条带、增强、平静和震群等,且与7级大震比较,这些前兆图象的演变具有类似的过程,所不同的是8.1级地震的前兆地震活动图象涉及的区域范围更大、地震震级更高,这为特大地震的前兆识别和预报提供了依据。最后回顾了对这次大震的粗略预测,并讨论了有关大震预测的某些问题。
A great earthquake of Ms = 8. 1 took place in the west of Kunlun Pass on No vember 14 , 2001. The epicenter is located at 36. 2°N and 90. 9°E. The analysis shows that some main precursory seismic patterns appear before the great earthquake, e. g. , seismic gap, seismic band, increased activity, seismicity quiet and swarm activity. The evolution of the seismic patterns before the earthquake of Ms = 8. 1 exhibits a course very similar to that found for earthquake cases with Ms = 7. The difference is that anomalous seismicity before the earthquake of Ms = 8. 1 involves in the larger area coverage and higher seismic magnitude. This provides an evidence for recognizing precursor and forecasting of very large earthquake. Finally, we review the rough prediction of the great earthquake and discuss some problems related to the prediction of great earthquakes.
A great earthquake of Ms = 8. 1 took place in the west of Kunlun Pass on No vember 14 , 2001. The epicenter is located at 36. 2°N and 90. 9°E. The analysis shows that some main precursory seismic patterns appear before the great earthquake, e. g. , seismic gap, seismic band, increased activity, seismicity quiet and swarm activity. The evolution of the seismic patterns before the earthquake of Ms = 8. 1 exhibits a course very similar to that found for earthquake cases with Ms = 7. The difference is that anomalous seismicity before the earthquake of Ms = 8. 1 involves in the larger area coverage and higher seismic magnitude. This provides an evidence for recognizing precursor and forecasting of very large earthquake. Finally, we review the rough prediction of the great earthquake and discuss some problems related to the prediction of great earthquakes.
引文
① 全国7级地震震情跟踪专家组.2002． 2001年度7级地震震情跟踪工作总结.震情研究,第一期.
陈玉华.2002． 库玛断裂带强震活动与地震空区研究[J].地震,22(2) :81～87
焦远碧,吴开统,杨满栋.1990． 中国地震台网监测能力及台网观测条件质量评定[J].中国地震,6(4) :1～7
刘蒲雄.1982． 强震前地震活动增强特征[J].地震,2(2) :5～8
刘蒲雄.1988． 溧阳、邢台、菏泽、南黄海地震的相互关系[J].地震学报,10(3) :236～246
刘蒲雄,黄德瑜,周胜奎,等.1989． 背景空区及其在地震预报中的应用[A].见:国家地震局科技司编.地震预报方法实用化研究文集(地震学专集)[C].北京:学术书刊出版社,41～55
刘蒲雄,陈章立.1989． 地震条带及其在地震预报中的应用[J].中国地震,5(1) :23～32
刘蒲雄.1993． 前兆地震活动图像及其在地震预报中的作用[J].中国地震,9(2) :112～120
刘蒲雄,陈兆恩,高伟,等.1997． 大震前地震活动图像演变及中期向短期过渡的地震活动性标志[J].地震,17(2) :113～125
陈玉华.2002． 库玛断裂带强震活动与地震空区研究[J].地震,22(2) :81～87
焦远碧,吴开统,杨满栋.1990． 中国地震台网监测能力及台网观测条件质量评定[J].中国地震,6(4) :1～7
刘蒲雄.1982． 强震前地震活动增强特征[J].地震,2(2) :5～8
刘蒲雄.1988． 溧阳、邢台、菏泽、南黄海地震的相互关系[J].地震学报,10(3) :236～246
刘蒲雄,黄德瑜,周胜奎,等.1989． 背景空区及其在地震预报中的应用[A].见:国家地震局科技司编.地震预报方法实用化研究文集(地震学专集)[C].北京:学术书刊出版社,41～55
刘蒲雄,陈章立.1989． 地震条带及其在地震预报中的应用[J].中国地震,5(1) :23～32
刘蒲雄.1993． 前兆地震活动图像及其在地震预报中的作用[J].中国地震,9(2) :112～120
刘蒲雄,陈兆恩,高伟,等.1997． 大震前地震活动图像演变及中期向短期过渡的地震活动性标志[J].地震,17(2) :113～125
版权所有：© 2023 中国地质图书馆 中国地质调查局地学文献中心