长江三峡工程库首及周缘地区水库诱发地震危险性定量预测与评估研究
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摘要
通过统计和分析已建成蓄水的水库及其周缘地区不同位置的诱震组合环境条件及诱震活动的结果,建立了定量预测与评估水库及其周缘地区各不同位置的诱发不同活动水平地震危险性的概率模型。运用所建模型对长江三峡工程库首及其周缘地区诱发地震的危险性进行了定量计算,并以概率等值线分布图的形式对预测和评估结果进行了表述。结果表明,长江三峡工程库首及其周缘地区各不同位置发生诱发地震的危险性是不均匀的,绝大部分位置发生诱发地震的概率较小,但少数地区也有可能诱发频繁的中、小地震甚至中强破坏性地震。
Based on the analyses of the environmental conditions of water induced earthquake and their induced seismicity results in reservoir area and its surrounding region, this paper proposes a model to quantitatively predict and assess the water induced seismimity risk in reservoir area. We divide the Yangtze Three-Gorge Reservoir and its neighboring area into 1330 units, and obtain the entire environmental conditions of each unit. By using the proposed model, the induced seismicity at different risk level of each unit are predicted and assessed, and the results are described with contours of induced seismic risk probability. It's shown that the induced seismicity risks of Yangtze Three-Gorge Reservoir and its neighboring area are not uniform. The induced earthquake risks of most units are very low, but in the units between Jiuwanxi and Xiangxi, units between Shuitianba and Zigui, units of southern Jieya and units near Guojiaba and Guangzhuangping, it's possible to frequently induce small earthquakes, and in some units near Xiangxi, Jieya, Guojiaba and Guangzhuangping, there are probabilities to induce moderately strong earthquakes.
Based on the analyses of the environmental conditions of water induced earthquake and their induced seismicity results in reservoir area and its surrounding region, this paper proposes a model to quantitatively predict and assess the water induced seismimity risk in reservoir area. We divide the Yangtze Three-Gorge Reservoir and its neighboring area into 1330 units, and obtain the entire environmental conditions of each unit. By using the proposed model, the induced seismicity at different risk level of each unit are predicted and assessed, and the results are described with contours of induced seismic risk probability. It's shown that the induced seismicity risks of Yangtze Three-Gorge Reservoir and its neighboring area are not uniform. The induced earthquake risks of most units are very low, but in the units between Jiuwanxi and Xiangxi, units between Shuitianba and Zigui, units of southern Jieya and units near Guojiaba and Guangzhuangping, it's possible to frequently induce small earthquakes, and in some units near Xiangxi, Jieya, Guojiaba and Guangzhuangping, there are probabilities to induce moderately strong earthquakes.
引文
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[2]国家地震局地震研究所.丹江口水库诱发地震文集[C].北京:地震出版社,1980.
[3]国家地震局地震研究所.中国诱发地震[M].北京:地震出版社,1984.
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[5]李安然,王清云,韩晓光,等.三峡水库诱发地震的总体环境组合条件[ A].中国科学院三峡工程生态与环境科研项目领导小组.长江三峡工程对生态与环境的影响及其对策研究论文集[C].北京:科学出版社,1987.553-563.
[6] D enlinger R P , Bufe J M . Reservoir ConditionsRelated to Induced Seismicity at the Geysers SteamReservoir, Northern California [J]. Bull. Seismol.Soc. Am.,1982,72:1317-1327
[7] Gupta H K, Narain H, Rastogi B K, et al. A Stud-y of the Koyna Earthquake of December 10,1967[J]. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am.,1969,59:1149-1162
[8] Gupta H K , Rastogi B K. Dams and Earthquakes[M]. Amsterdam: Elsevier,1976.
[9] Gupta H K, Iyer H M. Are Reservoir InducedEarthquakes of Magnitude >=5.0 at Koyna, IndiaPreceded by a Couple of Earthquake of Magnitude>=4.0?[J]. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am.,1984,74:863-873
[10]虞庭林.水库区地壳稳定性与地震预测研究的途径和方法[J].国际地震动态,1995(5):1-4
[11]张秋文.湖北清江姚家坪水库诱发地震可能性分析[J].地壳形变与地震,1995,15(增刊):50-56
[12] Gupta H K. The Present Status of Reservoir In-duced Seismicity Investigation with Special Empha-sis on Koyna Earthquake[J]. Tectonophysics,1985,118:287-279
[13] Keith C M, Simpson D W, Soboleva O V. InducedSeismicity and Style of Deformation at Nuek Reser-voir, Tadjik SSR [ J]. J Geophys Res.,1982,87:4609-4624
[14] Roeloffs E A. Fault Stability Changes Induced Be-neath a Reservoir with Cyclic Variations in WaterLevel[J]. J Geophys Res.,1988,93:2107-2124
[15] Simpson D W, Leith W S ,Scholz C H. Two Typesof Reservoir Induced Seismicity[J]. Bull. Seismol.Soc. Am.,1988,78:2025-2040
[16]张秋文,李安然,王清云,等.水库及其周缘地区诱发地震危险性评定的一种模型及其应用[J].地震地质,1998,20(4):361-369
[17]张秋文,王乘,李安然,等.水利水电工程及其周缘地区诱发地震危险性小区划研究[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2004,23(17):2925-2931
[18]张秋文,张培震.地理信息系统(GIS)在地震危险性分析中的应用[ J].地壳形变与地震,1999,19(1):82-86
[19]张秋文,张国安,王乘,等.水库诱发地震危险性定量预测与评估系统开发研究[ J].水电能源科学,2001,19(4):4-7
[2]国家地震局地震研究所.丹江口水库诱发地震文集[C].北京:地震出版社,1980.
[3]国家地震局地震研究所.中国诱发地震[M].北京:地震出版社,1984.
[4]李安然,韩晓光,徐永健.初探水库地震的形成机理及其诱发环境[J].华南地震,1987,7(2):81-89
[5]李安然,王清云,韩晓光,等.三峡水库诱发地震的总体环境组合条件[ A].中国科学院三峡工程生态与环境科研项目领导小组.长江三峡工程对生态与环境的影响及其对策研究论文集[C].北京:科学出版社,1987.553-563.
[6] D enlinger R P , Bufe J M . Reservoir ConditionsRelated to Induced Seismicity at the Geysers SteamReservoir, Northern California [J]. Bull. Seismol.Soc. Am.,1982,72:1317-1327
[7] Gupta H K, Narain H, Rastogi B K, et al. A Stud-y of the Koyna Earthquake of December 10,1967[J]. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am.,1969,59:1149-1162
[8] Gupta H K , Rastogi B K. Dams and Earthquakes[M]. Amsterdam: Elsevier,1976.
[9] Gupta H K, Iyer H M. Are Reservoir InducedEarthquakes of Magnitude >=5.0 at Koyna, IndiaPreceded by a Couple of Earthquake of Magnitude>=4.0?[J]. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am.,1984,74:863-873
[10]虞庭林.水库区地壳稳定性与地震预测研究的途径和方法[J].国际地震动态,1995(5):1-4
[11]张秋文.湖北清江姚家坪水库诱发地震可能性分析[J].地壳形变与地震,1995,15(增刊):50-56
[12] Gupta H K. The Present Status of Reservoir In-duced Seismicity Investigation with Special Empha-sis on Koyna Earthquake[J]. Tectonophysics,1985,118:287-279
[13] Keith C M, Simpson D W, Soboleva O V. InducedSeismicity and Style of Deformation at Nuek Reser-voir, Tadjik SSR [ J]. J Geophys Res.,1982,87:4609-4624
[14] Roeloffs E A. Fault Stability Changes Induced Be-neath a Reservoir with Cyclic Variations in WaterLevel[J]. J Geophys Res.,1988,93:2107-2124
[15] Simpson D W, Leith W S ,Scholz C H. Two Typesof Reservoir Induced Seismicity[J]. Bull. Seismol.Soc. Am.,1988,78:2025-2040
[16]张秋文,李安然,王清云,等.水库及其周缘地区诱发地震危险性评定的一种模型及其应用[J].地震地质,1998,20(4):361-369
[17]张秋文,王乘,李安然,等.水利水电工程及其周缘地区诱发地震危险性小区划研究[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2004,23(17):2925-2931
[18]张秋文,张培震.地理信息系统(GIS)在地震危险性分析中的应用[ J].地壳形变与地震,1999,19(1):82-86
[19]张秋文,张国安,王乘,等.水库诱发地震危险性定量预测与评估系统开发研究[ J].水电能源科学,2001,19(4):4-7
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