华北地区Benioff应变释放趋势拟合分析及预测
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摘要
基于地震活动稳态发展的假设,利用华北地区各构造(地震)带1970年以来的Benioff应变累积释放序列,采用多种非线性函数对各带的应变累积释放趋势进行拟合,根据最佳拟合模型对各带未来1~3年的应变释放量进行预测,并根据各带的线性震级频度关系,计算预测的应变释放量所对应的最大震级。
On the assumption that current state of earthquake activities in North China will go on,based on Benioff strain released series of different tectonic belts since 1970,many types of non-linear functions have been adopted to fit the strain cumulative release trend.By the proximal and optimal fitting model,the author gives the forecasts of Benioff strain release in the coming 1 to 3 years.According to the linear magnitude frequency law,the author also gives estimation of corresponding max magnitude for each tectonic belt.
On the assumption that current state of earthquake activities in North China will go on,based on Benioff strain released series of different tectonic belts since 1970,many types of non-linear functions have been adopted to fit the strain cumulative release trend.By the proximal and optimal fitting model,the author gives the forecasts of Benioff strain release in the coming 1 to 3 years.According to the linear magnitude frequency law,the author also gives estimation of corresponding max magnitude for each tectonic belt.
引文
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[10]苗青壮,蒋海昆.地震临界现象及相关尺度增长定量检测方法研究综述[J].地震,2008,28(2):79-86.
[11]Jiang Changsheng,Wu Zhongliang.Accelerating strain release before strong earthquakes:more complex in the real world[J].Journal of the Graduate School of the Chinese Academy of Sciences,2005,22(3):286-291.
[12]Sornette D,Sammis C G.Complex critical exponents from renormalization group theory of earthquakes:implications for earth-quake predictions[J].Journal de Physique I,1995,5(5):607-619.
[13]郭大庆杨立明.利用门限自回归建模和样条函数拟合方法研究甘肃东南部地区地震活动特征[J].西北地震学报,1992,14(2):20-29.
[14]彭美煊.华北地震区地震Benioff应变释放的灰色拓扑预测[J].地震,1992,12(6):44-50.
[15]苏乃秦,刘启泓,龙海英.新疆北天山中长期地震活动形势分析[J].内陆地震,2001,15(3):201-210.
①Ellsworth W L,Lindh AG,Prescott WH,et al.The 1906 San Francisco earthquake and the seismic cycle//Simpson D W,Richards P G.Earthquake Prediction,An International Review,1981:126-140.
[2]Zller G,Hainzl S,Kurths J,et al.A Systematic Test on Precursory Seismic Quiescence in Armenia[J].Natural Hazards,2002,26(3):245-263.
[3]Bufe C G,Varnes D J.Predictive modeling of the seismic cycle of the greater San Francisco Bay region[J].Journal of Geophysi-cal Research,1993,98(B6):987 1-988 3.
[4]JaumS C,Sykes L R.Evolving towards a critical point:a review of accelerating seismic moment/energy release prior to largeand great earthquakes[J].Pure and Applied Geophysics,1999,155(2/4):279-305.
[5]Knopoff L,Levshina T,Keilis-Borok V I,et al.long-range intermediate-magnitude earthquake activity prior to strong earth-quakes in California[J].J.Geophys.Res.,1996,101(B3):577 9-579 6.
[6]Papazachos B,Papazachos C.Accelerated pre-shock deformation of broad regions in the Aegean Area[J].Pure and Applied Ge-ophysics,2000,157(10):166 3-168 1.
[7]Brehm D J,Braile LW.Intermediate-termearthquake prediction using the modified time-to-failure method in southern California[J].Bull.Seism.Soc.Am.,1999,89(1):275-293.
[8]Ben-Zion Yehuda,Lyakhovsky Vladimir.Accelerated seismic release and related aspects of seismicity patterns on earthquakefaults[J].Pure and Applied Geophysics,2002,159(10):238 5-241 2.
[9]蒋长胜,吴忠良,史勇军.中强震前地震活动矩释放加速现象(AMR)的普遍性问题[J].中国地震,2004,(20)2:119-125.
[10]苗青壮,蒋海昆.地震临界现象及相关尺度增长定量检测方法研究综述[J].地震,2008,28(2):79-86.
[11]Jiang Changsheng,Wu Zhongliang.Accelerating strain release before strong earthquakes:more complex in the real world[J].Journal of the Graduate School of the Chinese Academy of Sciences,2005,22(3):286-291.
[12]Sornette D,Sammis C G.Complex critical exponents from renormalization group theory of earthquakes:implications for earth-quake predictions[J].Journal de Physique I,1995,5(5):607-619.
[13]郭大庆杨立明.利用门限自回归建模和样条函数拟合方法研究甘肃东南部地区地震活动特征[J].西北地震学报,1992,14(2):20-29.
[14]彭美煊.华北地震区地震Benioff应变释放的灰色拓扑预测[J].地震,1992,12(6):44-50.
[15]苏乃秦,刘启泓,龙海英.新疆北天山中长期地震活动形势分析[J].内陆地震,2001,15(3):201-210.
①Ellsworth W L,Lindh AG,Prescott WH,et al.The 1906 San Francisco earthquake and the seismic cycle//Simpson D W,Richards P G.Earthquake Prediction,An International Review,1981:126-140.
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