摘要
针对砂土地震液化危害具有随机性和不确定性,提出了砂土地震液化危害的概率分析方法,即用概率表示不液化、轻微液化、中等液化和严重液化,并给出了采用Monte Carlo法(蒙托卡罗法)计算液化危害概率的表达式。采用该方法对一算例进行了分析,认为概率分析方法能较清楚地反映液化危害程度。
As the hazard of sand seismic liquefaction is random, a probability method for assessing the hazard is proposed, that is, non-liquefaction, light liquefaction, middle liquefaction, and serious liquefaction are quantified with probability. The expressions to compute the liquefaction hazard probability are also proposed by the method of Monte Carlo. A case is analyzed by the probability method and the result shows that the probability method can be used to quantitatively assess the liquefaction hazard.
引文
[1] AnthonyT.C.Goh.Probabilistic neural network for evalu ating seismic liquefaction potential[J].Can.Geotech.J.2002,39:219-212
[2] DeStefano,A.,Sabia,D., andSabia,L..Probabilisticneural networks for seismic damage mechanisms prediction[J ].EarthquakeEngineering andStructuralDynamic,1999,28(8):807-821
[3] Liao,S.C.,Veneziano,D., andWhitman,R.V..Re gression models for evaluating liquefaction probability[J].Journal ofGeotechnicalEngineering,ASCE,1988,114(4):389-411
[4] Lu,M.,Abourizk,S.M., andHermann,U.H..Esti mating labor productivity using probability inference neuralnetwork.Journal ofComputing inCivilEngineering[J],ASCE,2000,14(4):241-248
[5] 李丛蔚,李广杰.在砂土液化的危险性评价中确定性与不确定性方法的应用研究[J].长春科技大学学报,2001,31(2):160-162
[6] 汪明武,李丽,罗国煜.基于MonteCarlo模拟的砂土液化评估研究[J].工程地质学报,2001,09(02):214-217
[7] GB50011-2001,建筑抗震设计规范[S].北京:中国建筑工业出版社,2002
[8] GB50021-2001,岩土工程勘察规范[S].北京:中国建筑工业出版社,2002
[9] DGJ08-11-2002,地基基础设计规范[S].2003
[10] 朱百里,沈珠江.计算土力学[M].上海:上海科学技术出版社,1990
[11] 高大钊.土力学可靠性原理[M].北京:中国建筑工业出版社,1989