中国大陆地震死亡率的标度律及其在预测中的应用
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摘要
研究了中国大陆华北地区、西南地区和西北地区自 1 5 0 0年以来因地震造成人员死亡率的自相似指数标度律 ,并将其应用于泊松模型中 ,对未来地震人员死亡数作了长期预测。预测表明 ,在 2 0 2 0年前 ,华北地区、西南地区发生地震死亡 1 0 0 0人以上事件以及西北地区发生地震死亡 1 0 0人以上事件的概率都在 0 .8以上。
This paper studied the self similar power scaling laws of earthquake live loss rates, during a period from 1500 to 2000 for North China, Southwest China and Northwest China respectively. The laws have been used in long term earthquake live loss prediction. The researches show that the occurrence probabilities of earthquake live losses of 1000 persons or more in North China and Southwest China, and 100 persons or more in Northwest China would be 0.8 or more before 2020 respectively.
This paper studied the self similar power scaling laws of earthquake live loss rates, during a period from 1500 to 2000 for North China, Southwest China and Northwest China respectively. The laws have been used in long term earthquake live loss prediction. The researches show that the occurrence probabilities of earthquake live losses of 1000 persons or more in North China and Southwest China, and 100 persons or more in Northwest China would be 0.8 or more before 2020 respectively.
引文
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[2] SmalleyR F,ChatelainJrJ L,TurcotteD L,et al.A fractal approach to the clustering ofearthquakes:applications to the seismicity of theNewHebrides[J].BullSeismSocAm,1987,77:1368-1381.
[3] GutenbergB,RichterC F.Seismicity of the earth and associated phenomena[M].PrincetonUniversityPress,1954.
[4] 龚鸿庆.中国地震死亡人数等级及频度[A].地震对策国际学术讨论会论文选集编委会.地震灾害对策[C].北京:学术书刊出版社,1989.341-345.
[5] 傅征祥.华北地区地震灾害人员死亡的概率预测研究初探[J].中国地震,1993,9(2):104-111.
[6] NishenkoS P,BartonC C.Scaling laws for natural disaster fatalities reduction& predictability ofnatural disasters[J].EdsRudle,Turcotte&Klein,SFI studies in theScience ofComplexity,Addison-Wesley,1996,XXV:3-17.
[7] 楼宝棠.中国古今地震灾情汇总[M].北京:地震出版社,1996.
[8] 国家地震局,国家统计局.中国大陆地震灾害损失评估汇编(1990～1995)[M].北京:地震出版社,1996.
[9] 中国地震局监测预报司.中国大陆地震灾害损失评估汇编(1996～2000)[M].北京:地震出版社,2001
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