基于抽样调查的安徽农村民居震害预测与减灾对策
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摘要
在安徽省的皖北、皖中和皖南地区,分别抽样4个乡镇总计781户农村民居,进行抗震性能调查,得出安徽省农村住宅在建筑年代、结构形式、建筑材料、地基基础及构造连接等方面的统计数据.在此基础上,运用建筑物地震易损性的概率分析法,对所调查的民居进行震害预测.分析表明,安徽农村民居在基本设防烈度地震作用下,尚不会发生毁灭性破坏,但中等破坏将较大面积发生.提出了农村民居防震减灾的政府管理和技术措施等对策.经济分析认为,增加约3%—4%建房投资,即可基本实现国务院的防震减灾目标.
We carried on an earthquake resistant capability investigation to the samples of total 781 village houses from 4 countryside regions in northern,middle and southern part of Anhui Province,and acquired data statistics on the building age,structure form,building material,groundwork foundation and structure conjunction,etc.On this basis,we estimated the earthquake damage of these buildings through probabilistic analysis of building earthquake disaster vulnerability.The analyzed result shows that the village houses in Anhui will not be fatally destroyed under the basic earthquake resistance intensity,but the medium damage is possible on a large scale.Countermeasures in governmental management and relevant techniques for preventing village houses suffering from earthquake disaster are proposed.Economical analysis result shows that the State Council's goal of earthquake disaster prevention will be achieved by increasing about 3% of housing construction investment.
We carried on an earthquake resistant capability investigation to the samples of total 781 village houses from 4 countryside regions in northern,middle and southern part of Anhui Province,and acquired data statistics on the building age,structure form,building material,groundwork foundation and structure conjunction,etc.On this basis,we estimated the earthquake damage of these buildings through probabilistic analysis of building earthquake disaster vulnerability.The analyzed result shows that the village houses in Anhui will not be fatally destroyed under the basic earthquake resistance intensity,but the medium damage is possible on a large scale.Countermeasures in governmental management and relevant techniques for preventing village houses suffering from earthquake disaster are proposed.Economical analysis result shows that the State Council's goal of earthquake disaster prevention will be achieved by increasing about 3% of housing construction investment.
引文
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中国地震局地球物理研究所,中国地震局工程力学研究所,中国地震局地质研究所,中国地震局地壳应力研究所,中国地震局分析预报中心.2001.中国地震动参数区划图GB18306-2001[S].北京:中国标准出版社:1-34.
孙柏涛,胡少卿.2005.基于已有震害矩阵模拟的群体震害预测方法研究[J].地震工程与工程振动,25(6):102-108.
王瑛,史培军,王静爱.2005.中国农村地震灾害特点及减灾对策[J].自然灾害学报,14(1):82-89.
王兰民,袁中夏,林学文.2005.甘肃农村民房地震易损性的调查与分析[J].世界地震工程,21(4):16-25.
王兰民,陶裕禄,袁一凡.2005.中国地震安全农居示范工程综述[J].西北地震学报,27(4):305-311.
温增平,高孟潭,赵凤新,李小军,吕红山,何少林.2006.统一考虑地震环境和局部场地影响的建筑物易损性研究[J].地震学报,28(3):277-283.
杨晓平,宋方敏,张兰凤,何宏林,李传友,王志才.2006.郯庐断裂带青峰岭断层上最新一次古地震事件[J].地震学报,28(2):213-218.
姚大全,刘加灿.2004.郯庐断裂带池河段的新活动[J].地震学报,26(6):616-622.
尹之潜.1995.地震灾害与损失预测方法[M].北京:地震出版社:38-63.
中国地震局震害防御司.1999.中国近代地震目录[M].北京:科学出版社:1-637.
中国地震局地球物理研究所,中国地震局工程力学研究所,中国地震局地质研究所,中国地震局地壳应力研究所,中国地震局分析预报中心.2001.中国地震动参数区划图GB18306-2001[S].北京:中国标准出版社:1-34.
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