海堤地震稳定性的模糊概率分析
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摘要
土坡稳定分析实为不确定性问题,它不仅具有随机性亦具有模糊性.文中首先探讨了这两种不确定性.为了获得更切合实际的情况,而将土坡稳定分析作为一模糊随机事件评价其模糊概率.最后以所建议的模糊概率方法分析,评价了某海堤的地震稳定性,结果表明该法能更全面地考虑问题的非确定性属性,评价结果合理.
The analysis of slope stability is really an uncertain problem, which has not only a random property, but also a fuzzy characteristic. These two uncertanties are first discussed in this paper. In order to get more practical uncertain results, the slope stability analysis is treated as a fuzzy random event to evaluate its fuzzy probability. Finally, the seismic stability of a existing coastal embankment is analyzed by means of the suggested fuzzy probalistic methed. It may be seen that the results of analysis can more fully represent the numerical assessment of the degree of slope seismic stability.
引文
[1]何广讷:论岩土工程中的安全度与模糊安全度,地基基础工程,1992年第2卷3期.
    [2]包承纲、于丽:土坡在非常条件下稳定分析的概率方法,岩土工程学报,1987年第9卷3期.
    [3]Yong R.N.,Alonso E.and Tabba M.M.:Application of Risk Analysis to the Prediction of Slope Instabi1ity,Canadian Geotechnique,J.14,1977.
    [4]何广讷、杨斌:海堤地震稳定性的概率分析,即将于《海洋工程》发表.
    [5]Subt P.:Safety Factors and the Probabilistic Distribution of Soil Strength,Canadian Geotechnique,J.7,1970.
    [6]黄克中,毛善培:《随机方法与模糊数学应用》,同济大学出版社,上海,1987年.
    [7]中国建设部:《港口工程技术规范(JTJ219—87)》,建筑工业出版社,北京,1987年.

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