城市地震的可接受死亡风险研究

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英文篇名：Research on acceptable casualty risk level for earthquake disasters in cities 中文刊名：自然灾害学报 英文刊名：Journal of Natural Disasters 作者：刘莉 ; 谢礼立 ; 胡进军 英文作者：LIU Li1 ; 2 ; XIE Li-li2 ; 3 ; HU Jin-jun2(1.Shandong Seismological Bureau ; Jinan 250014 ; China ; 2.Institute of Engineering Mechanics ; China Earthquake Administration ; Harbin 150080 ; China ; 3.School of Civil Engineering ; Harbin Institute of Technology ; Harbin 150080 China) 中文关键词：风险管理 ; 可接受风险 ; F-N曲线 ; ALARP准则 英文关键词：risk management ; acceptable risk level ; F-N curve ; ALARP principle 出版日期：2010-08-15 机构：山东省地震局;中国地震局工程力学研究所;哈尔滨工业大学土木工程学院; 年：2010 期：04 出版单位：自然灾害学报

摘要

可接受的风险水平是风险管理科学的一个重要内容。应用F-N曲线和ALARP准则研究了有关城市地震人员伤亡的可接受风险决策问题,结合其他各类自然和人为灾害所造成的人员伤亡的实际情况,以及相关领域专家的咨询意见,建议了社会可接受的地震生命风险标准。
This paper presents the study on the acceptable risk level for city's ability in reducing earthquake disasters.The so-called acceptable risk level refers to the threshold of the safety level based on the risk analysis and assessment.The paper mainly defines the acceptable risk levels for the corresponding risk-prevention measures,including failure probability and the consequences of measure failure,such as human casualty and economic loss,etc.In more detailed way,the paper discusseds the methods to use ALARP principle and F-N curve so as to determine the acceptable risk and their applications to the city's ability in reducing earthquake disasters.However,it remains a controversial issue to make accurate assessment of the acceptable risk level in the actual situations,which is still left to be solved through the joint efforts of the governmental departments,engineers,scholars and the public concerned.

引文

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