地震危险性估计的一种尝试
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摘要
本文根据三角网统一平差和跨断层测量资料,利用位错理论的反演方法,计算了唐山和北京、怀来地区几条主要断层滑动速率和滑动方向,其结果与我们用有限元方法计算的断层应力场配套.并获得三点结果:(1)断层滑动速率大,则断层上应力高,反之亦然;(2)断层滑动方向与断层应力场方向配套;(3)当跨断层短线长度年变化持续出现线性关系时,断层浅部与深部滑动一致,而且断层浅部滑动速率大,此即表示有发生地震的危险性.
In this paper,according to the triangulation and the crossing-fault survey data,several main fault's slip rates and directions are calculated by means of inversion of dislocation in Tangshan, Beijing and Huailai area. The results fit in with the fault stress field which is calculated by FEM,and from that weobtain three results: (l)On the fault plane,the more the fauJt slip rates are,the higher the stresses are,and vice versa; (2)The fault slip direction is in accordance to the fault stress field direction,which is calculated by FEM; (3)The fault shallow slip is consitent with the deep one when the crossing-fault's line - length variations are linear,and at the same time the fault shallow slip rates are larger. It means to be dangerous for earthquake to occur in the future .
In this paper,according to the triangulation and the crossing-fault survey data,several main fault's slip rates and directions are calculated by means of inversion of dislocation in Tangshan, Beijing and Huailai area. The results fit in with the fault stress field which is calculated by FEM,and from that weobtain three results: (l)On the fault plane,the more the fauJt slip rates are,the higher the stresses are,and vice versa; (2)The fault slip direction is in accordance to the fault stress field direction,which is calculated by FEM; (3)The fault shallow slip is consitent with the deep one when the crossing-fault's line - length variations are linear,and at the same time the fault shallow slip rates are larger. It means to be dangerous for earthquake to occur in the future .
引文
[1]国家地震局科技监测司.近期强震危险性研究.北京:地震出版社,1989,198—204
[2]宋惠珍,黄立人,华样文.地应力场综合研究.北京:石油工业出版社,1991,458—476.
[3]刘洁.断层深部不均匀滑动速率反演及地震重复周期的研究.国家地震局地质研究所,硕士研究生毕业论文,1991,3—13
[4]Harris, R. A.,and Segall,p,Detection of the locked zone at depth on the parkfield,California, segment of the San Andreas fault,J. G. R., 92, 1987, 7945—7962
[5]Segall,p.,and Harris,R. A., 1987,Earthquake deformation cycle on the San Andreas fault near Park field, California,J. G. R., 92, 10511—10525
[2]宋惠珍,黄立人,华样文.地应力场综合研究.北京:石油工业出版社,1991,458—476.
[3]刘洁.断层深部不均匀滑动速率反演及地震重复周期的研究.国家地震局地质研究所,硕士研究生毕业论文,1991,3—13
[4]Harris, R. A.,and Segall,p,Detection of the locked zone at depth on the parkfield,California, segment of the San Andreas fault,J. G. R., 92, 1987, 7945—7962
[5]Segall,p.,and Harris,R. A., 1987,Earthquake deformation cycle on the San Andreas fault near Park field, California,J. G. R., 92, 10511—10525
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