摘要
从模糊数学和灰色系统理论两个不同角度来分析地震事件,把模糊数学的表达方式用于灰色灾变预测GM(1,1)中,建立了地震预测的模糊灰色模型。用此模型讨论了南北天山四个区(带)的震级序列,在等维情况下,对比了模糊灰色方法与单纯灰色方法的优劣,讨论了影响预测结果的因素,最后给出了不同目标震级下各区(带)的预测值。
Combining the fuzzy mathematic expression with grey catastrophic predicting method GM (1, 1),seismic events are analyzed then. A fuzzy grey model for seismic prediction is set up to analyze the magnitude sequences that occurred in 4 zones in North and South Tianshan. In equidimensional conditions, merits and demerits of fuzzy -- grey method and pure grey method are compared. Factors that effect the predicting results are discussed as well. At last,predicting values of each zone for different objective magnitudes are given.