中国大陆强震组的预测研究
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摘要
地震活动图象无论在时间上还是在空间上都具有层层嵌套的自相似结构。我国大陆地区强震预报的基本程式是，在空间上由大到小，在时间上由长到短，逐步逼近地进行。与地震系统的层次结构大体相应。但是当对各个重点危险区作判定时却是彼此孤立进行的。对于已发生的强震的意义缺乏足够分析。本文根据强震成组的基本特点及前兆异常中存在地震组异常的基本事实，提出了地震组预测的原则和基本方法。
Seismicity patterns have multi-level-nested self-similarity structure both temporally and spatially. The basic procedure for strong earthquake prediction in China continent is:the spatial range predicted is from large to small,the temporal range predicted is from long to stort,then approaching the final prediction gradually. In general,this corresponds with the level structure of seismic systems. But the determination for each important danger area is made in isolation state,and the analysis for significance of strong earthquake occurred is not enough. Based on the basic characteristics that strong earthquakes can be grouped and the basic fact that there is earthquake group anomaly in precursory anomalies,the principle and basic method for earthquake group prediction have been put forward in the paper.
Seismicity patterns have multi-level-nested self-similarity structure both temporally and spatially. The basic procedure for strong earthquake prediction in China continent is:the spatial range predicted is from large to small,the temporal range predicted is from long to stort,then approaching the final prediction gradually. In general,this corresponds with the level structure of seismic systems. But the determination for each important danger area is made in isolation state,and the analysis for significance of strong earthquake occurred is not enough. Based on the basic characteristics that strong earthquakes can be grouped and the basic fact that there is earthquake group anomaly in precursory anomalies,the principle and basic method for earthquake group prediction have been put forward in the paper.
引文
［1］李钦祖等，华北地区大地震的成组活动特点，地震科学研究，1980，（1）．［2］万迪等，地震组异常及其识别，华北地震科学，1992，10（4）．［3］马宗晋等，中国的强震期和强震幕，中国地震，1987，3（1）．［4］梅世蓉等编著，一九七六年唐山地震，地震出版社，1982．
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