基于周期谱分析的线性合成概率预测方法在山东地区的应用
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摘要
以基于周期谱分析基础上的线性合成概率预测方法,对山东内陆主体及其邻近的南黄海、冀鲁豫交界等地区中强以上和中等地震进行了试验性分析研究。结果表明,最初以新疆地区7级以上地震为例研究的强震预测方法,用于山东及其邻近区域的中强以上和中等地震也有较好的检验效果。对各分区的回顾性检验结果表明,方法的R值评分一般在0.6以上,最低为0.5。最后依据展望性预测结果对山东内陆主体区、冀鲁豫交界和南黄海地区未来几年的地震趋势做了初步估计。
Author used the linear synthesis probability method based on periodical spectrum to analyzed the earthquakes above medium scale occured in shandong region and the south yellow sea, boundary region of Shandong, Hebei and Henan province, the result showed, the strong earthquake prediction method based on the M7 earthquakes occurred in Xinjiang had better test effect on the earthquakes above medium scale in Shandong and its near region. The test result of every section showed, its R value was higher than 0.6, the lowest value was 0.5. Author made a preliminary estimation of the earthquake tendency in the areas of Shandong, south yellow sea and the boundary area of Shandong, Hebei and Henan provinces about future several years according the outcome of prospect prediction.
Author used the linear synthesis probability method based on periodical spectrum to analyzed the earthquakes above medium scale occured in shandong region and the south yellow sea, boundary region of Shandong, Hebei and Henan province, the result showed, the strong earthquake prediction method based on the M7 earthquakes occurred in Xinjiang had better test effect on the earthquakes above medium scale in Shandong and its near region. The test result of every section showed, its R value was higher than 0.6, the lowest value was 0.5. Author made a preliminary estimation of the earthquake tendency in the areas of Shandong, south yellow sea and the boundary area of Shandong, Hebei and Henan provinces about future several years according the outcome of prospect prediction.
引文
[1]王海涛,龙海英.基于地震周期谱分析的线性合成概率预测方法研究[J].内陆地震,2003,17(4):289—293.
[2]王海涛,龙海英.基于地震周期谱分析的强强发生时间预测方法研究[J].地震,2004,增刊,10—18.
[3]张永久.用线性合成概率方法研究川滇地震趋势[J],高原地震,2004,16(3):16—22.
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[2]王海涛,龙海英.基于地震周期谱分析的强强发生时间预测方法研究[J].地震,2004,增刊,10—18.
[3]张永久.用线性合成概率方法研究川滇地震趋势[J],高原地震,2004,16(3):16—22.
[4]马宗晋,傅征祥,张郢珍,等.1966—1996年中国九大地震[M].北京:地震出版社,1981.
[5]国家地震局震害防御司.中国历史强震目录(公元前23世纪—世纪公元1911)[M].北京:地震出版社,1995.
[6]中国地震局震害防御司编.中国近代地震目录(公元1912—1990年MS≥4.7)[M].北京:中国科学技术出版社,1999.
[7]许兆燮.地震预报能力评分[A].国家地震局科技监测司.地震预报方法实用化研究文集—地震学专集[C].北京:学术期刊出版社,1989.
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