景泰-天祝断裂单元与多重特征地震的危险性概率评估
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摘要
基于景泰 -天祝断裂的大比例活动构造填图资料 ,建立了合理的破裂分段地质模型。在此基础上 ,采用地震危险性分析的“实时模型”并考虑断层段之间的相互作用 ,对景泰 -天祝断裂的大震危险性概率作了定量评估。所得结果认为 ,景泰 -天祝断裂的下次大震很可能是毛毛山与金强河两个单元破裂段的组合破裂 ,震级约MS7 5。未来 10 ,2 0 ,5 0 ,10 0a内最可能的发震概率分别是 14%、2 7%、5 6 %和 81%。
Based on the results of large scale geological mapping (1/50000), we established a reasonable rupture-segmentation model for the Jingtai-Tianzhu active fault. The model comprises two large pull-apart basins on both ends of the fault and two relatively large discontinuous structures along the fault.The basins are considered as "stable barriers" constraining the maximum surface rupture of the Jingtai-Tianzhu active fault, while the two large discontinuons structures are considered as "unstable barriers". Thus, the Jingtai-Tianzhu active fault can be divided into three rupture units or segments the Jinqianghe segment, Maomaoshan segment and Laohushan segment with lengths of 34 km, 56 km and 62 km, respectively.Existing evidences show that each segment has its own characteristic earthquakes, and all the segments may rupture together because of the interaction between each other. Using the "real time probabilty model" and considering the interaction between the neighboring rupture segments, we estimated the recurrence probabilities of large earthquakes along the fault. The results suggest that in the next 100 years, the Laohushan segment has little possibility for an earthquake larger than M S7.2 to occar, whereas the other two segments have some potentialities. In the future, although the pessibility of rupture to occur on Maomaoshan and Jinqianghe segments is random it seems that the rupture on one segment will irritate the rupture on the other segment. That is, the next large earthquake on the Jingtai-Tianzhu fault is most proloably the resault of a combined rupture of the Maomaoshan and Jinqianghe segments. The magnitude is estimated at about M S7.5, and the preferred probabilities in the next 10 , 20, 50, 100 years are 14%, 27%, 56% and 81%, respectively.
Based on the results of large scale geological mapping (1/50000), we established a reasonable rupture-segmentation model for the Jingtai-Tianzhu active fault. The model comprises two large pull-apart basins on both ends of the fault and two relatively large discontinuous structures along the fault.The basins are considered as "stable barriers" constraining the maximum surface rupture of the Jingtai-Tianzhu active fault, while the two large discontinuons structures are considered as "unstable barriers". Thus, the Jingtai-Tianzhu active fault can be divided into three rupture units or segments the Jinqianghe segment, Maomaoshan segment and Laohushan segment with lengths of 34 km, 56 km and 62 km, respectively.Existing evidences show that each segment has its own characteristic earthquakes, and all the segments may rupture together because of the interaction between each other. Using the "real time probabilty model" and considering the interaction between the neighboring rupture segments, we estimated the recurrence probabilities of large earthquakes along the fault. The results suggest that in the next 100 years, the Laohushan segment has little possibility for an earthquake larger than M S7.2 to occar, whereas the other two segments have some potentialities. In the future, although the pessibility of rupture to occur on Maomaoshan and Jinqianghe segments is random it seems that the rupture on one segment will irritate the rupture on the other segment. That is, the next large earthquake on the Jingtai-Tianzhu fault is most proloably the resault of a combined rupture of the Maomaoshan and Jinqianghe segments. The magnitude is estimated at about M S7.5, and the preferred probabilities in the next 10 , 20, 50, 100 years are 14%, 27%, 56% and 81%, respectively.
引文
刘百篪等,1994,“北祁连山活动断裂东段1/5万地质填图和特征地震研究”项目工作报告
丁国瑜.1992.有关活断层分段的一些问题〔J〕.中国地震,8(2)1～9.
DINGGuo yu.1992.Someissuesonthesegmentationofactivefaults〔J〕.EarthquakeResearchinChina,8(2):1～9(inChinese).
邓起东,于贵华,叶文华.1992.地震地表破裂参数与震级关系的研究〔A〕.见:国家地震局地质研究所编.活动断裂研究(2).北京:地震出版社.247～264.
DENGQi dong,YUGui hua.YEWen hua.1992.Relationshipsbetweenearthquakemagnitudeandparametersofsurfacerupturesassociatedwithhistoricalearthquakes〔A〕.In:InstituteofGeology,SSB ,ed.ResearchonAc tiveFault(2),Beijing:SeismologicalPress.247～264(inChinese).
龚钢延.1986.震源断层的长度与错动幅度之间关系的讨论〔J〕.西北地震学报,8(1):24～40.
GONGGang yan.1986.Discussiononrelationshipbetweenthelengthofrupturefaultandsurfacedisplacement〔J〕.NorthwesternSeismologicalJournal,8(1):24～40(inChinese).
甘卫军,刘百篪,黄雅虹.1998.板内大震复发间隔的概率分布〔J〕.西北地震学报,21(1):7～16.
GANWei jun,LIUBai chi,HUANGYa hong.1999.Probabilitydistributionofrecurrenceintervalsofintra platelargeearthquakes〔J〕.NorthwesternSeismologicalJournal,21(1):7～16(inChinese).
郭增建,秦保燕.1979.震源物理〔M〕.北京:地震出版社
GUOZen jian,QINGBao yan.1979.PhysicsofSeismicSource〔M〕.Beijing:SeismologicalPress(inChinese).
刘百篪.1987.活断层带的特征滑动行为与中强以上地震序列〔J〕.中国地震,3(3):60～67
LIUBai chi.1987.TheCharacteristicslipbehaviorandthesequenceofmoderateandstrongearthquakesintheactivefaultzone〔J〕.EarthquakeResearchinChina,3(3):60～67(inChinese)
闻学泽.1991.活断层的定量研究与长期地震潜势的概率估计问题〔A〕.见:国家地震局地质研究所编.活动断裂研究(1).北京:地震出版社.174～183.
WENXue ze.1991.Problemonquantitativestudyofactivefaultandprobabilisticestimationoflong termseismicpotential〔A〕.In:InstituteofGeology,SSB ,ed.ResearchonActiveFault(1).Beijing:SeismologicalPress.174～183(inChinese).
闻学泽,张培震.1996.地震原地复发模式理论及其有关问题〔A〕.见:国家地震局地质研究所编.活动断裂研究(5).北京:地震出版社.1～11.
WENXue ze,ZHANGPei zhen.1996.Earthquakerecurrencemodelsandassociatedproblems〔A〕.In:InstituteofGeology,SSB ,ed.ResearchonActiveFault(5).Beijing:SeismologicalPress.1～11(inChinese).
张培震,毛凤英.1996.活动断裂定量研究与中长期强地震危险性概率评估〔A〕.见:国家地震局地质研究所编.活动断裂研究(5).北京:地震出版社.12～31.
ZHANGPei zhen,MAOFeng ying.1996.Activefaultingandfaultspecificprobabilisticseismichazardassessment〔A〕.In:InstituteofGeology,SSB ,ed.ResearchonActiveFault(5).Beijing:SeismologicalPress.12～31(inChinese).
AkiK .1979.Characterizationofbarriersonanearthquakefault〔J〕.JGeophysRes,84:6140～6148.
AllenCR .1968.ThetectonicenvironmentsofseismicactiveandinactiveareaalongtheSanAndreasfaultsystem〔C〕.ProceedingsoftheSanAndreasFaultSystem,StanfordUniversityPublication,GeologicalScience,11:72～82.
CornellCA .1968.Engineeringseismicriskanalysis〔J〕.BullSeismSocAm,58:1593～1606.
CornellCA ,etal.1993.Seismichazardinducedbymechanicallyinteractivefaultsegments〔J〕.BullSeismSocAm,83:436～449.
KnuerpferPLK .1989.Implicationsofthecharacteristicsofendpointsofhistoricalsurfacefaultrupturesforthena tureoffaultsegmentation〔R〕.US .Geol.SurvOpenFileRep.890315,193～228.
NishenkoSP ,BulandR .1987.Agenericrecurrenceintervaldistributionforearthquakeforecasting〔J〕.BullSeismSocAm,77:1382～1399.
SchwartzDP ,CoppersmithKJ .1986.Seismichazards:newtrendsinanalysisusinggeologicdata〔A〕.In:ActiveTectonics,WashingtonDC :NationalAcademyPress,215～230.
SlemmonsDB .1982.Aprocedureforanalyzingfault controlledlineamentandactivefault〔C〕.Proceedings3rdInter nationalConferenceonBasementTectonicAssociation,P33.
allaceRE .1970.EarthquakerecurrenceintervalontheSanAndreasfault〔J〕.GeolSocAmBull,81:2875～2890.
丁国瑜.1992.有关活断层分段的一些问题〔J〕.中国地震,8(2)1～9.
DINGGuo yu.1992.Someissuesonthesegmentationofactivefaults〔J〕.EarthquakeResearchinChina,8(2):1～9(inChinese).
邓起东,于贵华,叶文华.1992.地震地表破裂参数与震级关系的研究〔A〕.见:国家地震局地质研究所编.活动断裂研究(2).北京:地震出版社.247～264.
DENGQi dong,YUGui hua.YEWen hua.1992.Relationshipsbetweenearthquakemagnitudeandparametersofsurfacerupturesassociatedwithhistoricalearthquakes〔A〕.In:InstituteofGeology,SSB ,ed.ResearchonAc tiveFault(2),Beijing:SeismologicalPress.247～264(inChinese).
龚钢延.1986.震源断层的长度与错动幅度之间关系的讨论〔J〕.西北地震学报,8(1):24～40.
GONGGang yan.1986.Discussiononrelationshipbetweenthelengthofrupturefaultandsurfacedisplacement〔J〕.NorthwesternSeismologicalJournal,8(1):24～40(inChinese).
甘卫军,刘百篪,黄雅虹.1998.板内大震复发间隔的概率分布〔J〕.西北地震学报,21(1):7～16.
GANWei jun,LIUBai chi,HUANGYa hong.1999.Probabilitydistributionofrecurrenceintervalsofintra platelargeearthquakes〔J〕.NorthwesternSeismologicalJournal,21(1):7～16(inChinese).
郭增建,秦保燕.1979.震源物理〔M〕.北京:地震出版社
GUOZen jian,QINGBao yan.1979.PhysicsofSeismicSource〔M〕.Beijing:SeismologicalPress(inChinese).
刘百篪.1987.活断层带的特征滑动行为与中强以上地震序列〔J〕.中国地震,3(3):60～67
LIUBai chi.1987.TheCharacteristicslipbehaviorandthesequenceofmoderateandstrongearthquakesintheactivefaultzone〔J〕.EarthquakeResearchinChina,3(3):60～67(inChinese)
闻学泽.1991.活断层的定量研究与长期地震潜势的概率估计问题〔A〕.见:国家地震局地质研究所编.活动断裂研究(1).北京:地震出版社.174～183.
WENXue ze.1991.Problemonquantitativestudyofactivefaultandprobabilisticestimationoflong termseismicpotential〔A〕.In:InstituteofGeology,SSB ,ed.ResearchonActiveFault(1).Beijing:SeismologicalPress.174～183(inChinese).
闻学泽,张培震.1996.地震原地复发模式理论及其有关问题〔A〕.见:国家地震局地质研究所编.活动断裂研究(5).北京:地震出版社.1～11.
WENXue ze,ZHANGPei zhen.1996.Earthquakerecurrencemodelsandassociatedproblems〔A〕.In:InstituteofGeology,SSB ,ed.ResearchonActiveFault(5).Beijing:SeismologicalPress.1～11(inChinese).
张培震,毛凤英.1996.活动断裂定量研究与中长期强地震危险性概率评估〔A〕.见:国家地震局地质研究所编.活动断裂研究(5).北京:地震出版社.12～31.
ZHANGPei zhen,MAOFeng ying.1996.Activefaultingandfaultspecificprobabilisticseismichazardassessment〔A〕.In:InstituteofGeology,SSB ,ed.ResearchonActiveFault(5).Beijing:SeismologicalPress.12～31(inChinese).
AkiK .1979.Characterizationofbarriersonanearthquakefault〔J〕.JGeophysRes,84:6140～6148.
AllenCR .1968.ThetectonicenvironmentsofseismicactiveandinactiveareaalongtheSanAndreasfaultsystem〔C〕.ProceedingsoftheSanAndreasFaultSystem,StanfordUniversityPublication,GeologicalScience,11:72～82.
CornellCA .1968.Engineeringseismicriskanalysis〔J〕.BullSeismSocAm,58:1593～1606.
CornellCA ,etal.1993.Seismichazardinducedbymechanicallyinteractivefaultsegments〔J〕.BullSeismSocAm,83:436～449.
KnuerpferPLK .1989.Implicationsofthecharacteristicsofendpointsofhistoricalsurfacefaultrupturesforthena tureoffaultsegmentation〔R〕.US .Geol.SurvOpenFileRep.890315,193～228.
NishenkoSP ,BulandR .1987.Agenericrecurrenceintervaldistributionforearthquakeforecasting〔J〕.BullSeismSocAm,77:1382～1399.
SchwartzDP ,CoppersmithKJ .1986.Seismichazards:newtrendsinanalysisusinggeologicdata〔A〕.In:ActiveTectonics,WashingtonDC :NationalAcademyPress,215～230.
SlemmonsDB .1982.Aprocedureforanalyzingfault controlledlineamentandactivefault〔C〕.Proceedings3rdInter nationalConferenceonBasementTectonicAssociation,P33.
allaceRE .1970.EarthquakerecurrenceintervalontheSanAndreasfault〔J〕.GeolSocAmBull,81:2875～2890.
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