引文
Aggarwal Y P,Sykes L R,Simpson D W and Richards P G.1975.Spatial and temporal variations in t_a/t_p and in P-wave re- siduals at Blue Mountain Lake.New York:Application to earthquake prediction[J].J Geophys Res,80,718~732
Aki K.1980.Possibilities of seismology in the 1980s[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,70,1969~1976
Aki K.2002.Synthesis of earthquake science information and its public transfer:A history of the Southern California Earth- quake Center.In:Lee W H K,Kanamori H,Jennings P and Kisslinger C(eds),International Handbook of Earthquake and Engineering Seismology[M].Pt A,Academic Press,San Diego,39~49
Allen C R and Helmberger D V.1973.Search for temporal changes in seismic velocities using large explosions in southern California.In:Kovach,R.L.and Nur,A.(eds.),Proceedings of the Conference on Tectonic Problems of the San An- dress Fault System[M].Stanford University Publications in Geological Science 13,Stanford,California,436~452
Allen C R.1982.Earthquake prediction—1982 overview[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,72,S331~S335
Ando M.1975.Possibility of a major earthquake in the Tokai district,Japan,and its pre-estimated seismotectonic effects[J]. Tectonophysics,25,69~85
Bak P.1996.How Nature Works:The Science of Self-Organized Criticality[M].Springer-Verlag,New York,226pp
Bak P and Tang C.1989.Earthquakes as a self-organized critical phenomenon[J].J Geophys Res,94,15 635~15 637
Bak P,Tang C and Wiesenfeld K.1987.Self-organized criticality:An explanation[J].Phys Rev Lett,59,381~384
Bak P,Tang C and Wiesenfeld K.1988.Self-organized criticality[J].Phys Rev,A38,364~374
Bekun W H and Lindh A G.1985.The Parkfield,California earthquake prediction experiment[J].Science,229,619~624
Bakun W H and McEvilly T V.1979.Earthquakes near Parkfield,California:Comparing the 1934 and 1966 sequences[J]. Science,205,1 375~1 377
Bakun W H and McEvilly T V.1984.Recurrence models and Parkfield,California earthquakes[J].J Geophys Res,89, 3 051~3 058
Bakun W H,Aagaard B,Dost B,Ellsworth W L,Hardebeck J L,Harris R A,Ji C,Johnston M J S,Langbein J,Lien- kaemper J J,Michael A J,Murray J R,Nedeau R M,Reasenberg P A,Reichle M S,Roeloffs E A,Shakal A,Simpson R W and Waldhauser F.2005.Implications for prediction and hazard assessment from the 2004 Parkfield earthquake[J]. Nature,437,969~974
Ben-Zion Y,Rice J R and Dmowska R.1993.Interaction of the San Andreas fault creeping segment with adjacent great rup- ture zones,and earthquake recurrence at Parkfield[J].J Geophys Res,98,2 135~2 144
Bowman J R.1997.Case 22:A seismicity precursor to a sequence of Ms 6.3—6.7 midplate earthquakes in Australia[J].Pure Appl Geophys,149,61~78
Brune J N.1979.Implications of earthquake triggering and rupture propagation for earthquake prediction based on premonito- ry phenomena[J].J Geophys Res,84,2 195~2 198
Bufe C G,Harsh P W and Burford R O.1977.Steady-state seismic slip—A precise recurrence model[J].Geophys Res Lett, 4,91~94
Burridge B and Knopoff L.1967.Model and theoretical seismicity[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,57,341~371
Cisternas A.2006.Montessus de Ballore pionero de la Sismologia:El hombre y suobra.International Conference Montessus de Ballore 1906 Valparaiso Earthquake Centennial[M].Santiago 6-8 November,2006
Darwin C.1898.Journal of Researches into the National History and Geology of the Countries During the Voyage of H M S. Beagle Round the World Under the Command of Capt[M].Fitz Roy,R.N.D.Appleton and Co.,New York
Deng J and Sykes L.1997.Evolution of the stress field in southern California and triggering of moderate-size earthquakes:A 200-year perspective[J].J Geophys Res,102,9 859~9 886
Dieterich J H.1978.Preseismic fault slip and earthquake prediction[J].J Geophys Res,83,3 940~3 948
EarthScope Working Group,Earthscope Project Plan,2001.EarthScope:A New View into the Earth[R].36pp
Engdahl E R and Villasenor A.2002.Global seismicity:1900—1999.In:Lee W H K,Kanamori H,Jennings P and Kisslinger C(eds),International Handbook of Earthquake and Engineering Seismology[M].Pt.A,Academic Press,San Diego,665~690
Geller R J.1991a.Shake-up for earthquake prediction[J].Nature,352,275~276
Geller R J.1991b.Unpreditabh earthquakes[J].Nature,353,612
Getter R J.1997.Earthquake prediction:A critical review[J].Geophys J Int,131,425~450
Geller R J,Jackson D D,Kagan Y Y and Mulargia F.1997a.Earthquake cannot be predicted[J].Sciense,275,1 616~1 617
Geller R J,Jackson D D,Kagan Y Y and Mulargia F.1997b.Cannot earthquake be predicted[J].Sciense,278,488~490
Habermann R E.1988.Precursory seismic quiescence:Past,present,and future[J].Pure Appl Geophys,126,277~318
Hamada K.1991.Unpredictable earthquakes[J].Nature,353,611~612
Harris R A.1998.Forecasts of the 1989 Loma Prieta,California earthquake[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,88,898~916
Harris R A and Simpson R W.1996.Stress relaxation shadows and the suppression of earthquakes:Some examples from Ca- lifornia and their possible uses for earthquake hazard estimates[J].Seism Res Lett,67,40
Harris R A and Simpson R W.1998.Suppression of large earthquakes by stress shadows:A comparison of Coulomb and rate- and-state failure[J].J Geophys Res,103,24 439~24 451
Healy T H,Kossobokov V G and Dewey I W.1992.A Test to Evaluate the Earthquake Prediction Algorithm MS[M].U S. Ge-ological Survey Open-Fih Report 92-401,Denver,Colo.,23pp
http//www,earthquake,usgs.gov
Imamura A.1928.On the seismic activity of central Japan[J].Jap Jour Astron Geophys,6,119~137
Ito K and Matsuzaki M.1990.Earthquakes as self-organized critical phenomena[J].J Geophys Res,95,6 853~6 860
Kagan Y.1997.Statistical aspects of Parkfield earthquake sequence and Parkfield prediction[J].Tectonophysics,270, 207~219
Kagan Y and Wesnousky S.1996.The Gutenberg-Richter or characteristic earthquake distribution.Which is it? Discussion and Reply[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,86,274~291
Kanamori H.1983.Global.seismicity.In:Kanamori H and Boschi E(eds.),Earthquakes:Observation,Theory and Inter- pretation[M].Elsevier North-Holland Inc,New York,596~608
Keilis-Borok V I and Kossobokov V G.1990.Premonitory activation of seismic flow:Algorithm M8[J].Phys Earth Planet Interi,61,73~83
Keilis-Borok V I and Shebalin P.2003.Short-term advance prediction of the San Simeon earthquake,California,December 22,2003,magnitude 6.5[R].(personal communication)
Kelleher A,Sykes L R and Oliver J.1973.Possible criteria for predicting earthquake locations and their application to major plate boundaries of the Pacific and the Caribbean[J].J Geophys Res,78,2 547~2 585
Kisslinger C.1989.Potents and predictions[J].Nature,339,337~338
Kittl P,Diaz G and Martinez V.1993.Principles and the uncertainty principles of the probabilistic strength of materials and their applications to seismology[J].ASME Appl Mech Rev,46,S327~S333
Knopoff L.1996a.Earthquake prediction:The scientific challenge.In:Knopoff L,Aki K,Allen C R,Rice J R and Sykes L R.(eds.),Earthquake Prediction:The Scientific Challenge,Colloquium Proceedings[J].Proc Nat Acad Sci USA,93, 3 719~3 720
Knopoff L.1996b.A selective phenomenology of the seismicity of Southern California.In:Knopoff L,Aki K,Allen C R, Rice J R and Sykes L R.(eds.),Earthquake Prediction:The Scientific Challenge,Colloquium Proceedlngs[J].Proc Nat Acad Sci,USA,93,3 756~3 763
Knopoff L.1996c.The organization of seismicity on fault networks.In:Knopoff L,Aki K,Allen C R,Rice J R and Sykes L R.(eds),Earthquake Prediction:The Scientific Challenge,Colloquium Proceedings[J].Proc Nat Acad Sci,USA,93, 3 830~3 837
Knopoff L.1999.Earthquake prediction is difficult but not impossible[J].Nature,Debates,March 11,1999,6pp
Knopoff L,Aki K,Allen C R,Rice J R and Sykes L R(eds).1996.Earthquake Prediction:The Scientific Challenge,Collo- quium Proceedings[J].Proc Nat Acad Sci,USA,93,3 719~3 837
Kossobokov V G,Romashkova L L,Keilis-Borok V I and Healy J H.1999.Testing earthquake prediction algorithms:Statis- tically significant advance prediction of the largest earthquakes in the circum-Pacific,1992~1997[J].Phys Earth Planet Interi,111,187~196
Lindh A G.1983.Preliminary Assessment of Long-Term Probabilities for Large Earthquakes along Selected Fault Segments of the San Andreas Fault System in California[M].U.S.Geol.Surv.Open-File Report 83-63,Menlo Park,California, 15pp
Lindh A G.2003.The nature of earthquake prediction[J].Seism Res Lett,74,723~735
Lindh A G.2005.Success and failure at Parkfield[J].Seism Res Lett,76,3~6
Matsomura S.1997.Focal zone of a future Tokai earthquake inferred from the seismicity pattern around the plate interface [J].Tectonophysics,273,271~291
Matso’ura R S.1986.Precursory quiescence and recovery of aftershock activity before some large aftershocks[J].Bull Earthq Res Inst,Univ.Tokyo,61,1~65
McCann W R,Nishenko S P,Sykes L R and Krause J.1979.Seismic gaps and plate tectonics:Seismic potential for major boundaries[J].Pure Appl Geophys,117,1 082~1 147
Milne J.1880.Seismic science in Japan[J].Trans Seism Soc Japan,1,3~33
Mjachkin V,Brace W,Soholev G and Dieterich J.1975,Two models of earthquake forerunners[J].Pure Appl Geophys, 113,169~181
Mngi K.1970.Recent horizontal deformation of the Earth′s crust and tectonic activity in Japan(1)[J].Bull Earthq Rea Inst, Univ.Tokyo,48,413~430
Mngi K.1981.Earthquake prediction program in Japan.In:Simpson D W and Richards P.(eds.),Earthquake Prediction; An International Review,Maurice Ewing Monograph Series 4[J].Amer.Geophys.Union,Washington D C,635~666
Mogi K.1985.Earthquake Prediction[M].Academic Press,London,355pp
National Research Council of the National Academies.1976.Predicting Earthquakes:A Scientific and Technical Evaluation- With Implication for Society[M].National Academy Press,Washington D C,62pp
National Research Council of the National Academies,2003.Living on an Active Earth[M].The National Academies Press, Washington D C,418pp
Nishenko S P.1989.Earthquakes,hazards and predictions.In:James D E(ed),The Encyclopedia of Solid-Earth Geophysics [M].Van Nostrand Reinhold,New York,260~268
Nishenko S P.1991.Circum-Pacific seismic potential:1989~1999[J].Pure Appl Geophys,135,169~259
Ohtake M,Matumoto T and Latham G.1977.Seismicity gap near Oaxaca,southern Mexico,as a probable precursor to a large earthquake[J].Pure Appl Geophys,113,375~385
Ohtake M,Matumoto T and Latham G.1981.Evaluation of the forecast of the 1978 Oaxaca,southern Mexico earthquake based on a precursory seismic quiescence.In:Simpson,D.and Richards,P.(eds),Earthquake Prediction-An Interna- tional Review,Maurice Ewing Series 4[M].Amer Geophys Union,Washington D C,53~62
Omori F.1907.Preliminary note of the Formosa earthquake of March 17,1906[J].Bull Imp Earthq Invest Comm,1(2): 53~69
Otsuka M.1972a.A chain-reaction-type source model as a tool to interpret the magnitude-frequency relation of earthquakes [J].J PhysEarth,20,35~45
Otsuka M.1972b.A simulation of earthquake recurrence[J].Phys Earth Planet Interi,6,311~315
Press F.1975.Earthquake prediction[M].Scientific American,232(5):134~137
Press F.1976.Heicheng and Los Angeles:A tale of two cities[J].Eos,Trans Amer Geophys Union,57,435~436
Press F and Brace W F.1966.Earthquake prediction[J].Science,152,1 575~1 584
Press F,Benioff H,Frosch R A,Grigg D T,Handin J,Hanson R E,Hess H H,Housner G W,Munk W H,Orowsn E, Pskiser Jr L C,Sutton O and Tocher D.1965.Earthquake Prediction:A Proposal for A Ten Year Program of Research [C].White House Office of Science and Technology,Washington D C,134 pp
Reid H F.1910.The California Earthquake of April 18,1906[J].Publication 87,2,Carnegie Institution of Washington, 192pp.reprinted 1969
Rice J R.1979.Theory of precursory processes in the inception of earthquake rupture[J].Gerlands Beitr Geophys,88, 91~127
Rice J R and Rudnicki J W.1979.Earthquake precursory effects due to pore fluid stabilization of a weakening fault zone[J]. J Geophys Res,84,2 177~2 193
Richter C F.1955.Elementary Seismology[M].W H Freeman,San Francisco,768pp
Roeloffs,E.and Quilty E.1997.Case 21:Water level and strain changes preceding and following the August 4,1985 Ket- tleman Hills,California[J].Pure Appl Geophys,149,21~60
Scholz C H,Sykes L R and Aggarwal Y P.1973.Earthquake predictions A physical basis[J].Science,181,803~810
Schwartz D P and Coppersmith K J.1984.Fault behavior and characteristic earthquakes:Examples from the Wasatch and San Andreas faults[J].J Geophys Res,89,5 681~5 698
Shearer C F.1985.Southern San Andress Fault Geometry and Fault Zone Deformation:Implications for Earthquake Predic- tion(National Earthquake Prediction Council Meeting,March,1985)[C].U S Geol Surv.Open-file Rep.85-507,Re- ston,Virginia,173~174
Shimazaki K and Nakata T.1980.Time-predictable recurrence model for large earthquakes[J].Geophys Res Lett,7, 279~282
Simpson R W,Schulz S S,Dietz L D and Burford R O.1988.The response of creeping parts of the San Andrcas fault to earthquakes on nearby faults:Two examples[J].Pure Appl Geophys,126,665~685
Sornette D and Knopoff L.1997.The paradox of the expected time until the next earthquake[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,87, 789~798
Stevenson D J.2003.Mission to Earth′s core—a modest proposal[J].Nature,423,423~424
Sykes L R.1971.Aftershock zones of great earthquakes,seismicity gaps and prediction[J].J Geophys Res,76,8 021~8 041
Sykes L R.1978.Intraplate seismicity reactivation of preexisting zones of weakness,alkaline magmatism,and other tecton- ism postdating continental fragmentation[J].Rev Geophys Space Phys,16,621~688
Sykes L R and Nishenko S P.1984.Probabilities of occurrence of large plate rupturing earthquakes for the San Andreas,San Jacinto,and Imperial faults,California[J].J Geophys Res,89,5 905~5 927
Tsuboi C,Wadati K and Hagiwara T.1962.Prediction of earthquakes—Progress to date and plans for future development [R].Rep.Earthquake Prediction Res.Group Japan.Earthq Res Inst,Univ.Tokyo,Tokyo,21pp
Turcotte D L.1991.Earthquake prediction[J].Ann Rev Earth Planet Sci,19,263~281
Utsu T.1977.Possibility of a great earthquake in the Tokai district,Japan[J].J Phys Earth,25,S219~S230
Utsu T.2002.A list of deadly earthquakes in the world:1500—2000.In:Lee W H K,Kanamori H,Jennings P and Kisslinger C.(eds),International Handbook of Earthquake and Engineering Seismology[M].Pt A,Academic Press,San Diego,691~717
Wakita H,Nakamura Y and Sano Y.1988.Short-term and intermediate-term geochemical precursors[J].Pure Appl Geophys,126,267~278
Wakita H,Nakamura Y and Sano Y.1991.Short-term and intermediate-term geochemical precursors.In:Wyss,M.(ed), Evaluation of Proposed Earthquake Precursors[M].Amer Geophys Union,Washington D C,15~20
Wallace R E,Davis J F and McNally K C.1984.Terms for expressing earthquake potential,prediction,and probability[J]. Bull Seism SOc Amer,74,1 819~1 825
Wesnousky S.1994.The Gutenberg-Richter or characteristic earthquake distribution:Which is it?[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer, 84,1 940~1 959
Wesnousky S,Scholz C and Shimazaki K.1983.Earthquake frequency distribution and the mechanics of faulting[J].J Geophys Res,88,9 331~9 340
Whitcomb J H,Garmany J D and Anderson D L.1973.Earthquake prediction:Variation of seismic velocities before the San [Fernando]earthquake[J].Science,180,632~635
Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities.1988.Probabilities of Large Earthquakes Occurring in California on the San Andreas Fault[R].U S Geological Survey Open-File Report 88-398,Reston,Virginia,62pp
Wyss M.(ed.).1991.Evaluation of Proposed Earthquake Precursors[R].Amer Geophys Union,Washington D C,94pp
Wyss M.1997.Second round of earthquake of proposed earthquake precursors[J].Pure Appl Geophys,149,3~16
Wyss M and Booth D C.1997.The IASPEI procedure for the evaluation of earthquake precursors[J].Geophys J Int,131, 423~424
#12
#12
#12
#12
#12
石桥克彦[日].1994.大地动乱时代-地震学者警告[M].岩波新书,235
陈运泰.1993.地震预测研究概况[J].地震学刊,(1),17~23
陈运泰.2007.地震预测现状与前景.见:中国科学院(主编):2007科学发展报告[M].北京:科学出版社,173~182
陈章立,刘蒲雄,黄德瑜,郑大林,薛峰,王志东.1981.大震前区域地震活动性特征.见:丁国瑜,马宗晋(主编):国际地震预报讨论会论文选[M].北京:地震出版社,97~205
傅承义.1963.有关地震预告的几个问题[J].科学通报,(3).30~36
傅承义,刘恢先.1956.天然地震的灾害及其防御[J].科学长远规划,第33项
陆远忠.陈章立.王碧泉,刘蒲雄,刘文龙,戴维乐.1985.地震预报的地震学方法[M].北京:地震出版社,268
梅世蓉,冯德益,张国民,高旭,张肇诚等.1993.中国地震预报概论[M].北京:地震出版社,498
翁文灏.1929.地震[M].上海:商务印书馆,25
吴开统,岳明生,武宦英,曹新玲.陈海通,黄伟琼,田抗援,卢寿德.1976.海城地震序列的特征[J].地球物理学报,(2), 95~109
叶永田,郑世楠.1998.活动断层地球物理探勘计划1987年度报告——由历史地震资料探讨1906年梅山地震断层的分布[R].经济部中央地质调查所,IES-R-661,255
张肇诚(主编).1988.中国震例(1966~1975)[M].北京:地震出版社,222
张肇诚(主编).1990.中国震例(1976~1980)[M].北京:地震出版社,421
郑世楠,叶永田,游明圣,徐明同.1998.1906年梅山地震断层的回顾与探讨[R].中国地质学会87年学术研讨会, 225~226