华北地区的背景地震活动及区域未来强震危险性
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摘要
华北地区的历史强震活动非常频繁。然而,自1998年张北MS6.2地震以来,该地区已经经历了10多年的地震平静期,中强震平静现象比较突出。本文利用1970年至2009年的小震资料,对华北地区的背景地震活动进行分析,给出了地震活动性参数b值、最大震级以及强震复发间隔和强震年平均发生概率的空间分布。b值空间分布表明,山西构造带的运城地区,郯庐断裂带的宿迁地区以及太行山块体内部的石家庄地区的b值较低。地震活动性参数的综合空间图像表明华北地区的地震活动主要受区域深部动力因素所控制。
Historic earthquake activity in the north China region has been intense.However,no moderate earthquake has occurred in the last more than ten years in the region since the 1998 MS6.2 Zhangbei earthquake.The quietness of moderate to strong earthquake is quite prominent in the region.In this paper,we use the small earthquake record between 1970 and 2009 to study the background seismic activity in the north China region.We presented the spatial distributions of seismic parameters including b-value,maximum magnitude and annual probability of occurrence of an earthquake equal to or larger than M6.0.Our results show that the regions with low b-value include the Yunchen region in the Shanxi rift,the Shuqian region located in the Tanlu Fault Zone and the Shijiazhuang region in the Taihangshan block.The analysis by synthesis shows that seismicity in the north China region is mainly affected by the regional dynamic factors in depth.
Historic earthquake activity in the north China region has been intense.However,no moderate earthquake has occurred in the last more than ten years in the region since the 1998 MS6.2 Zhangbei earthquake.The quietness of moderate to strong earthquake is quite prominent in the region.In this paper,we use the small earthquake record between 1970 and 2009 to study the background seismic activity in the north China region.We presented the spatial distributions of seismic parameters including b-value,maximum magnitude and annual probability of occurrence of an earthquake equal to or larger than M6.0.Our results show that the regions with low b-value include the Yunchen region in the Shanxi rift,the Shuqian region located in the Tanlu Fault Zone and the Shijiazhuang region in the Taihangshan block.The analysis by synthesis shows that seismicity in the north China region is mainly affected by the regional dynamic factors in depth.
引文
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[13]Amitrano D.Brittle-ductile transition and associated seismicity:Experimental and numerical studiesand relationship with the b value[J].Journal of Geophysical Research-Solid Earth,2003,108(B1,2044),doi:10.1029/2001JB00680.
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[18]韩竹军,徐杰,冉勇康,等.华北地区活动地块与强震活动[J].中国科学D辑,2003,33(增刊):108-118.
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[24]刘静,汪良谋.运用活断层资料评估汾渭地震带中长期强震危险性[J].地震学报,1996,18(4):427-436.
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[27]Xu X,Ma X,Deng Q.Neotectonic activity along the Shanxi rift system,China[J].Tectonophys-ics,1993,219(4):305-325.
[28]Chen L,Zheng T,Xu W.A thinned lithospheric image of the Tanlu Fault Zone,eastern China:Constructed from wave equation based receiver function migration[J].Journal of Geophysical Re-search-Solid Earth,2006,111(B09312),doi:10.1029/2005JB003974.
[29]Wang Y.Heat flow pattern and lateral variations of lithosphere strength in China mainland:con-straintes on active deformation[J].Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors,2001,126:121-146.
[30]Chen L,Cheng C,Wei Z.Seismic evidence for significant lateral variations in lithospheric thicknessbeneath the central and western North China Craton[J].Earth and Planetary Science Letters,2009,286:171-183,doi:10.1016/j.epsl.2009.06.022.
[31]Chen L.Lithospheric structure variations between the eastern and central North China Craton from Sand P-receiver function migration[J].Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors,2009,173:216-227,doi:10.1016/j.pepi.2008.11.011.
[32]臧绍先,李昶,宁杰远,等.华北岩石圈三维流变结构的一种初步模型[J].中国科学D辑,2002,32(7):588-597.
[33]Huang J,Zhao D.High-resolution mantle tomography of China and surrounding regions[J].Journalof Geophysical Research-Solid Earth,2006,111(B09305),doi:10.1029/2005JB004066.
[34]臧绍先,刘永刚,宁杰远.华北地区岩石圈热结构的研究[J].地球物理学报,2002,45(1):56-66.
[35]宁杰远,臧绍先,王曙光,等.底部水平拖曳作用下岩石圈的层间耦合[J].中国科学D辑,2003,33(增刊):33-44.
[36]何正勤,叶太兰,丁志峰.华北东北部的面波相速度层析成像研究[J].地球物理学报,2009,52(5):1 233-1 242,doi:10.3969/j.issn.0001-5733.2009.05.012.
[37]黄玮琼,李文香.b值统计的物理背景[J].地震学报,1997,19(1):86-92.
[38]刘杰,陈颙,杨一冲,等.利用近代微震资料研究地震危险性[J].中国地震,1997,13(1):10-17.
[39]Stein S,Liu M.Long aftershock sequences within continents and implications for earthquake hazardassessment[J].Nature,2009,462(5),doi:10.1038/nature08502.
[2]Schorlemmer D,Wiemer S.Microseismicity data forecast rupture area[J].Nature,2005,434:1 086.
[3]朱艾斓,徐锡伟,甘卫军,等.鲜水河—安宁河—则木河断裂带上可能存在的凹凸体:来自背景地震活动性的证据[J].地学前缘,2009,16(1):218-225.
[4]Huang Q.Seismicity changes prior to theMS8.0 Wenchuan earthquake in Sichuan,China[J].Geo-physical Research Letters,2008,35(L23308),doi:10.1029/2008GL036270.
[5]国家地震局震害防御司.中国历史强震目录[M].北京:地震出版社,1995.
[6]张国民,傅征祥.华北强震的时间及其物理解释[J].地球物理学报,1985,28(6):569-578.
[7]李乐,陈棋福,陈颙.首都圈地震活动构造成因的小震精定位分析[J].地球物理学进展,2007,22(1):24-34.
[8]朱艾斓,徐锡伟,胡平,等.首都圈地区b值随震源深度的变化:对地震成核的意义[J].科学通报,2005,50(8):788-792.
[9]易桂喜,闻学泽,徐锡伟.山西断陷带太原—临汾部分的强地震平均复发间隔与未来危险段落研究[J].地震学报,2004,26(4):387-395.
[10]易桂喜,闻学泽.多地震活动性参数在断裂带现今活动习性与地震危险性评价中的应用与问题[J].地震地质,2007,29(2):254-271.
[11]Scholz C H.The frequency-magnitude relation of microfracturing in rock and its relation to earth-quakes[J].Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,1968,58(1):399-415.
[12]Schorlemmer D,Wiemer S,Wyss M.Variations in earthquake-size distribution across differentstress regimes[J].Nature,2005,437:539-542,doi:10.1038/nature04094.
[13]Amitrano D.Brittle-ductile transition and associated seismicity:Experimental and numerical studiesand relationship with the b value[J].Journal of Geophysical Research-Solid Earth,2003,108(B1,2044),doi:10.1029/2001JB00680.
[14]Wiemer S,Schorlemmer D.ALM:An Asperity-based Likelihood Model for California[J].Seismo-logical Research Letters,2007,78(1):134-140.
[15]Aki K.Maximum likelihood estimate ofbin the formula logN=a-bMand its confidence limits[J].Bulletin of the Earthquake Research Institute,1965,43:237-239.
[16]Shi Y,Bolt B A.The standard error of the magnitude-frequency b value[J].Bulletin of the Seismo-logical Society of America,1982,72(5):1 677-1 687.
[17]张培震,邓起东,张国民,等.中国大陆的强震活动与活动地块[J].中国科学D辑,2003,33(增刊):12-20.
[18]韩竹军,徐杰,冉勇康,等.华北地区活动地块与强震活动[J].中国科学D辑,2003,33(增刊):108-118.
[19]Reasenberg P.Second-order moment of central california seismicity[J].Journal of Geophysical Re-search,1985,90(B7):5 479-5 495.
[20]Wiemer S,Wyss M.Minimum magnitude of completeness in earthquake catalogs:Examples fromAlaska,the western US and Japan[J].Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,2000,90(4):859-869.
[21]蒋长胜,吴忠良,李宇彤.首都圈地区"重复地震"及其在区域地震台网定位精度评价中的应用[J].地球物理学报,2008,51(3):817-827.
[22]Christophersen A,Smith E G C.Foreshock rates from aftershock abundance[J].Bulletin of theSeismological Society of America,2010,98(5):2 133-2 148,doi:10.1785/0120060143.
[23]徐锡伟,吴卫民,张先康.首都圈地区地壳最新构造变动与地震[M].北京:科学出版社,2002.
[24]刘静,汪良谋.运用活断层资料评估汾渭地震带中长期强震危险性[J].地震学报,1996,18(4):427-436.
[25]Working Group On California Earthquake Probabilityes.Earthquake probabilities in the San Francis-co Bay region[J].2002—2031.Open-File Report 03-214,2003.
[26]Kusky T M,Windley V F,Zhai M G.Tectonic evolution of the North China Block:from orogen tocraton to orogen[J].Geological Society Special Publications,2007,280:1-34,doi:10.1144/SP280.1.
[27]Xu X,Ma X,Deng Q.Neotectonic activity along the Shanxi rift system,China[J].Tectonophys-ics,1993,219(4):305-325.
[28]Chen L,Zheng T,Xu W.A thinned lithospheric image of the Tanlu Fault Zone,eastern China:Constructed from wave equation based receiver function migration[J].Journal of Geophysical Re-search-Solid Earth,2006,111(B09312),doi:10.1029/2005JB003974.
[29]Wang Y.Heat flow pattern and lateral variations of lithosphere strength in China mainland:con-straintes on active deformation[J].Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors,2001,126:121-146.
[30]Chen L,Cheng C,Wei Z.Seismic evidence for significant lateral variations in lithospheric thicknessbeneath the central and western North China Craton[J].Earth and Planetary Science Letters,2009,286:171-183,doi:10.1016/j.epsl.2009.06.022.
[31]Chen L.Lithospheric structure variations between the eastern and central North China Craton from Sand P-receiver function migration[J].Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors,2009,173:216-227,doi:10.1016/j.pepi.2008.11.011.
[32]臧绍先,李昶,宁杰远,等.华北岩石圈三维流变结构的一种初步模型[J].中国科学D辑,2002,32(7):588-597.
[33]Huang J,Zhao D.High-resolution mantle tomography of China and surrounding regions[J].Journalof Geophysical Research-Solid Earth,2006,111(B09305),doi:10.1029/2005JB004066.
[34]臧绍先,刘永刚,宁杰远.华北地区岩石圈热结构的研究[J].地球物理学报,2002,45(1):56-66.
[35]宁杰远,臧绍先,王曙光,等.底部水平拖曳作用下岩石圈的层间耦合[J].中国科学D辑,2003,33(增刊):33-44.
[36]何正勤,叶太兰,丁志峰.华北东北部的面波相速度层析成像研究[J].地球物理学报,2009,52(5):1 233-1 242,doi:10.3969/j.issn.0001-5733.2009.05.012.
[37]黄玮琼,李文香.b值统计的物理背景[J].地震学报,1997,19(1):86-92.
[38]刘杰,陈颙,杨一冲,等.利用近代微震资料研究地震危险性[J].中国地震,1997,13(1):10-17.
[39]Stein S,Liu M.Long aftershock sequences within continents and implications for earthquake hazardassessment[J].Nature,2009,462(5),doi:10.1038/nature08502.
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