2007年宁洱6.4级地震前地震学异常的动态演化
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摘要
2007年宁洱6.4级地震前,在中国大陆和云南省6级强震平静及滇西南地区5、6级地震出现丛集现象的背景下,动态追踪了滇西南地区各项地震学参数异常的中、短临演化过程。结果表明,2005、2006年滇西南地区近同步出现中小地震活跃、调制小震频发、震源深度加深、b值由高到低等中短期异常,而2007年云南省内大于等于25天的3级地震平静异常和滇西南3级震群的密集,则预示着强震的逼近,尤其是3级地震时空密集,是宁洱6.4级地震的显著短临标志。
Before the 2007 Ning'er MS6.4 earthquake,M≥6 earthquakes kept quiet during a long time in China Mainland and Yunnan Province,and M5.0-6.0 earthquakes occurred clusteringly in Southwest Yunnan. Under this background,we dynamically traced the evolution process of seismological anomalies during the Ning'er earthquake preparation. In 2005-2006,many medium-,short-term anomalies,such as active medium-small shocks,frequent modulating small shocks,deepening focal depth and b-values varying from high to low,appeared almost synchronously in Southwest Yunnan. In 2007,appeared the M3.0 earthquake quiescence beyond 25 days in Yunnan and dense M3.0 earthquake swarms in Southwest Yunnan,which predicts that a strong earthquake is impending. The denseness of M3.0 earthquakes in time and space can be seen as an obvious impending-earthquake mark of the Ning'er earthquake.
Before the 2007 Ning'er MS6.4 earthquake,M≥6 earthquakes kept quiet during a long time in China Mainland and Yunnan Province,and M5.0-6.0 earthquakes occurred clusteringly in Southwest Yunnan. Under this background,we dynamically traced the evolution process of seismological anomalies during the Ning'er earthquake preparation. In 2005-2006,many medium-,short-term anomalies,such as active medium-small shocks,frequent modulating small shocks,deepening focal depth and b-values varying from high to low,appeared almost synchronously in Southwest Yunnan. In 2007,appeared the M3.0 earthquake quiescence beyond 25 days in Yunnan and dense M3.0 earthquake swarms in Southwest Yunnan,which predicts that a strong earthquake is impending. The denseness of M3.0 earthquakes in time and space can be seen as an obvious impending-earthquake mark of the Ning'er earthquake.
引文
蔡静观,张喜玲.1999.云南地区波速比预报效能的动态分析[J].地震,19(4):359-364.
蔡静观.1997.丽江大震前长—中—短—临地震学异常的演化过程[J].地震研究,20(1):13-20.
胡小幸,林邦慧.1989.邢台地震空间分布随时间变化的立体图像与地震发生过程[J].地震学报,11(1):1-11.
李永莉,蔡静观.2001.云南近期姚安、澄江及丘北地震的孕育[J].地震研究,24(3):213-219.
梅世蓉,冯德益,张国民,等.1993,中国地震预报概论[M].北京:地震出版社,44-99.
梅世蓉.1996.地震前兆场物理模式与前兆时空分布机制研究(二)——强震孕育时应力应变场的演化与地震活动地震前兆的关系[J].地震学报,18(1):1-10.
秦保燕.1997.强地震地点预报方法——交汇法[J].内陆地震,11(2):103-111.
蔡静观.1997.丽江大震前长—中—短—临地震学异常的演化过程[J].地震研究,20(1):13-20.
胡小幸,林邦慧.1989.邢台地震空间分布随时间变化的立体图像与地震发生过程[J].地震学报,11(1):1-11.
李永莉,蔡静观.2001.云南近期姚安、澄江及丘北地震的孕育[J].地震研究,24(3):213-219.
梅世蓉,冯德益,张国民,等.1993,中国地震预报概论[M].北京:地震出版社,44-99.
梅世蓉.1996.地震前兆场物理模式与前兆时空分布机制研究(二)——强震孕育时应力应变场的演化与地震活动地震前兆的关系[J].地震学报,18(1):1-10.
秦保燕.1997.强地震地点预报方法——交汇法[J].内陆地震,11(2):103-111.
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