江苏及邻区地震活动自仿射分形特征及预报应用
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摘要
对江苏及邻区地震频次自仿射分形H值的变化特点作了研究,并对1970年以来发生在该地区的5级以上地震作了回溯性预测检验。研究结果显示,江苏及邻区地震频次的H值在0.59~0.99之间,地震活动具有确定和随机的双重属性,同时表明地震活动具有正继承性;对江苏及邻区的震例及其预报效能评价的研究表明,地震频次H值下降的异常现象与江苏及邻区5级以上地震具有较好的对应关系,回溯性预测检验得到的R值为0.365。因而地震频次H值在该地区的地震预报中有较好的应用前景,值得用来探求未来中强地震可能发生的危险时段。
In this paper,the characteristic of self-affine fractal H-value of earthquake frequency in Jiangsu Province and adjacent areas is studied,and the retrospective prediction test to the earthquakes(M≥5.0) in this region since 1970 is made.It is indicated that the H-value is between 0.59 and 0.99,which illustrates that the earthquake activity has both determinacy and randomicity as well as persistence.It is also indicated that the abnormal variation of lowering H-value is preferably corresponded to the earthquakes(M≥5.0) in the predictive efficiency evaluation of the earthquake examples in this area,and that the R-value derived from retrospective prediction test to the earthquakes(M≥5.0) in this region since 1970 is 0.365,therefore the H-value can be used for predicting earthquake in Jiangsu Province and adjacent area.It is worthy using H-value to explore the dangerous period of time for the possible earthquakes to occur.
In this paper,the characteristic of self-affine fractal H-value of earthquake frequency in Jiangsu Province and adjacent areas is studied,and the retrospective prediction test to the earthquakes(M≥5.0) in this region since 1970 is made.It is indicated that the H-value is between 0.59 and 0.99,which illustrates that the earthquake activity has both determinacy and randomicity as well as persistence.It is also indicated that the abnormal variation of lowering H-value is preferably corresponded to the earthquakes(M≥5.0) in the predictive efficiency evaluation of the earthquake examples in this area,and that the R-value derived from retrospective prediction test to the earthquakes(M≥5.0) in this region since 1970 is 0.365,therefore the H-value can be used for predicting earthquake in Jiangsu Province and adjacent area.It is worthy using H-value to explore the dangerous period of time for the possible earthquakes to occur.
引文
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[2]孟宪国.R/S分析和地球化学数据的分形处理[J].地球科学,1991,16(30):281-286M eng X G.R/S ana lys is and the fracta l process ing forgeochem ica l data[J].E arth Sc ience-Journa l of Ch inaU n ivers ity of G eosc iences,1991,16(30):281-286
[3]朱令人.地震分形[M].北京:地震出版社,2000.42Zhu L R.F racta l of E arthquakes[M].B e ijng:E arth-quake P ress,2004.42
[4]秦卫平.一维地震预报评分问题[J].地震学报,1991,17(3):389-392Q in W P.O n the prob lem of grad ing for one-d im en-s iona l se ism o log ic pred iction[J].A cta Se ism o log icaS in ica,1991,17(3):389-392
[5]许绍燮.地震预报能力评分[A].许绍燮,陆远忠,等.地震预报方法实用化研究文集.地震学专辑[C].北京:学术书刊出版社,1989.586-590X u S X.Score on the ab ility of pred iction of earth-quake[A].X u S X,Lu Y Z,et a l.Spec ia l Co llectionsof Se ism o logy,Co llected W orks abou t U tilization ofM ethod of P red iction of E arthquake in P ractice[C].B e ijing:A cadem ic Books and Period ica ls P ress,1989.586-590
[6]F eder,J.F racta ls[M].N ew Y ork:P lenum P ress,1988.283
[7]Hurst H E,B lack R P.S im a ike Y M.Long-term S tor-age:an Experim en ta l S tudy[M].London:Constab le,1965.1-155
[8]M ande lbrot,B.B,W a llis,J.B.Som e long-run proper-ties of geophys ica l records[J].W ater R esour,1969,(5):321-340
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