形变台点异常事件与强震活动关系的研究
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摘要
收集了我国大部分跨断层流动测量和跨断层形变台站资料,统计了阶跃、突跳、趋势转折和年变规律改变等异常变化,并与相应区域内MS≥6.0以上地震的时空分布进行了对比分析,结果认为:(1)突出的台点形变异常和强震活动在上一个强震活动高潮期均存在由西南向华北往复迁移的特征;(2)突出的台点形变异常峰值期与强震活动高潮期存在一定的对应关系;(3)1987年以来形变异常和强震活动由西南向华北迁移的特征不明显,但地震活动在南北带上往复迁移的特征仍然存在;(4)未来一段时间内,华北发生MS6.0以上强震的可能性不大,而南北带的北部不能排除。
Most of the crass-fault deformation data measured at fixed stations and mobile sites in China are collected, the obvious anomaly variations of it such as stepping, pulse, tendency change and anniversary rule change are searched, and the comparison analysis between the anomalies and earthquakes with M_S≥6.0 in the same area is made to find their distribution regulation both in time and space. The results show:(1)Both of the anomalies and strong earthquakes migrate to and fro from Southwest to North China in the last active cycle of strong seismicity.(2)There is a corresponding relation between the peak of abnormal deformation at stations and the active period of strong earthquakes.(3)Since 1987, both the deformation anomalies and activities of strong earthquake not migrate obviously from Southwest to North China yet, but the migrate feature is also existent in North-South seismic belt of China.(4)In the next period, the probability of occurring earthquake with M_S≥(6.0) in North China is low, but we are not sure about it for North-South seismic belt of China.
Most of the crass-fault deformation data measured at fixed stations and mobile sites in China are collected, the obvious anomaly variations of it such as stepping, pulse, tendency change and anniversary rule change are searched, and the comparison analysis between the anomalies and earthquakes with M_S≥6.0 in the same area is made to find their distribution regulation both in time and space. The results show:(1)Both of the anomalies and strong earthquakes migrate to and fro from Southwest to North China in the last active cycle of strong seismicity.(2)There is a corresponding relation between the peak of abnormal deformation at stations and the active period of strong earthquakes.(3)Since 1987, both the deformation anomalies and activities of strong earthquake not migrate obviously from Southwest to North China yet, but the migrate feature is also existent in North-South seismic belt of China.(4)In the next period, the probability of occurring earthquake with M_S≥(6.0) in North China is low, but we are not sure about it for North-South seismic belt of China.
引文
[1] 薄万举,谢觉民,刘世荣.短水准高频形变信息与小震活动关系的研究[J].地壳形变与地震,1993,13(增2):72-79.
[2] 薄万举.用流动点资料进行地震中短期预报的方法和尝试[J].地壳形变与地震,1988,8(4):359-369.
[3] 薄万举.用非线性动力学的观点分析形变异常与干扰初探[J].地壳形变与地震,1992,12(4):44-48.
[4] 薄万举.系统工程学在大地形变测量预报地震中的应用[J].地震,1991,11(3):22-30.
[5] WanjuBo,YanxingLi,GuohuaYanget.al..CrustaldeformationstateshownbyfaultmeasurementandGPS[J].Journalofseismology,2000,4(3):259-266.
[6] 薄万举,郭良迁,董桂英,等.坝体决口孕震模式[J].大地测量与地球动力学,2001,21(4):103-107.
[7] 薄万举,杨国华,郭良迁,等.地壳形变与地震预测研究[M].北京:地震出版社,2001.
[2] 薄万举.用流动点资料进行地震中短期预报的方法和尝试[J].地壳形变与地震,1988,8(4):359-369.
[3] 薄万举.用非线性动力学的观点分析形变异常与干扰初探[J].地壳形变与地震,1992,12(4):44-48.
[4] 薄万举.系统工程学在大地形变测量预报地震中的应用[J].地震,1991,11(3):22-30.
[5] WanjuBo,YanxingLi,GuohuaYanget.al..CrustaldeformationstateshownbyfaultmeasurementandGPS[J].Journalofseismology,2000,4(3):259-266.
[6] 薄万举,郭良迁,董桂英,等.坝体决口孕震模式[J].大地测量与地球动力学,2001,21(4):103-107.
[7] 薄万举,杨国华,郭良迁,等.地壳形变与地震预测研究[M].北京:地震出版社,2001.
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