地下流体地震前兆多层次跟踪法在华南及沿海地区的应用

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英文篇名：The application of the HTM method of subsurface fluid in the South China and coastal areas 中文刊名：华南地震 英文刊名：SOUTH CHINA JOURNAL OF SEISMOLOGY 作者：叶秀薇 英文作者：Ye Xiuwei (Seismological Bureau of Guangdong Province ; Guangzhou 510070) 中文关键词：地震预报 ; 地震前兆 ; 发震时刻 ; 地下流体 ; 多层次跟踪法 英文关键词：Earthquake prediction ; Seismic precursor ; Origin time ; Subsurface fluid ; The HTM method 出版日期：1999-06-30 机构：广东省地震局!广州510070 年：1999 期：02 出版单位：华南地震

摘要

利用多层次跟踪法， 对８０ 年代以来华南及沿海地区发生的９ 次大于 Ｍ Ｓ５０ 级和２ 次陆区接近 Ｍ Ｓ５０ 级地震的发震时间进行了系统验证。在１１ 个震例中预测时段正确的有： 中期１０ 个、短期５ 个和短临２ 个， 表明该方法可应用于华南及其沿海地区未来中强地震发震时间的预报
The occurred time of the earthquakes have been systematic studied by using the HTM method, and these earthquakes consist of 9 earthquakes with M >5 0 and 2 earthquakes with 4 0< M <5 0 which occurred in the South China and coastal areas since 1980. The result shows that the judgment for 10 of medium-term, 5 of short-term and 2 of impending-term were correct. It is indicated that the HTM method should be applied to predict the origin time of the moderate earthquake which will occur in the South China areas in the future.

引文

1 　冯绚敏, 林伟, 叶秀薇, 等地下流体远场地震效应讨论地震, 1995 , (1) : 59 ～63
    2 　李献智, 候建盛应用综合前兆异常月频次判定地震进入中短期的研究地震, 1998 , 18 (4) : 337 ～347
    3 　叶秀薇台湾海峡73 级地震前地下流体前兆异常华南地震, 1998 , 18 (3) : 35 ～40