摘要
利用多层次跟踪法, 对80 年代以来华南及沿海地区发生的9 次大于 M S50 级和2 次陆区接近 M S50 级地震的发震时间进行了系统验证。在11 个震例中预测时段正确的有: 中期10 个、短期5 个和短临2 个, 表明该方法可应用于华南及其沿海地区未来中强地震发震时间的预报
The occurred time of the earthquakes have been systematic studied by using the HTM method, and these earthquakes consist of 9 earthquakes with M >5 0 and 2 earthquakes with 4 0< M <5 0 which occurred in the South China and coastal areas since 1980. The result shows that the judgment for 10 of medium-term, 5 of short-term and 2 of impending-term were correct. It is indicated that the HTM method should be applied to predict the origin time of the moderate earthquake which will occur in the South China areas in the future.
引文
1 冯绚敏, 林伟, 叶秀薇, 等地下流体远场地震效应讨论地震, 1995 , (1) : 59 ~63
2 李献智, 候建盛应用综合前兆异常月频次判定地震进入中短期的研究地震, 1998 , 18 (4) : 337 ~347
3 叶秀薇台湾海峡73 级地震前地下流体前兆异常华南地震, 1998 , 18 (3) : 35 ~40