地震预报唯象模型的适用性研究
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摘要
滑动可预报模型、时间可预报模型和双限随机应力水平模型是三种相关的地震预报唯象模型．对于一个指定地区，用哪种模型更合理呢？为解决这个问题，本文提出了两种识别地震预报模式适用程度的数据分析方法，利用这些方法可以合理地鉴别出所采用的地震预报唯象模型是否适用于指定地区的地震预报分析．作为例子，本文对意大利弗留利地区和鲜水河断裂带康定段、乾宁段的地震预报模式进行了研究．结果表明，弗留利地区孕震模式符合滑动可预报模型的适用度是0．73至0．92，符合时间可预报模型的适用度是0．08至0．48，符合双限随机应力水平模型的适用度是0.04至0．14．显然，滑动可预报模型应是意大利弗留利地区地震预报模式的最佳选择，这与文献[3]的分析结果是一致的．用同样方法研究原定段和乾宁段则得出相反的结论，康定段和乾宁段符合时间可预报模型的适用度分别是0．80和0，97，而符合滑动可预报模型和双限随机应力水平模型的适用度都很低．说明时间可预报模型应是康定段和乾宁段地震预报模式的最佳选择．本文所提方法直观、简捷，可操作性强，因而，可以用于指导任一指定地区的地震预报的研究，具有广泛的应用前景．
The slip predictable model, thc time prcdictable model, and the double stochastic stress limit model, are three kinds of eqrthquake prediction models. Then, to a given region, which one is the most reasonable? To solvc the problem, we propose a kind or dataidentification analysis method in this paper. As an example, this method is used to analyze the characteristics of earthquakcs in Friuh and Xian Shui River Fault Zone. It is shown that, to Friuli region, the coincidence degree of slip predictable model is from 0.73 to 0.92, and the coincidence degree of time predictable model is from 0.08 to 0.48, and the coincidence degree of the double stochastic stress limit model is from 0.04 to 0.14. Obviously, the most adaptable model, to Friuli region, is the slip predictable model. To Ganning fault section and Kangding fault section, the coincidence degrees of the time predictable model are 0.97 and 0.80 respectively, while the coincidence degrees of the slip predictable model and the double stochastic stress limit model are very low, Therefore, the most adaptable model, to Ganning section and Kangding section, is the time predictable model. The identification method proposcd here is simple to understand, easy to use.Therefore, it is useful to the field of earthquake prediction.
The slip predictable model, thc time prcdictable model, and the double stochastic stress limit model, are three kinds of eqrthquake prediction models. Then, to a given region, which one is the most reasonable? To solvc the problem, we propose a kind or dataidentification analysis method in this paper. As an example, this method is used to analyze the characteristics of earthquakcs in Friuh and Xian Shui River Fault Zone. It is shown that, to Friuli region, the coincidence degree of slip predictable model is from 0.73 to 0.92, and the coincidence degree of time predictable model is from 0.08 to 0.48, and the coincidence degree of the double stochastic stress limit model is from 0.04 to 0.14. Obviously, the most adaptable model, to Friuli region, is the slip predictable model. To Ganning fault section and Kangding fault section, the coincidence degrees of the time predictable model are 0.97 and 0.80 respectively, while the coincidence degrees of the slip predictable model and the double stochastic stress limit model are very low, Therefore, the most adaptable model, to Ganning section and Kangding section, is the time predictable model. The identification method proposcd here is simple to understand, easy to use.Therefore, it is useful to the field of earthquake prediction.
引文
[1] Anagnos, T. and Kiremidjian A.S, 1984. Stochastic time—predictable model for earthquake.occurrences. Bull. Seism. Soc. Amer, 24, 6, 1010- 1024.
[2] Kiyoo Mogi, 1986,Earthquake predichon,by ACADEMIC PRESS JAPAN. INC. Printed in theunited stated, 8- 16, 1986.
[3] E.G.Guagenti, M,G.Mulus, 1986. Slip predictable model: 2 also Del Friuli, Ing. sism. 3, 32—39.
[4] E.G.Guagenti, C. Molina and G.Mulus, 1988, Seismic Risk Analysis With Predictable Models,Earthquake Engineering and Structural Dynamics, Vol.16, 343-359.
[5] M.S,Barbano, R.Kind and G.Zonno, Focal Parameters of Some Friuli Earthquakes(1976—1979)
Using Complete Theoretical Seismograms,J.geophys,58,175～182(1985).
[6] B.C.Papazachos, 1989, A time-predictable model for earthquake generation in Greece, Bull.Seism, Soc. Am, 79, 1, 77-84.
[7]王时标,白广忱,王光远,1993,断层地震危险性分析的双限随机应力水平模型,地震学报,15,4,
[8]王时标,1993,基于震源断层受力过程分析的地震危险性分析方法,博士学位论文,哈尔滨建筑大学印.
[2] Kiyoo Mogi, 1986,Earthquake predichon,by ACADEMIC PRESS JAPAN. INC. Printed in theunited stated, 8- 16, 1986.
[3] E.G.Guagenti, M,G.Mulus, 1986. Slip predictable model: 2 also Del Friuli, Ing. sism. 3, 32—39.
[4] E.G.Guagenti, C. Molina and G.Mulus, 1988, Seismic Risk Analysis With Predictable Models,Earthquake Engineering and Structural Dynamics, Vol.16, 343-359.
[5] M.S,Barbano, R.Kind and G.Zonno, Focal Parameters of Some Friuli Earthquakes(1976—1979)
Using Complete Theoretical Seismograms,J.geophys,58,175～182(1985).
[6] B.C.Papazachos, 1989, A time-predictable model for earthquake generation in Greece, Bull.Seism, Soc. Am, 79, 1, 77-84.
[7]王时标,白广忱,王光远,1993,断层地震危险性分析的双限随机应力水平模型,地震学报,15,4,
[8]王时标,1993,基于震源断层受力过程分析的地震危险性分析方法,博士学位论文,哈尔滨建筑大学印.
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