中国大陆多种前兆异常研究及强震的尝试性预测
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摘要
强震震源周围地电、水化学、水动态、地应力和地形变等５种前兆短临异常 时空演化取决于主要活动构造和强震发震机制；远场异常时空演化与主要活构造有 关，不同活构造上异常时间演化有差异性；在特定年份１ａ尺度地电阻率异常显示异 常高潮期，Ms≥５．０地震能量达到１次以上Ｍｓ７．０强震能量的年份与异常高潮期 同步或滞后１ａ，二者与地球自转加速年份基本对应。根据两方面的研究结果进行了 实际预测检验，在预测区间和预测时间段（０．５ａ或１ａ）内发生强震、中强震１０次，其 中７次地震地点基本准确，３次地震地点较为准确。
The time-space evolutions of the short-impending anomalies of the five kinds of precursors which include geoelectricity,hydrochemistry, ground water behavior, ground stress and ground de- formaticn around a strong earthquake are depended upon the active master structures and the gen- erating-earthquake mechanism.The evolutions of the far-field abnormalities of the precursors are related to the structures and the abnormalities at different structures have the diversity of evolu- tional time. In some particular years one-year scale anomaly of earth resistivity demonstrates the anomaly fastigiums which are synchronous with the years when energy of 5.0 earthquakes is up to that of a Ms =7.0 earthquake or are delayed one year. The fastigiums and the years are fairly corresponding to the years of the acceleraticn of the earth rotation. According to the research results of the two respects, 12 strong and moderate earthquakes are predicted so that 10 shocks of them occurred in the predicted area and the predicted time interval (a half year or one year time interval) .The sites of seven shocks are basically exactly predicted and those of three shocks are fairly exactly done.
The time-space evolutions of the short-impending anomalies of the five kinds of precursors which include geoelectricity,hydrochemistry, ground water behavior, ground stress and ground de- formaticn around a strong earthquake are depended upon the active master structures and the gen- erating-earthquake mechanism.The evolutions of the far-field abnormalities of the precursors are related to the structures and the abnormalities at different structures have the diversity of evolu- tional time. In some particular years one-year scale anomaly of earth resistivity demonstrates the anomaly fastigiums which are synchronous with the years when energy of 5.0 earthquakes is up to that of a Ms =7.0 earthquake or are delayed one year. The fastigiums and the years are fairly corresponding to the years of the acceleraticn of the earth rotation. According to the research results of the two respects, 12 strong and moderate earthquakes are predicted so that 10 shocks of them occurred in the predicted area and the predicted time interval (a half year or one year time interval) .The sites of seven shocks are basically exactly predicted and those of three shocks are fairly exactly done.
引文
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[2]郭增建,秦保燕。震源物理[M].北京:地震出版社,北京 1979。
[3]马宗晋,华北地壳的多(应力集中)点场与地震[J].地震地质, 1980,2(1):39-47。
[4]杜学彬,大陆中、强地震地电阻率临震突变及其时空分布讨论[J].地震, 1992,(6):51-59。
[5]杜学彬,赵和云,陈宝智,地电阻率临震突变与活断层、发震应力场[J].地震学报, 1993, 15(3):303～312。
[6]杜学彬,赵和云,陈宝智,等。景泰6.2级地震地电阻率变化特征[J].中国地震, 1992,8(3):28-35。
[7]杜学彬,阎志德,邹明武,景泰6.2级地质震源动力学过程[J].地震学报, 1994,16(3):296～303。
[8]杜学彬,刘耀炜,倪明康.强震地下水动态中短临异常空间特征研究[J].地震学报, 1997, 19(4):426-433。
[9]杜学彬,李步云,刘耀炜,1995年永登5.8级地震多种前兆异常特征[J].西北地震学报,1997, 19(4):19-24。
[10]杜学彬,张新基,张慧,中国大陆水氡短临异常空间特征研究[J]地震学报, 1996, 18(3) :358～364。
[11]杜学彬,陈有发,阮爱国,等,祁连大地电场变化与地震[J].西北地震学报, 1994, 16(3):84-87。
[12]李步云.杜学彬,陈志泰.青海省祁连克克里5.1级地震主应变比分析[J]地震,1996,(4):409-416.
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