地磁加卸载响应比方法在地震预报中的应用
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摘要
应用地磁加卸载响应比方法,研究河北省各地磁台1982—2006年地磁Z分量加卸载响应比的高值异常与河北省及邻近地区Ms≥5.0地震之间的对应关系。结果表明:1)在这25年内,共出现了符合判据标准的异常19次,在其后11个月内对应地震仍有13次,应报15个,虚报3次,漏报2次;2)大多数地震之前的异常极大值的空间分布都相对集中于震中区附近;3)其内检预报效能指标R=0.44,通过检验。
The relation between high anomalies of %Z % component of geomagnetism at seimological stations in Hebei province and its neighbouring area for earthquake of %M %s≥5.0 from 1982 to 2006 is analyzed with the method of loading-unloading response ratio.The result shows: 1) during the twenty-five years,ninteen anomalies coincided with the standard at Hebei geomagnetic stations had been obtained,thirteen of which respond to the %M %s≥5.0 earthquakes in eleven months after the earthquakes,fifteen earthquakes should be predicted,three predictions were false and two predictions were missed;2) before most of the earthquakes the spatial distribution of maximal value of the anormalies was relatively concentrated in the vicinity of epicentral area;3) the inner-check prediction efficiency indicator %R %= 0.44,passed the examination.
The relation between high anomalies of %Z % component of geomagnetism at seimological stations in Hebei province and its neighbouring area for earthquake of %M %s≥5.0 from 1982 to 2006 is analyzed with the method of loading-unloading response ratio.The result shows: 1) during the twenty-five years,ninteen anomalies coincided with the standard at Hebei geomagnetic stations had been obtained,thirteen of which respond to the %M %s≥5.0 earthquakes in eleven months after the earthquakes,fifteen earthquakes should be predicted,three predictions were false and two predictions were missed;2) before most of the earthquakes the spatial distribution of maximal value of the anormalies was relatively concentrated in the vicinity of epicentral area;3) the inner-check prediction efficiency indicator %R %= 0.44,passed the examination.
引文
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2宋治平,尹祥础,陈学中.加卸载响应比的时空演变特征及其对地震三要素的预测意义[J].地震学报,1996,18(2):179-186. Song Zhiping,Yin Xiangchu and ChengXuezhong.Time andspatial variation characteristic of loading-unloading responseratio and three essential factors of earthquake forecast signifi-cance[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,1996,18(2):179-186.(in Chinese)
3曾小平,等.地球磁场对太阳风的加卸载响应与地震[J].地震地磁观测与研究,1996,17(1):49-53. Zeng Xiaoping,et al.The load-unload response of geomag-netic field to solar wind and earthquake prediction[J].Se-imological and Geomagnetic Observation and Research,1996,17(1):49-53.(in Chinese)
4冯志生,等.江苏地磁加卸载响应比的异常标志体系[J].地震,2000,20(2):61-68. Feng Zhisheng,et al.Anomaly index system of geomagneticload-un loading response ratio in Jiangsu area[J].Earth-quake,2000,20(2):61-68.(in Chinese)
5朱燕,等.新疆地区地磁加卸载响应比方法应用研究[J].中国地震,2002,18(4):409-416. Zhu Yan,et al.The application for the method of geomag-netic load-unload response ratio in the Xinjiang region[J].Earthquake Reseach in China,2002,18(4):409-416.(inChinese)
6丁鉴海,等.地震地磁学[M].北京:地震出版杜,1994. Ding Jianhai,et al.Earthquake and magnetism scholarly re-search[M].Beijing:Seimological Press,2002.(in Chi-nese)
7陆远忠,陈章立.地震预报的地震学方法[M].北京:地震出版杜,1985. Lu Yuanzhong and Chen Zhangli.Seismography method ofearthquake prediction[M].Beijing:Seimological Press,1985,252.(in Chinese)
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