评价地质因素对地震灾害风险影响的一个模糊集方法
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摘要
提出了地质因素对震害风险影响的评价问题 ,分析与选择了有关的地层因素指标。给出了指标的量化表达方式与论域空间 ,从烈度的角度对不同地震、震中距、区域条件下的建筑物震害数据进行了归一化处理。针对邢台、海城等大震的震害与地层资料 ,建立了地层岩性、深度、厚度等因素与震害程度之间的模糊因果律推理模型 ,给出了多维可能性 -概率模糊风险的算法。由模糊信息传递的方式解决了可能性 -概率风险分析过程中地层与震害变量空间分离的问题 ,并在此基础上完成了可以衡量相关因素之“贡献”量的风险评价方法。然后通过实例说明了如何用这种方法针对地层因素进行震害风险评价。
Risk analysis about earthquake involves many different aspects such as seismic intensity, site condition, distribution and antiseismic capability of buildings, supporting system of disaster precautions and rescue etc. However, little effort has been made to quantitatively research the influences of these factors on earthquake disaster risk so far. In this paper, the evaluation of the influence of geological factors on earthquake disaster risk is discussed in detail. There are many geological factors that influence significantly the degree of seismic hazard, such as stratum, groundwater, topography, seismogenic faults etc, among which the stratum plays an important role. The algorithm for evaluating the influence of geological factors on earthquake hazard risk is established here by considering mainly stratum, especially soft formation. The evaluating indexes are mainly lithology, buried depth and thickness of the stratum, and the lithology index is quantitated with shear wave velocity ( v s). In order to elementarily dispel the interference of earthquake magnitude and epicentral distance in the analysis of the relationship between earthquake hazard of the buildings and the site conditions, it is necessary to normalize the earthquake hazard data from different intensity background by timing a coefficient. After dividing by the maximum of the obtained data, the normalized data is simply called Relative Earthquake Disaster Coefficient of Buildings ( RDC ). The risk factors are very complicated, so it is extremely difficult to collect enough data and set an organic connection between the geological factors and earthquake hazard variables in statistic meanings. Therefore, the theory and methodology of fuzzy system are needed for the analysis. After giving the domains of the variables, a fuzzy relation matrix between lithology ( L ), thickness ( T ), depth ( D ) of the stratum and RDC can be established with Multi dimension Information Distribution. On the basis of it, the Possibility Probability Fuzzy Risk, which reflects better the nature of the risk, needs to be calculated but lacks an algorithm in the case of multi variables (here is 4). A universal algorithm with its corresponding definitions, formulas, and calculating steps is established in this paper, which is applicable to the similar analysis even if the input variables are different. When the values of lithology, thickness and depth of stratum samples are input into the calculation model of the Possibility Probability Fuzzy Risk, at first the possibility probability distribution of the combination of these stratum factors is calculated on their own variables space, while earthquake hazard risk analysis requires the evaluation of the contribution of those factors to earthquake disaster indexes in another space. Risk analysis on the basis of possibility probability distribution of relevant factors in different spaces, however, has not been reported in the previous work. In this paper, the question is solved by means of fuzzy information transmission of risk possibility with a given formula, utilizing the fuzzy causality matrix between stratum factors and RDC . An example of how to use this method to evaluate the influence of stratum factors on earthquake disasters risk is illustrated by the data of the stratum and earthquake hazard of Xingtai large earthquake in 1966 and Haicheng large earthquake in 1975. Although lithology, thickness and depth of the stratum are taken as the basic input parameters in the above mentioned example, one may increase, decrease and change the input parameters according to practical needs and information of risk evaluation.
Risk analysis about earthquake involves many different aspects such as seismic intensity, site condition, distribution and antiseismic capability of buildings, supporting system of disaster precautions and rescue etc. However, little effort has been made to quantitatively research the influences of these factors on earthquake disaster risk so far. In this paper, the evaluation of the influence of geological factors on earthquake disaster risk is discussed in detail. There are many geological factors that influence significantly the degree of seismic hazard, such as stratum, groundwater, topography, seismogenic faults etc, among which the stratum plays an important role. The algorithm for evaluating the influence of geological factors on earthquake hazard risk is established here by considering mainly stratum, especially soft formation. The evaluating indexes are mainly lithology, buried depth and thickness of the stratum, and the lithology index is quantitated with shear wave velocity ( v s). In order to elementarily dispel the interference of earthquake magnitude and epicentral distance in the analysis of the relationship between earthquake hazard of the buildings and the site conditions, it is necessary to normalize the earthquake hazard data from different intensity background by timing a coefficient. After dividing by the maximum of the obtained data, the normalized data is simply called Relative Earthquake Disaster Coefficient of Buildings ( RDC ). The risk factors are very complicated, so it is extremely difficult to collect enough data and set an organic connection between the geological factors and earthquake hazard variables in statistic meanings. Therefore, the theory and methodology of fuzzy system are needed for the analysis. After giving the domains of the variables, a fuzzy relation matrix between lithology ( L ), thickness ( T ), depth ( D ) of the stratum and RDC can be established with Multi dimension Information Distribution. On the basis of it, the Possibility Probability Fuzzy Risk, which reflects better the nature of the risk, needs to be calculated but lacks an algorithm in the case of multi variables (here is 4). A universal algorithm with its corresponding definitions, formulas, and calculating steps is established in this paper, which is applicable to the similar analysis even if the input variables are different. When the values of lithology, thickness and depth of stratum samples are input into the calculation model of the Possibility Probability Fuzzy Risk, at first the possibility probability distribution of the combination of these stratum factors is calculated on their own variables space, while earthquake hazard risk analysis requires the evaluation of the contribution of those factors to earthquake disaster indexes in another space. Risk analysis on the basis of possibility probability distribution of relevant factors in different spaces, however, has not been reported in the previous work. In this paper, the question is solved by means of fuzzy information transmission of risk possibility with a given formula, utilizing the fuzzy causality matrix between stratum factors and RDC . An example of how to use this method to evaluate the influence of stratum factors on earthquake disasters risk is illustrated by the data of the stratum and earthquake hazard of Xingtai large earthquake in 1966 and Haicheng large earthquake in 1975. Although lithology, thickness and depth of the stratum are taken as the basic input parameters in the above mentioned example, one may increase, decrease and change the input parameters according to practical needs and information of risk evaluation.
引文
中国科学院地质研究所地震队,1969,邢台地区典型地段震害差异性的地质调查报告
高振寰等,1982,唐山地震震害的若干地质问题
中国科学院地质研究所邢台地震异常区地震地质队地质组,1967,井陉-获鹿地震破坏异常区的地质调查报告。
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胡聿贤.1988.地震工程学〔M〕.北京:地震出版社
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中华人民共和国建设部主编.2001.中华人民共和国国家标准,建筑抗震设计规范(GB500112001)〔Z〕.北京:中国建筑工业出版社.
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中国科学院工程力学研究所.1979.海城地震震害〔M〕.北京:地震出版社.
InstituteofEngineeringMechanics,AcademiaSinica.1979.HazardsoftheHaichengEarthquake〔M〕.Seismologi calPress,Beijing(inChinese).
高振寰等,1982,唐山地震震害的若干地质问题
中国科学院地质研究所邢台地震异常区地震地质队地质组,1967,井陉-获鹿地震破坏异常区的地质调查报告。
白海玲,黄崇福.2000.自然灾害的模糊风险〔J〕.自然灾害学报,9(1):47—53.
BAIHai ling,HUANGChong fu.2000.Fuzzyriskofnaturaldisasters〔J〕.JournalofNaturalDisasters,9(1):47—53(inChinese).
陈立德,赵维城,等.1979.一九七六年龙陵地震〔M〕.北京:地震出版社
CHENLi de,ZHAOWei cheng,etal.1979.LonglingEarthquakein1976〔M〕.SeismologicalPress,Beijing(inChinese).
河北省地震局.1986.一九六六年邢台地震〔M〕.北京:地震出版社.
SeismologicalBureauofHebeiProvince.1986.XingtaiEarthquakein1966〔M〕.SeismologicalPress,Beijing(inChinese).
胡聿贤.1988.地震工程学〔M〕.北京:地震出版社
HUYu xian.1988.SeismologicalEngineering〔M〕.SeismologicalPress,Beijing(inChinese).
黄崇福,王家鼎.1992.模糊信息分析与应用〔M〕.北京:北京师范大学出版社.
HUANGChong fu,WANGJia ding.1992.FuzzyInformationAnalysisanditsApplication〔M〕.PublishingHouseofBeijingNormalUniversity,Beijing(inChinese).
简明工程地质手册编写委员会.1998.简明工程地质手册〔M〕.北京:中国建筑工业出版社.
CompilationBoardofConciseManualofEngineeringGeology.1998.ConciseManualofEngineeringGeology〔M〕.PublishingHouseofChinaArchitecturalIndustry,Beijing(inChinese).
蒋溥,戴丽思.1993.工程地震学概论〔M〕.北京:地震出版社.
JIANGPu,DAILi si.1993.AnIntroductiontoEngineeringSeismology〔M〕.SeismologicalPress,Beijing(inChi nese).
刘颖,谢君斐,等.1984.砂土震动液化〔M〕.北京:地震出版社.
LIUYing,XIEJun fei,etal.1984.VibrationLiquefactionofSandySoil〔M〕.SeismologicalPress,Beijing(inChinese).
王景明,等.1993.华北地震灾害与对策〔M〕.北京:地震出版社.
WANGJing ming,etal.1993.EarthquakeDisasterinNorthChinaanditsCountermeasures〔M〕.SeismologicalPress,Beijing(inChinese).
姚清林,黄崇福.2002.地震灾害风险因素和风险评估指标的模糊算法〔J〕.自然灾害学报,11(2):51—58.
YAOQing lin,HUANGChong fu.2002.Mainfactorsinfluencingseismicdisastersriskandafuzzyalgorithmfortheriskevaluationindex〔J〕.JournalofNaturalDisasters,11(2):51—58(inChinese).
中华人民共和国建设部主编.2001.中华人民共和国国家标准,建筑抗震设计规范(GB500112001)〔Z〕.北京:中国建筑工业出版社.
MinistryofConstructionofthePeople’sRepublicofChina.2001.StateCriterionofthePeople’sRepublicofChina,TheRegulationsofSeismicDesignofBuildings(GB500112001)〔Z〕.PublishingHouseofChinaArchitecturalIndustry,Beijing(inChinese).
中国科学院工程力学研究所.1979.海城地震震害〔M〕.北京:地震出版社.
InstituteofEngineeringMechanics,AcademiaSinica.1979.HazardsoftheHaichengEarthquake〔M〕.Seismologi calPress,Beijing(inChinese).
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