中强地震平静是汶川8.0级地震前最显著的地震活动异常
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摘要
本文对四川地区1923年以来5.0级以上地震资料进行了分析研究。结果表明,研究区中强地震经历了4个较为完整的周期活动,中强地震具有16年的准周期活动特征,平静期持续5年左右,从2008年汶川8.0级地震开始,研究区将进入第5个活动周期,其可能的持续时间为2024年前后。2008年汶川8.0级地震前,5.0~5.9级、6.0~6.9级、7.0~8.0级三个档次的地震事件的平静间隔均达到统计时段的历史之最,三个档次地震的平静均被汶川8.0级地震直接打破,中强地震超长平静是汶川8.0级地震前最为显著的异常现象。
This paper analyzed MS≥5.0 earthquakes since 1923 in the region of Sichuan.The result shows that strong earthquakes in the region experienced four complete cycle of seismic activities,and there is a 16-year quasi-periodic characteristics for medium to strong earthquake.The quiet period lasted about 5 years.Starting from the 2008 Wenchuan 8.0 earthquake,the study area will enter into the fifth active cycle and continue to about 2024.Quiescence intervals for M5.0~5.9,M6.0~6.9,and M7.0~8.0 events reached the historical highest before the May 12,2008 Wenchuan 8.0 earthquake.Long-term quiescence of strong earthquake is the most significant anomaly before the Wenchuan 8.0 earthquake.
This paper analyzed MS≥5.0 earthquakes since 1923 in the region of Sichuan.The result shows that strong earthquakes in the region experienced four complete cycle of seismic activities,and there is a 16-year quasi-periodic characteristics for medium to strong earthquake.The quiet period lasted about 5 years.Starting from the 2008 Wenchuan 8.0 earthquake,the study area will enter into the fifth active cycle and continue to about 2024.Quiescence intervals for M5.0~5.9,M6.0~6.9,and M7.0~8.0 events reached the historical highest before the May 12,2008 Wenchuan 8.0 earthquake.Long-term quiescence of strong earthquake is the most significant anomaly before the Wenchuan 8.0 earthquake.
引文
[1]时振梁,张少泉,张敏政,等.地震工作手册[M].北京:地震出版社,1990.
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[5]马胜利,蒋海昆,扈小燕,等.基于声发射实验结果讨论大震前地震活动平静现象的机制[J].地震地质,2004,29(4):426-435.
[6]蒋海昆,马胜利,张流,等.雁列式断层组合变形过程中的声发射特征[J].地震学报,2002,24(4):385-396.
[7]Ohtake M.Seismicity gap near oaxaca,scuthern Mexico,as a probable precursor tolarge earthquake[R].1981,115:375-385.
[8]Wyss M,Habermann R E.Precursory seismic quiescence[J].Pageoph,1998,126(2):319-332.
[9]Wyss M,Shirnazaki K,Urabe T.Quantitative mapping of a precursory seismic quiescence to theIzu-Oshi ma 1990(M6.5)earthquake,Japan[J].Geophys J Int,1996,127:735-743.
[10]Katsumata K,Kasahara.Precursory seismic quiescence before the 1994 Kurile earthquake(MW=8.3)revealed by threeindependent seismic catalogs[J].Pure and Applied Geophysics,1999,155(2-4):443-470.
[11]Huang Q,Oncel A O,Sobolev G A.Precursory seismicity changes associated with theMW=7.41999 August 17 Izmit Turkey)earthquake[J].Geophysical Journal Internationa1,2002,151:235-242.
[12]Huang Q,Sobolev G A.Nagao TCharacteristics of the seismic quiescence and activation patterns be-fore theM=7.2 Kobe earthquake,Jahuary 17,1995[J].Tectonophysics,2001,337:99-116.
[13]Di Giovambattista R,Tyupkin Y.Seismicity patterns bef0re theM=5.8 2002,alermo(Italy)earth-quake:Seismic quiescence and accelerating seismicity[J].Tectonophysics,2004,384(1-4):243-255.
[14]王林瑛,陈佩燕,林碧苍.昆仑山口西8.1级地震前的地震活动异常及预测意义的讨论[J].西北地震学报,2003,25(1):22-27.
①中国地震局监测预报司,中国强地震目录(公元前23世纪—公元2005),2005年。
[2]Mogi.Earthquake Prediction[M].Academic Press,Tokyo.1985.
[3]Scholz C H.Mechanisms of seismic quiescences[J].Pure Appl Geophys,1988,126:701-718.
[4]陈立德.丽江7.0级地震短临异常特征及震源硬化模型[J].地震,1998,18(1):7-13.
[5]马胜利,蒋海昆,扈小燕,等.基于声发射实验结果讨论大震前地震活动平静现象的机制[J].地震地质,2004,29(4):426-435.
[6]蒋海昆,马胜利,张流,等.雁列式断层组合变形过程中的声发射特征[J].地震学报,2002,24(4):385-396.
[7]Ohtake M.Seismicity gap near oaxaca,scuthern Mexico,as a probable precursor tolarge earthquake[R].1981,115:375-385.
[8]Wyss M,Habermann R E.Precursory seismic quiescence[J].Pageoph,1998,126(2):319-332.
[9]Wyss M,Shirnazaki K,Urabe T.Quantitative mapping of a precursory seismic quiescence to theIzu-Oshi ma 1990(M6.5)earthquake,Japan[J].Geophys J Int,1996,127:735-743.
[10]Katsumata K,Kasahara.Precursory seismic quiescence before the 1994 Kurile earthquake(MW=8.3)revealed by threeindependent seismic catalogs[J].Pure and Applied Geophysics,1999,155(2-4):443-470.
[11]Huang Q,Oncel A O,Sobolev G A.Precursory seismicity changes associated with theMW=7.41999 August 17 Izmit Turkey)earthquake[J].Geophysical Journal Internationa1,2002,151:235-242.
[12]Huang Q,Sobolev G A.Nagao TCharacteristics of the seismic quiescence and activation patterns be-fore theM=7.2 Kobe earthquake,Jahuary 17,1995[J].Tectonophysics,2001,337:99-116.
[13]Di Giovambattista R,Tyupkin Y.Seismicity patterns bef0re theM=5.8 2002,alermo(Italy)earth-quake:Seismic quiescence and accelerating seismicity[J].Tectonophysics,2004,384(1-4):243-255.
[14]王林瑛,陈佩燕,林碧苍.昆仑山口西8.1级地震前的地震活动异常及预测意义的讨论[J].西北地震学报,2003,25(1):22-27.
①中国地震局监测预报司,中国强地震目录(公元前23世纪—公元2005),2005年。
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