滇西地震预报实验场及邻区短临预报量化跟踪决策方案

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英文篇名：A Quantitatively Tracing Decision-Making Scenario for Short-impending Prediction in West Yunnan Earthquake Test Site and Nearby 中文刊名：地震研究 英文刊名：Journal of Seismological Research 作者：金明培 ; 黄绍裘 ; 郭咸华 ; 杨芬 ; 赵家本 英文作者：Jin Mingpei Huang Shaoqiu Guo Xianhua Yang Fen Zhao Jiaben (West Yunnan Earthquake Test Site ; Xiaguan ; 671000) 中文关键词：短临预报 ; 决策方案 ; 滇西 英文关键词：short-impending prediction ; decision-making scenario ; west Yunnan earthquake test site and nearby 出版日期：2001-10-23 机构：滇西地震预报实验场,滇西地震预报实验场,滇西地震预报实验场,滇西地震预报实验场,滇西地震预报实验场 云南下关,671000 ,云南下关,671000 ,云南下关,671000 ,云南下关,671000 ,云南下关,671000 年：2001 期：04 出版单位：地震研究

摘要

借鉴了数学上降元法解多元方程的思路 ,分步进行地震三要素的短临预报尝试。首先确定一个较大尺度的研究区域 ,确定所预报震级下限 ,用多条短临预报指标和自适应加权综合集成概率模式预报时间 ;又在有时间预报的前提下 ,利用地震活动性图象确定最危险的具体地点 ;再根据前兆异常幅度和持续时间、异常数量以及宏观异常情况估计可能的震级范围 ,从而初步实现地震的三要素短临预报。该方法具有较好的可操作性。
Using a mathematical method of solving multi-equation for reference and trying to perform short-impending of three seismic factors. Namely, first a fairly large sized studying area is determined and then a low limit of predicted magnitude. The multi short-impending prediction indexes and probability mode of comprehensive integration of self-adaptation weight is used to predict the time. Under the precondition of having time prediction, a seismicity pattern is used to determine the most risk location. Then based on the precursory anomalous amplitude, duration time, anomalous quantity and macro anomalies, a possible magnitude is estimated. The three factors of short-impending prediction are primarily realized. This method has a fairly good operability.

引文

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    〔3〕张天中等.地震短期预测的概率方法浅义,国际地震动态,1998,(7):1～5
    〔4〕金明培.滇西北中强震前震级频度分布与G -R关系式的偏离特征,地震研究,1999,22(3):228～233