2008年乌恰6.9级地震与新疆地震趋势研究
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摘要
新疆在连续3年没有发生6级以上地震的背景下,2008年分别发生3月21日于田7.3级、10月5日乌恰6.9级以及2次5级地震。为了正确把握未来几年新疆地震活动状态和震情发展趋势,针对新疆境内6.7级以上强震活动的非均一性和新疆地震成组性活动特征进行了探讨分析,结合乌恰6.9级地震较深入分析了乌恰及周围地区地震活动的层次性特征。研究结果表明,乌恰6.9级地震发生后的未来几年新疆大区域范围处于7级左右地震的相对平静时段,未来2年或3年新疆仍处在6级地震成组活跃时段中,乌恰6.9级地震的发生预示着乌恰及周围地区将进入新一轮的中强震活跃时段。
There were no earthquakes with MS≥6.0 in recent three years,then Yutian MS7.3 earthquake on Mar.21,Wuqia MS6.9 earthquake on Oct.5 and two MS≥5.0 earthquakes occurred in 2008 respectively.In order to grasp the seismicity state in the years to come in Xinjiang,in connection with the unhomogeneity of MS≥6.7 strong earthquakes activity and grouping activity characteristics of earthquakes in Xinjiang,combined with Wuqia MS6.9 earthquake,the hierarchical characteristics of earthquakes activity in Wuqia and its surroundings was analyzed in detail.The results show there will be a relatively calm period of MS7.0 earthquake in the years to come and grouping activity period of MS6.0 in 2 or 3 years in Xinjiang;the occurring of Wuqia MS6.9 earthquake foreshows there will be a new active period of moderate and strong earthquakes in Wuqia and its surroundings.
There were no earthquakes with MS≥6.0 in recent three years,then Yutian MS7.3 earthquake on Mar.21,Wuqia MS6.9 earthquake on Oct.5 and two MS≥5.0 earthquakes occurred in 2008 respectively.In order to grasp the seismicity state in the years to come in Xinjiang,in connection with the unhomogeneity of MS≥6.7 strong earthquakes activity and grouping activity characteristics of earthquakes in Xinjiang,combined with Wuqia MS6.9 earthquake,the hierarchical characteristics of earthquakes activity in Wuqia and its surroundings was analyzed in detail.The results show there will be a relatively calm period of MS7.0 earthquake in the years to come and grouping activity period of MS6.0 in 2 or 3 years in Xinjiang;the occurring of Wuqia MS6.9 earthquake foreshows there will be a new active period of moderate and strong earthquakes in Wuqia and its surroundings.
引文
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[2]张国民.我国大陆强震活动的韵律特征[J].地震地质,1987,9(2):27-37.
[3]汪良谋.华北强震时-空变化某些特点与近期强震活动趋势[J].地震地质,1987,9(2):39-46.
[4]马宏生,邵志刚,周龙泉,等.中国大陆7级地震活动状态分析[J].地震,2008,28(3):8-13.
[5]胥颐,刘建华,刘福田,等.天山—帕米尔结合带的地壳速度结构及地震活动研究[J].地球物理学报,2006,49(2):469-472.
[6]高国英,王筱荣,温和平.天山地区中强地震预报判据及方案[J].内陆地震,2008,22(2):104-114.
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