非线性时间序列分析及其在矿井涌水预测中的应用研究
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摘要
根据梧桐庄煤矿涌水量数据,首先用R/S分析计算得到Hurst指数值为0.8627,表明该矿井涌水量变化趋势具有长期相关性和持续性;然后利用混沌时间序列的全域预测法对历年来的数据进行建模预测分析,计算得到了预测模型以及预测值,结果表明,预测数据和实际值误差较小。利用非线性时间序列分析可以揭示矿井涌水的非线性特征,并对其进行预测,从而为矿井涌水量的预测提供了一种新的方法。
According to the hydraulic discharge of Wutongzhuang coal mine,by using R/S method,the Hurst exponent obtained is 0.8627,it indicates that the mine′s water inrush discharge variation trend is long-term related as well as durative.Then by using the whole domain method of chaos time serial method to analyze and create a forecast model,the prediction value is calculated.The result shows that the error between the prediction data and the real value is small.The use of non-linear time series analysis can disclose the non-linear characteristics of mine water inrush discharge and predict mine water inrush discharge.Finally,a new method for the prediction of mine water inrush discharge is presented in the paper.
According to the hydraulic discharge of Wutongzhuang coal mine,by using R/S method,the Hurst exponent obtained is 0.8627,it indicates that the mine′s water inrush discharge variation trend is long-term related as well as durative.Then by using the whole domain method of chaos time serial method to analyze and create a forecast model,the prediction value is calculated.The result shows that the error between the prediction data and the real value is small.The use of non-linear time series analysis can disclose the non-linear characteristics of mine water inrush discharge and predict mine water inrush discharge.Finally,a new method for the prediction of mine water inrush discharge is presented in the paper.
引文
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[2]杨永国.灰色时序组合模型及其在矿井涌水量预测中的应用[J].水文地质工程地质,1996,23(4):36~38.
[3]唐依民,肖江.矿井涌水量时间序列分析的域重新标度法[J].煤炭学报,2000,25(1):66~69.
[4]Hurst,H.E.et al.Long-term storage:an experimental study.Constable,London,1965.
[5]Casdagli M.Nonlinear prediction of chaotic time series[J].PhysicaD,1989,35:320~335.
[6]吴怀宇.时间序列分析与综合[M].武汉:武汉大学出版社,2004.147~150.
[7]韩非.矿井涌水量中的混沌及其最大预报时间尺度[J].煤炭学报,2001,26(5):520~524.
[8]夏银飞,张季如,夏元友.混沌时间序列在路基工后沉降中的应用[J].华中科技大学学报,2005,22(3):89~93.
[9]虎雄林,吴小平,王彬等.用相空间重建法研究武定地震序列[J].地震研究,2004,(3):19~23.
[10]杨永国,余志伟,郭正堂等.基于地质记录用时域组合模型预测气候变化趋势的初步研究[J].地球物理学报,1996,39(1):37~46.
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