珠江三角洲未来几年地震危险性分析
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摘要
在分析珠江三角洲地区历史、现今地震活动性和前兆观测资料后认为 ,今后几年该区将处于地震活动水平较低的平静时段 ,陆地区域发生MS5级以上地震的可能性很小。未来地震的可能性将主要来自陆地 4级地震、周边地区和近海海域 5级地震。
After analyzing the historic earthquake catalogue, present seismicity and observed precursor data of Pearl River Delta area, we consider that it will be in a quiet period with low-level seismic activity in some years to come.The probability of occurring M S≥5 0 earthquake is very small on the land. The about M S4 0 earthquakes in the future will mainly come from land and the about M S5.0 earthquakes in the future will come from the surrounding area and offshore area.
After analyzing the historic earthquake catalogue, present seismicity and observed precursor data of Pearl River Delta area, we consider that it will be in a quiet period with low-level seismic activity in some years to come.The probability of occurring M S≥5 0 earthquake is very small on the land. The about M S4 0 earthquakes in the future will mainly come from land and the about M S5.0 earthquakes in the future will come from the surrounding area and offshore area.
引文
①闻则刚,广东地区现代构造应力场的模似计算,2001.
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[5] 魏柏林.1931年南海西沙群岛北6级地震震中位置与震级的讨论[J].华南地震,2001,21(1):43-48
[6] 傅征祥.中国大陆地震活动性力学研究[M].北京:地震出版社,1997.191-192
[7] 魏柏林,郭钦华,李纯清.论三水地震成因[J].中国地震,1999,15(3):247-257
[1] 魏柏林,陈仁法,黄日恒.广东省地震构造概论[M].北京:地震出版社,2000.137-138
[2] 丁原章,黄新辉.珠江三角洲地区未来地震危险性预测[J].华南地震,1998,18(1):56-63.
[3] 陈伟光.珠江三角洲及其邻近海域第四纪地质与地震危险性[J].华南地震,1998,18(2):58-63
[4] 黄日恒.珠江三角洲地区地震危险性刍议[J].华南地震,1998,18(1):64-69
[5] 魏柏林.1931年南海西沙群岛北6级地震震中位置与震级的讨论[J].华南地震,2001,21(1):43-48
[6] 傅征祥.中国大陆地震活动性力学研究[M].北京:地震出版社,1997.191-192
[7] 魏柏林,郭钦华,李纯清.论三水地震成因[J].中国地震,1999,15(3):247-257
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