小波变换在东北地震趋势分析中的应用
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摘要
本文在多年对东北地震大形势研究基础上,根据1900年以来东北地区地震目录资料,按年最大震级、地震频度和地震活动度分别建立三个时间序列f(t),利用离散小波变换对其进行分解,结果发现三个序列的小波变换细节系数均显示平均约20年周期的时序特征,并与该区地震活跃期符合得较好。依此,对该区地震活动发展趋势作了预测,认为当前地震活跃期大约在2008年结束。
On the basis of analysis about great situation of NE China earthquakes for more years,three seismic time sequences with respect to annual maximal magnitude,earthquake frequency and seismicity measure have been established,respectively,according to the earthquake catalogue in the area since 1900.By means of discrete wavelet transform method the result shows that all detail coefficients of wavelet transform in respect of three time sequences have period characteristic with 20 years.It coincides with seismic active period in the area.A prediction of seismicity trend based on the result is as follows: the seismic active period at present will be over in about 2008.
On the basis of analysis about great situation of NE China earthquakes for more years,three seismic time sequences with respect to annual maximal magnitude,earthquake frequency and seismicity measure have been established,respectively,according to the earthquake catalogue in the area since 1900.By means of discrete wavelet transform method the result shows that all detail coefficients of wavelet transform in respect of three time sequences have period characteristic with 20 years.It coincides with seismic active period in the area.A prediction of seismicity trend based on the result is as follows: the seismic active period at present will be over in about 2008.
引文
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[2]孙文福,等.2008年前东北地震大形势研究[J].华南地震,25(3),2005,25—34.
[3]洪再吉编.概率统计[M].南京:江苏科学技术出版社,1984,413—454.
[4]安鸿志,等.统计模型与预报方法[M].北京:气象出版社,1986,37—135.
[5]安鸿志,等著.时间序列的分析与应用[M].北京:科学出版社,1983,151—193.
[6]潘红宇编著.时间序列分析[M].北京:对外经济贸易大学出版社,2006,39—52.
[7]董长虹,等编著.MATLab小波分析工具箱原理与应用[M],北京:国防工业出版社,2004,1—64.
[8]郑治真,等编著.小波变换及其MATLAB工具的应用[M].北京:地震出版社,2001,1—86.
[9]飞思科技产品研发中心编著,MATLAB 6.5辅助小波分析与应用[M].北京:电子工业出版社,2003,6—18.
[10]郑治真,等.瞬时频谱分析及其在地震趋势估计中的应用[J].地震学报,15(1),1993,68—75.
[11]杜兴信.基于小波变换的动态地震活动周期分析[J].地震,17(3),1997,257—264.
[12]邵辉成,等.小波分析在地震趋势预测中的应用[J].中国地震,16(1),2000,48—52.
[13]吴戈,等.东北大陆历史地震研究[M].成都地图出版社,1994,29~50.
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