山东及邻区调制地震异常特征与短临指标研究
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摘要
利用调制地震方法通过对山东及邻区１９７０年以来的所有定位地震进行时间空间扫描。对该研究区内１０个ＭＬ≥５．５级地震前的调制地震频度、小震调制比Ｒｍ、小震调制异常面积Ｓｒｍ和调制地震条带的异常变化进行分析。研究表明，震前调制小震频度的突跳、Ｒｍ－ｔ图出现第３次突跳和Ｓｒｍ异常区的连续多次重迭和调制地震条带交汇区可以作为中强地震时、空、强三要素短临预报指标。
The spatial and temporal scanning has been done for all the located earthquakes occurred in Shandong province and neighboring area since 1970 by the modulated earthquake method.The authors have analyzed the abnormal variation of the modulated frequency of earthquakes,the small earthquakes modulated ratio (R m),the abnormal area of the small earthquakes modulated ratio (S rm ) and the modulated belts.The results show that the abrupt jump of the frequency of small earthquakes modulated,the third abrupt jump in R m-t curve,the consecutive multi-overlap of the abnormal area of S rm and the intersection of modulated belts can been adopted as the short impending term indicates for the moderate earthquake prediction in the domain of time,space and magnitude.
The spatial and temporal scanning has been done for all the located earthquakes occurred in Shandong province and neighboring area since 1970 by the modulated earthquake method.The authors have analyzed the abnormal variation of the modulated frequency of earthquakes,the small earthquakes modulated ratio (R m),the abnormal area of the small earthquakes modulated ratio (S rm ) and the modulated belts.The results show that the abrupt jump of the frequency of small earthquakes modulated,the third abrupt jump in R m-t curve,the consecutive multi-overlap of the abnormal area of S rm and the intersection of modulated belts can been adopted as the short impending term indicates for the moderate earthquake prediction in the domain of time,space and magnitude.
引文
1秦保燕等．由调制小震法初探中强地震时空强预报．地壳形变与地震，1986，6（4）：293～3032秦保燕等．震源系统小震调制比（Rm）和异常面积（Srm）起伏加剧的时空特征与强震的中、短期预报．西北地震学报，1994，16（3）：1～103秦保燕．由孕震后期非线性层次演化探讨短临预报问题．地震研究，1998，21（1）：1～12
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