基于层次分析法的城市交通系统抗灾风险分析
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摘要
现代化城市中各种重大突发灾害事件时有发生。为了提高城市交通系统抗灾变风险能力,以层次分析法(AHP)为基础,根据城市交通系统功能特点,分析了当前城市交通系统抗灾变风险因素,从人员因素、抗灾救灾设备设施、道路交通系统和组织管理等方面,选定14个因素作为其风险评价指标,构建了城市交通系统抗灾变风险因素的层次分析模型,得出了各评价指标的合成权重;并按各项因素指标对总风险影响大小进行了排序,分析了城市交通系统抗灾变最为关键的因素。分析结果表明:道路交通设施是影响城市交通系统灾变风险的首要因素,提出注重道路交通建设是降低抗灾变风险的重要举措。
Various unexpected disasters often occur in modern cities.In order to improve capabilities of disaster resistance,based on the analytic hierarchy process(AHP),according to the characteristics of urban transportation systems,risk factors of disaster resistance are analyzed.14 assessment indexes are selected as risk assessing indicator in terms of human factors,disaster relief equipment and facilities,road transportation system,and organizational management.Then,AHP model of disaster-resistant factors is designed,which achieves integrated weight of evaluation indexes.The various factors are ranked based on the risk degree,and several key factors for the systems are studied.Analyzing results indicate that the main factors affecting the disaster resistance of urban transportation systems are facilities of road and traffic.Therefore,strengthening their construction is important measures to reduce hazards in cities.
Various unexpected disasters often occur in modern cities.In order to improve capabilities of disaster resistance,based on the analytic hierarchy process(AHP),according to the characteristics of urban transportation systems,risk factors of disaster resistance are analyzed.14 assessment indexes are selected as risk assessing indicator in terms of human factors,disaster relief equipment and facilities,road transportation system,and organizational management.Then,AHP model of disaster-resistant factors is designed,which achieves integrated weight of evaluation indexes.The various factors are ranked based on the risk degree,and several key factors for the systems are studied.Analyzing results indicate that the main factors affecting the disaster resistance of urban transportation systems are facilities of road and traffic.Therefore,strengthening their construction is important measures to reduce hazards in cities.
引文
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[2]宋洪涛,张力,王以群,廉士乾.用层次分析法分析核电站中影响人误的组织因素[J].中国安全科学学报,2007,17(5):32-36.
[3]刘爱文,夏珊,徐超.汶川地震交通系统震害及震后抢修[J].震灾防御技术,2008,3(3):243-250.
[4]尤建新,陈桂香,陈强.城市生命线系统的非工程防灾减灾[J].自然灾害学报,2006,15(5):194-198.
[5]彭春露.城市突发事件紧急救援管理可靠性问题研究[D].上海:同济大学,2006:58.
[6]黄典剑,吴宗之,蔡嗣经,蒋仲安.城市应急避难所的应急适应能力——基于层次分析法的评价方法[J].自然灾害学报,2006,15(1):52-58.
[7]彭祖赠,孙韫玉.模糊(Fuzzy)数学及其应用[M].武汉:武汉大学出版社,2007:90.
[8]沈群,黄晓明,卞凤兰.基于层次分析法的收费公路债务风险评价[J].公路交通科技,2009,26(1):154-157.
[9]陈水利,李敬功.模糊集理论及其应用[M].北京:科学出版社,2005:242.
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