GM模型在南北地震带中南段地区强地震序列预测中的应用

英文篇名：The Application of GM Model To Predicting Strong Earthquake Sequences In the Region of Middle and Southern Segments of South-north Seismic Belt
中文刊名：地震研究
英文刊名：Journal of Seismological Research
作者：陆明勇
英文作者：Luming Yong (Comprehensive Observation Center ; CSB ; Beijing 100039 ; China)
中文关键词：南北地震带中南段地区 ; 强地震序列预测 ; 灰色系统模型
英文关键词：The region of middle and southern segments of south-north seismic belt ; prediction of strong earthquake sequence ; grey system model
出版日期：2002-08-25
机构：中国地震局综合观测中心北京100039
年：2002
期：03
出版单位：地震研究

摘要

对南北地震带中南段地区M≥ 6 5强地震序列进行灰色系统GM模型的建模 ,从模型检验精度和结果看 ,模型的关联度R、后验差比值C、小误差概率P等有关指标都说明所建模型可靠、精确。因此灰色系统GM模型在南北地震带中南段地区强地震序列预测中的应用是可行的。
In this paper,grey system GM model for strong earthquake( M ≥6 5)sequences in the region of middle and southern segments of south-north seismic belt is set up.From the tested accuracy and the results calculated by the model,some relative indexes of the GM model such as the association degree R?correlative value of posterior error C and microerror probability P and so on show that the grey system GM model for strong earthquake sequences in the region of middle and southern segments of south-north seismic belt is reliable and accurate.Therefore,the application of grey system GM model to predicting strong earthquake sequences in the region of middle and southern segments of south-north seismic belt is feasible.

引文

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