灰色系统理论在地震预报中的应用

英文篇名：APPLICATION OF GREY SYSTEM THEORY TO PREDICTION OF EARTHQUAKE
中文刊名：大地测量与地球动力学
英文刊名：Crustal Deformation and Earthquake
作者：彭立国 ; 陆明勇
英文作者：Peng Liguo1 ; 2) and Lu Mingyong2) 1)Department of Earth and Space Science ; University of Science and Technology of China ; Hefei 230026 2)Center for Comprehensive Surveying ; CEA ; Beijing 100039)
中文关键词：灰色系统理论 ; 地震预报 ; 应用 ; 模型 ; 南北地震带北段
英文关键词：grey system theory ; prediction of earthquake ; application ; model ; region of northern segments of South-North Seismic Belt
出版日期：2004-05-30
机构：中国科学技术大学地球和空间科学系,中国地震局综合观测中心合肥230026,中国地震局综合观测中心,北京100039 ,北京100039
年：2004
期：02
出版单位：大地测量与地球动力学

摘要

研究了灰色系统理论在地震预报中的应用 ,作为应用实例 ,对南北地震带北段及其邻近地区M≥ 6 .0地震进行了建模和预测。根据模型检验精度、模型的关联度R、后验差比值C、小误差概率P等项指标说明所建模型可靠、精确 ,灰色系统理论用于地震预报是可行的
In this paper,the application of grey system theory to the prediction of earthquakes studied,and GM model for strong earthquake(%M%≥6.0) in the region of northern segments of South-North Seismic Belt and its adjacent area have been built and the prediction is done. From the tested accuracy and the results calculated by the model ,some indexes of the GM model, such as the association degree R ?correlative value of posterior error C and microerror probability P , show that the GM model of grey system theory for strong earthquake in the region of northern segments of South-North Seismic Belt and its adjacent area is reliable and accurate. Therefore the application of grey system theory is feasible and reasonable for the earthquake prediction .

引文

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