中国“代”尺度气候预测(英)
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摘要
将子波分析技术与随机动力学相结合,提出了突变点数建模代尺度气候预测新技术—突变点数建模技术,并将该技术应用于中国不同地区代尺度的干湿驰豫时间的预报。研究结果表明,在代尺度上,我国北方、西南和东南气候灾害频繁,南方多涝,西北和北方(不包括东北)则多旱。由于该技术是关于时间序列建模的,故可以应用到水文、地震、生态等领域有关的建模和预测。
Described is a new technique of decade-scale climatic forecasting, presented by a combination of wavelet analysis and stochastic dynamics. The technique is also applied to diagnosing and forecasting the duration time of dry and wet climates in the decadal hierarchy of different areas in China. Results show that in the decadal hierarchy, the north, southwest, and southeast of China are areas where various kinds of frequent climate disasters appear; droughts easily occur in the north and northwest, while floods often occur in South China. Because this modeling technique is based on time series data, it can also be applied in the modeling and forecasting of such time series as hydrology, earthquakes and ecology.
Described is a new technique of decade-scale climatic forecasting, presented by a combination of wavelet analysis and stochastic dynamics. The technique is also applied to diagnosing and forecasting the duration time of dry and wet climates in the decadal hierarchy of different areas in China. Results show that in the decadal hierarchy, the north, southwest, and southeast of China are areas where various kinds of frequent climate disasters appear; droughts easily occur in the north and northwest, while floods often occur in South China. Because this modeling technique is based on time series data, it can also be applied in the modeling and forecasting of such time series as hydrology, earthquakes and ecology.
引文
Fraedrich, K., 1978: Structure and stochastic analysis of a zero-dimensional climate system. Quart. J Roy. Meteor. Soc., 104, 461-474．
Hasselman, K., 1977: Stochastic climate models Part 1． Tellus, 28, 473-484．
Kim, K. Y., and G. North, 1991: Surface temperature fluctuation in a stochastic climate model. J. Geophys.Res., 96, 18473-18480．
Kominz, M. A., and N. G. Pisias, 1979: Pleistocene climate: Determinstic or stochastic? Science, 204, 171-173．
Lin Zhenshan, 1993: The Model of Phase Space of Long-term Forecast, China Meteorological Press, China Meteorological Press, Beijing, 155pp. (in Chinese)
Lin Zhenshan, 1999: The Technique of Wavelet Climatic Diagnoses, Beijing, 174pp. (in Chinese)
Mayer, Y., 1992: Wavelet and Operator.Press of World Corporation, Beijing, 275pp.
Nicolis, C., 1982: Stochastic aspects of climate transitions-Response to a periodic forcing. Tellus, 34, 1-9．
Singh, C. V., R. S. Adhikari, and H, P. Garg, 2002: Analysis of the statistical behaviour of daily maximum and monthly rainfull data at New Delhi during monsoon.Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 19, 425-432．
Yamamoto, R., T. Iwashima, and N. K., Sanga, 1985: Climate jump-A hypothesis in climate diagnosis. J.Meteor. Soc. Japan, 63, 1157-1160．
Yamamoto, R., T. Iwashima, N. K. Sanga, and M. Hoshiai,1986: An analysis of climatic jump. J. Meteor. Soc.Japan, 64, 273-281．
Zhang Qin, Zhu Yufeng, and Ni Yunqi, 1995: QBO features of tropical Pacific wind stress field with the relation to El Nio. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 12(1) ,87-94．
Zhu Yanfeng, and Chen Longxun, 2002: The relationship between the Asian/Australian Monsoon and ENSO on a quasi four-year scale. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 19(4) , 727-740．
Hasselman, K., 1977: Stochastic climate models Part 1． Tellus, 28, 473-484．
Kim, K. Y., and G. North, 1991: Surface temperature fluctuation in a stochastic climate model. J. Geophys.Res., 96, 18473-18480．
Kominz, M. A., and N. G. Pisias, 1979: Pleistocene climate: Determinstic or stochastic? Science, 204, 171-173．
Lin Zhenshan, 1993: The Model of Phase Space of Long-term Forecast, China Meteorological Press, China Meteorological Press, Beijing, 155pp. (in Chinese)
Lin Zhenshan, 1999: The Technique of Wavelet Climatic Diagnoses, Beijing, 174pp. (in Chinese)
Mayer, Y., 1992: Wavelet and Operator.Press of World Corporation, Beijing, 275pp.
Nicolis, C., 1982: Stochastic aspects of climate transitions-Response to a periodic forcing. Tellus, 34, 1-9．
Singh, C. V., R. S. Adhikari, and H, P. Garg, 2002: Analysis of the statistical behaviour of daily maximum and monthly rainfull data at New Delhi during monsoon.Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 19, 425-432．
Yamamoto, R., T. Iwashima, and N. K., Sanga, 1985: Climate jump-A hypothesis in climate diagnosis. J.Meteor. Soc. Japan, 63, 1157-1160．
Yamamoto, R., T. Iwashima, N. K. Sanga, and M. Hoshiai,1986: An analysis of climatic jump. J. Meteor. Soc.Japan, 64, 273-281．
Zhang Qin, Zhu Yufeng, and Ni Yunqi, 1995: QBO features of tropical Pacific wind stress field with the relation to El Nio. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 12(1) ,87-94．
Zhu Yanfeng, and Chen Longxun, 2002: The relationship between the Asian/Australian Monsoon and ENSO on a quasi four-year scale. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 19(4) , 727-740．
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