综合风险评估的一个基本模式
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摘要
从分析中英文"风险"一词的差异入手,从"风险"由"风"和"险"两个字构成,风险为一个综合概念出发,引入了一个一般性的风险定义,"风险是与某种不利事件有关的一种未来情景".通常的综合风险评估,并非是对"综合风险"进行评估,而是指以组合手段对风险进行评估.本文将多因素决定的风险称为综合风险,并将其分为"伪风险"、"概率风险"、"模糊风险"和"不确定风险"4类,而且归纳出评估"概率风险"和"模糊风险"的基本原理和形式化基本模式.本文梳理出来的相关概念和基本模式,不仅高度概括,使其涵盖了现有的概念和模式,而且意义明确,便于风险勾通和交流.本文给出两个简单算例,说明了基本模式既适用于简单的洪水风险评估,也适于复杂的地震灾害模糊风险评估.
Reviewing the difference between Chinese and English in word"risk",and the fact that, risk in Chinese was a synthetic concept which consists of two characters:"feng"and"xian", the former means"wind",and the latter"danger",we introduced a general risk definition:Risk was a scene in the future associated with some adverse incident.The existing concept of integrated risk assessment is not to assess"integrated risk",but the holistic approach serving for the risk assessment.In this paper,any risk determined by more than one factor is called integrated risk.We have a new category of risk:pseudo risk,probability risk,fuzzy risk and uncertain risk.We suggest a basic principle and a basic model to assess probability risk and fuzzy risk.The concept and model given in this paper are not only highly generalizing so that they cove the most of the existing concepts and models in risk issues,but also their meanings are very clear being easy to risk communication.Two calculation cases in this paper show that, the basic model is not only suitable for assessing simple flood risk,but also suitable complex earthquake fuzzy risk.
Reviewing the difference between Chinese and English in word"risk",and the fact that, risk in Chinese was a synthetic concept which consists of two characters:"feng"and"xian", the former means"wind",and the latter"danger",we introduced a general risk definition:Risk was a scene in the future associated with some adverse incident.The existing concept of integrated risk assessment is not to assess"integrated risk",but the holistic approach serving for the risk assessment.In this paper,any risk determined by more than one factor is called integrated risk.We have a new category of risk:pseudo risk,probability risk,fuzzy risk and uncertain risk.We suggest a basic principle and a basic model to assess probability risk and fuzzy risk.The concept and model given in this paper are not only highly generalizing so that they cove the most of the existing concepts and models in risk issues,but also their meanings are very clear being easy to risk communication.Two calculation cases in this paper show that, the basic model is not only suitable for assessing simple flood risk,but also suitable complex earthquake fuzzy risk.
引文
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[2]Hardy C C.Wildland fire hazard and risk:problems,definitions,and context[J].Forest Ecology and Management, 2005,211(1-2):73-82
[3]http://www.ehs.unu.edu/moodle/mod/glossary/view,php?id=1
[4]胡锦涛．高举中国特色社会主义伟大旗帜，为夺取全面建设小康社会新胜利而奋斗(在中国共产党第十七次全国代表大会上的报告)[C]．中国共产党第十七次全国代表大会文件汇编．北京：人民出版社，2007 Hu Jintao.Hold high the great banner of socialism with Chinese characteristics and strive for new victories in building a moderately prosperous society in all tespects[C].Documents of the Seventeenth National Congress of the Communist Party of China.Beijing:People's Publishing House,2007
[5]Huang C F,The basic principle of integrated risk assessment[C].Proceedings of the First International Conference on Risk Analysis and Crisis Response.Paris:Atlantis Press,2007:1-6
[6]Huss W R,Honton E J.Scenario Planning——What Style Should you use?[J].Long Range Planning,1987,20(4): 21-29
[7]Smith K,Environmental hazards:Assessing risk and reducing disaster(2nd edition)[M].New York:Routledge,1996
[8]Zadeh L A.Fuzzy sets[J].Information and Control,1965,8(3):338-353
[9]Adrian G.Integrated risk and vulnerability assessment and management assisted by decision support systems[M]. Dordrecht:Springer,2005
[10]Fedra K.Integrated risk assessment and management:overview and state of the art[J].Jonrnal of Hazardous Materials, 1998,61(1-3):5-22
[11]Starr C.Risk and risk acceptance by society[R].Electric Power Res.Inst.,Palo Alto,CA,1977
[12]International Risk Governance Council(IRGC).Risk governance-towards an integrative approach[R].IRGC White Paper No.1,2005
[13]黄崇福．自然灾害风险分析的信息矩阵方法[J]．自然灾害学报，2006，15(1)：1-10 Huang Chongfu.Information matrix method for risk analysis of natural disaster[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2006, 15(1):1-10
[14]Moore M N.Do nanoparticles present ecotoxicological risks for the health of the aquatic environment?[J]Environment International,2006,32(8):967-976
[15]Huang C F.Fuzzy risk assessment of urban natural hazards[J].Fuzzy Sets and Systems,1996,83(2):271-282
[16]Huang C F,Shi Y.Towards efficient fuzzy information processing-using the principle of information diffusion[M]. Heidelberg:Physica-Verlag,2002
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