加卸载响应比理论用于矿震预测的初步研究
|
摘要
加卸载响应比(LURR)理论是一种前景很好的中期地震预测方法,通常在强烈地震发生前的数月至1～2年LURR出现高值,因而LURR可以作为强烈天然地震的前兆,用此方法曾经成功地预测过Northridge地震(1994年1月17日,M6.7,美国加州),Kanto地震(1996年9月11日,M6.6,日本)及不少发生在中国的天然地震。用房山煤矿1992年8月至1993年7月的微震资料,计算了全年内7组M>2.1矿震前的加卸载响应比Y值,其中5组矿震前Y值均明显大于1(Y≥2.9)。以上结果表明,加卸载响应比理论有可能用于矿震的预测。
The LURR (Loading-Unloading Response Ratio) is an intermediate-term earthquake prediction approach that has shown considerable promise. High LUGG value usually could be observed prior to strong earthquakes several moths to a year or two so that it could be served as an indicator of strong natural earthquakes. In terms of LURR several earthquakes such as Northridge earthquake (1994-1-17, M6.7, California, USA), Kanto earthquake (1996-9-11, M6.6, Japan) and some earthquakes occurred in China have been successfully predicted. The variation of LURR has been calculated using the seismic data of Fangshan Coal Mine during the period from August 1992 to July 1993. There were 7 groups of mining induced earthquakes with magnitude equal to or larger than 2.1, the values of LURR were significantly larger than 1 (LURR≥2.9) prior to 5 groups among the 7 groups. These results suggest that LURR could be served as a precursor to predict the mining induced earthquake.
The LURR (Loading-Unloading Response Ratio) is an intermediate-term earthquake prediction approach that has shown considerable promise. High LUGG value usually could be observed prior to strong earthquakes several moths to a year or two so that it could be served as an indicator of strong natural earthquakes. In terms of LURR several earthquakes such as Northridge earthquake (1994-1-17, M6.7, California, USA), Kanto earthquake (1996-9-11, M6.6, Japan) and some earthquakes occurred in China have been successfully predicted. The variation of LURR has been calculated using the seismic data of Fangshan Coal Mine during the period from August 1992 to July 1993. There were 7 groups of mining induced earthquakes with magnitude equal to or larger than 2.1, the values of LURR were significantly larger than 1 (LURR≥2.9) prior to 5 groups among the 7 groups. These results suggest that LURR could be served as a precursor to predict the mining induced earthquake.
引文
[1] 尹祥础,尹灿.非线性系统的失稳前兆与地震预报[J].中国科学,1991,(5):512 518.
[2] 李宣瑚."八五"地震预报理论及方法攻关新进展之一加卸载响应比理论预测洛杉矶地震获得成功[J].国际地震动态,1994,4(184):24 25.
[3] 尹祥础,陈学忠,宋治平,等.加卸载响应比理论(LURR)一种新的地震预报方法[J].地球物理学报,1994,37(6):767 775.
[4] ИинКсянчу(Xiang chuYIN).НовыйПодходкПрогногуЗемлетрясений[J].ПРИРОДА,1993,(1):20 27.
[5] Xiang chuYIN,Xue ZhongChen,Zhi PingSong,etal.TheLoad UnloadResponseRatioTheoryanditsApplicationtoEarthquakePredictionPrediction[J].JournalofEarthquakePredictionResearch,1994,(3):325 333.
[6] Xiang chuYIN,CanYin,Xue ZhongChen.ThePrecursorofInstabilityforNonlinearSystemandItsApplicationtoEarthquakePrediction theload UnloadResponseRatioTheory,"Non lineardynamicsandpredictabilityofgeophysicalphenomena"[J].(eds,W.I.Naman,Gabrelov,A.M.,andTurcotte,D.L.),AGUGeophysicalMonograph,1994,(83):55 60.
[7] Xiang chuYIN,Xue zhongCHEN,Zhi pingSONG,etal.NewApproachtoEarthquakePredictionTheLoad/UnloadResponseRatio(LURR)Theory[J].PAGEOPH,1995,145,(3/4):701 715.
[8] Xiang chuYIN,YucangWANG,KeyinPANG,etal.DevelopmentofaNewApproachtoEarthquakePrediction Load/unloadResponseRatio(LURR)Theory[J].PureApplGeophys,2000,157:23652383.
[9] YinXC,MoraP,PengKY,etal.Load UnloadResponseRatioandAcceleratingMoment/EnergyRelease[J].CriticalRegionScalingandEarthquakePredictionPureApplGeophys,2002,159:25112524.
[10] MoraP,WangY,YinC,etal.Simulationofload-unloadResponseRatioandcriticalSensitivityinthelatticeSolidModel[J].PureApplGeophys,2002,159:2525 2536.
[11] 陈学忠,尹祥础.非线性科学在地震研究中的一些用[J].地球物理学进展,1994,9(1):100 109.
[12] 许强,黄润秋.用加卸载响应比理论探讨斜坡失稳前兆[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,1995,6(2):112-119.
[13] 黄润秋,许强.工程地质广义系统科学分析原理及应用[M].北京:地质出版社,1995.125 131.
[14] 张兆平,张少泉,关杰,等.矿井微震与冲击地压危险评价研究[J].中国地震,1988,4(2):123124.
[15] 张少泉.矿山冲击的地震学研究与开发[J].中国地震,1993,9(1):1 8.
[16] 胡毓良.诱发地震[J].国际地震动态,1994,(6):37 38.
[17] McgarrA,SimpsonD.Abroadlookatinducedandtriggeredseismicity[A].inRockburstsandSeismicityinMines[C].editedbyLasockiS,CibowiczS,balkemaAA.Rotterdam,1997.385 396.
[18] OuillonG,SornetteD.Theconceptof"criticalearthquakes"appliedtominerockburstswithtime to failureanalysis[J].GeophysJInt,2000,143:450 468.
[19] 刘万琴,赵明,郑治真.公里尺度地震预报的实验研究[J].中国地球物理学会年刊,1994,(年刊):122 123.
[20] 陈棋福,尹祥础,马丽.加卸载响应比的自然概率分布[J].中国地震1996,12(3):269 274.
[21] 庄建仓,尹祥础.加卸载响应比在Poisson模型下的随机分布[J].中国地震,1999,15(1):128138.
[22] 王海涛,彭克银,庄建仓,等.样本条件对加卸载响应比计算结果的影响分析[J].地震,1999,19(3):223 229.
[23] 刘桂萍,马丽,尹祥础.首都圈地区中等地震前响应比特征的研究[J].地震,1994,14(6):34 39.
[2] 李宣瑚."八五"地震预报理论及方法攻关新进展之一加卸载响应比理论预测洛杉矶地震获得成功[J].国际地震动态,1994,4(184):24 25.
[3] 尹祥础,陈学忠,宋治平,等.加卸载响应比理论(LURR)一种新的地震预报方法[J].地球物理学报,1994,37(6):767 775.
[4] ИинКсянчу(Xiang chuYIN).НовыйПодходкПрогногуЗемлетрясений[J].ПРИРОДА,1993,(1):20 27.
[5] Xiang chuYIN,Xue ZhongChen,Zhi PingSong,etal.TheLoad UnloadResponseRatioTheoryanditsApplicationtoEarthquakePredictionPrediction[J].JournalofEarthquakePredictionResearch,1994,(3):325 333.
[6] Xiang chuYIN,CanYin,Xue ZhongChen.ThePrecursorofInstabilityforNonlinearSystemandItsApplicationtoEarthquakePrediction theload UnloadResponseRatioTheory,"Non lineardynamicsandpredictabilityofgeophysicalphenomena"[J].(eds,W.I.Naman,Gabrelov,A.M.,andTurcotte,D.L.),AGUGeophysicalMonograph,1994,(83):55 60.
[7] Xiang chuYIN,Xue zhongCHEN,Zhi pingSONG,etal.NewApproachtoEarthquakePredictionTheLoad/UnloadResponseRatio(LURR)Theory[J].PAGEOPH,1995,145,(3/4):701 715.
[8] Xiang chuYIN,YucangWANG,KeyinPANG,etal.DevelopmentofaNewApproachtoEarthquakePrediction Load/unloadResponseRatio(LURR)Theory[J].PureApplGeophys,2000,157:23652383.
[9] YinXC,MoraP,PengKY,etal.Load UnloadResponseRatioandAcceleratingMoment/EnergyRelease[J].CriticalRegionScalingandEarthquakePredictionPureApplGeophys,2002,159:25112524.
[10] MoraP,WangY,YinC,etal.Simulationofload-unloadResponseRatioandcriticalSensitivityinthelatticeSolidModel[J].PureApplGeophys,2002,159:2525 2536.
[11] 陈学忠,尹祥础.非线性科学在地震研究中的一些用[J].地球物理学进展,1994,9(1):100 109.
[12] 许强,黄润秋.用加卸载响应比理论探讨斜坡失稳前兆[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,1995,6(2):112-119.
[13] 黄润秋,许强.工程地质广义系统科学分析原理及应用[M].北京:地质出版社,1995.125 131.
[14] 张兆平,张少泉,关杰,等.矿井微震与冲击地压危险评价研究[J].中国地震,1988,4(2):123124.
[15] 张少泉.矿山冲击的地震学研究与开发[J].中国地震,1993,9(1):1 8.
[16] 胡毓良.诱发地震[J].国际地震动态,1994,(6):37 38.
[17] McgarrA,SimpsonD.Abroadlookatinducedandtriggeredseismicity[A].inRockburstsandSeismicityinMines[C].editedbyLasockiS,CibowiczS,balkemaAA.Rotterdam,1997.385 396.
[18] OuillonG,SornetteD.Theconceptof"criticalearthquakes"appliedtominerockburstswithtime to failureanalysis[J].GeophysJInt,2000,143:450 468.
[19] 刘万琴,赵明,郑治真.公里尺度地震预报的实验研究[J].中国地球物理学会年刊,1994,(年刊):122 123.
[20] 陈棋福,尹祥础,马丽.加卸载响应比的自然概率分布[J].中国地震1996,12(3):269 274.
[21] 庄建仓,尹祥础.加卸载响应比在Poisson模型下的随机分布[J].中国地震,1999,15(1):128138.
[22] 王海涛,彭克银,庄建仓,等.样本条件对加卸载响应比计算结果的影响分析[J].地震,1999,19(3):223 229.
[23] 刘桂萍,马丽,尹祥础.首都圈地区中等地震前响应比特征的研究[J].地震,1994,14(6):34 39.
版权所有：© 2023 中国地质图书馆 中国地质调查局地学文献中心