北天山重点监视区地下流体临震前兆标志探讨
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摘要
在“八五”短临预报和“九五”中短期(1 年尺度)前兆研究的基础上,运用整点值、日测值、原始曲线法、一阶差分法和日极差法,系统地分析了北天山1985 年以来的地下流体前兆观测资料,研究了在此期间控制区范围内发生的7 次MS5.0 级以上中强地震前临震异常显示特征,探索了中强地震发生前地下流体临震前兆标志。表明只要正确地识别地震前兆的中长期向中短期、短期、临震前兆过渡的标志,并进行短临跟踪,是可以实现临震预报的。
The observational data of underground fluid precursors in North Tianshan since 1985 are analysed systematically using o'clock values,daily mean values,first order difference values and daily maximum difference values based on the studies on short term and impending earthquake prediction in the 8th five year program and medium ,short term precursor in the 9th five year program.The impending earthquake anomalies before 7 M\-S≥5.0 earthquakes occurred in the monitoring area are studied and the impending earthquake precursor indexes of underground fluid are gotten.
The observational data of underground fluid precursors in North Tianshan since 1985 are analysed systematically using o'clock values,daily mean values,first order difference values and daily maximum difference values based on the studies on short term and impending earthquake prediction in the 8th five year program and medium ,short term precursor in the 9th five year program.The impending earthquake anomalies before 7 M\-S≥5.0 earthquakes occurred in the monitoring area are studied and the impending earthquake precursor indexes of underground fluid are gotten.
引文
1 朱令人.能量预释放——试论短临突发前兆的物理本质.见:新疆维吾尔自治区地震局.新疆地震研究文集(第Ⅰ集).北京:地震出版社,1995.
2 冯绚敏,叶秀薇,任明甫.地下流体短临地震信息的特殊意义.华南地震,1998,18(1):111～112.
3 许秋龙,卢静芳.新疆北天山地区中短期前兆标志探索.内陆地震,1999,13(2):153～160.
4 王道,张元胜.天山重点监视区地下流体动态地震短期前兆标志体系的研究.内陆地震,1997,11(2):113～160.
5 卢静芳,许秋龙,张洪斌等.日极差法在识别水位异常动态中的应用.内陆地震,1999,13(1):64～65.
2 冯绚敏,叶秀薇,任明甫.地下流体短临地震信息的特殊意义.华南地震,1998,18(1):111～112.
3 许秋龙,卢静芳.新疆北天山地区中短期前兆标志探索.内陆地震,1999,13(2):153～160.
4 王道,张元胜.天山重点监视区地下流体动态地震短期前兆标志体系的研究.内陆地震,1997,11(2):113～160.
5 卢静芳,许秋龙,张洪斌等.日极差法在识别水位异常动态中的应用.内陆地震,1999,13(1):64～65.
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