河套带、汾渭带中等地震活动平静对中强地震的指示意义
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摘要
以相邻2次地震的时间间隔作为统计量,对河套带、汾渭带1976年以来的地震活动平静异常进行了统计检验。结果表明河套带、特别是汾渭带中强地震之前大范围内中等地震活动的异常平静现象是明显的,河套带、张渤带发生的5次6级以上强震有4次发生在平静异常结束或在平静过程中。目前该区域中等地震平静时间已远远超过历史统计的最长时间间隔,未来一段时间河套带、张渤带及邻区存在发生强震的可能性。
The interval days between two earthquakes in the Hetao and Fenwei seismic belts are statistical analyzed. The result shows that there were obvious moderate seismic activity quiet phenomena before strong earthquakes in large range in two belts,especially in Fenwei belt. Among 5 MS≥6.0 earthquakes since 1976,4 events occurred at the end of the seismicity abnormal quiet period or in the quiet course. Now the moderate seismicity quiet time has surpassed the biggest time interval in history record,so there is possibility of strong earthquake in Hetao belt and Zhangbo belt in future.
The interval days between two earthquakes in the Hetao and Fenwei seismic belts are statistical analyzed. The result shows that there were obvious moderate seismic activity quiet phenomena before strong earthquakes in large range in two belts,especially in Fenwei belt. Among 5 MS≥6.0 earthquakes since 1976,4 events occurred at the end of the seismicity abnormal quiet period or in the quiet course. Now the moderate seismicity quiet time has surpassed the biggest time interval in history record,so there is possibility of strong earthquake in Hetao belt and Zhangbo belt in future.
引文
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[2]Wyss M,Habermann R E.Precursory seismic quiescence[J]Pageoph,1998,126(2):319-332.
[3]Wyss M,Shirnazaki K,Urabe T.Quantitative mapping of a precursory seismic quiescence tothe Izu-Oshi ma1990(M6.5)earthquake,Japan[J].Geophys.J.Int.,1996,127:735-743.
[4]Katsumata K,Kasahara.Precursory seismic quiescence before the1994Kurile earthquake(Mw=8.3)revealed by three inde-pendent seismic catalogs[J].Pure and Applied Geophysics,1999,155(2-4):443-470.
[5]Huang Q,Oncel A O,Sobolev G A.Precursory seismicity changes associated with theMw=7.41999August,2002.17Izmit(Turkey)earthquake[J].Geophysical Journal Interna-tional,2002,151:235-242.
[6]Huang Q,Sobolev G A,Nagao T.Characteristics of the seis-mic quiescence and activation patterns before theM=7.2Kobe earthquake,Jahuary17,1995[J].Tectonophysics,2001:337,99-116.
[7]Di Giovambattista R,Tyupkin Y.Seismicity patterns before theM=5.82002,alermo(Italy)earthquake:seismic quiescence and accelerating seismicity[J].Tectonophysics,2004,384(1-4):243-255.
[8]Mogi.Earthquake Prediction[M].Tokyo:Academic Press,1985.
[9]Scholz C H.Mechanisms of seismic quiescences[J].Pure Appl.Geophys.,1988,126:701-718.
[10]邓起东,程绍平,闵伟,等.鄂尔多斯块体新生代构造活动和动力学的讨论[J].地质力学学报,1999,5(3):13-21.
[11]陈立德.丽江7.0级地震短临异常特征及震源硬化模型[J].地震,1998,18(1):7-13.
[12]马胜利,蒋海昆,扈小燕,等.基于声发射实验结果讨论大震前地震活动平静现象的机制[J].地震地质,2004,29(4):426-435.
[13]蒋海昆,马胜利,张流,等.雁列式断层组合变形过程中的声发射特征[J].2002,地震学报,24(4):385-396.
[14]王林瑛,陈佩燕,林碧苍.昆仑山口西8.1级地震前的地震活动异常及预测意义的讨论[J].西北地震学报,2003,25(1):22-27.
[15]高立新,刘芳,赵蒙生,等.用sPn震相计算震源深度的初步分析与应用[J].西北地震学报,2007,29(3):213-217.
[16]高立新,郑斯华,丁风和.内蒙古中西部地区震源参数和场地响应反演[J].西北地震学报,2005,27(2):109-114.
[17]高立新,曹井泉.强震前震中区附近地震学参数中期震兆标志研究[J].西北地震学报,2004,26(4):347-352.
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