形变大地测量学的进展、问题与地震预报
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摘要
简要概括了形变大地测量学的革命性进展 ,研讨了它的科学特色、功能和定义以及对地球科学和防灾减灾的推动。形变大地测量学有助于从根本上击破多年来制约地震预报的“瓶颈” ,但也存在不少急待解决的问题。着重研讨了在 2 1世纪前 10年 ,形变大地测量学如何依托多年的学科积累并充分受益于人造卫星和数字化等新技术 ,开展创新性研究和试验以推进地震预报。为此 ,对当前的研究工作提出了 12条科学技术途径。最后对学科名称提出了建议。
This paper briefly summarizes the revolutionary advances of Deformation Geodesy, discusses its scientific definition, characteristics, function and promotion of geosciences with reduction and prevention of natural disasters. Deformation Geodesy could be helpful that the “bottle neck”restricting of earthquake prediction over a long time can be broken up basically,but there are many problems needed to be solved. The problems in the first decade of 21st century, how to develop the innovational research and practice of Deformation Geodesy in order to carry forward and benefit sufficiently the earthquake prediction, on the basis of the learning accumulation for many years and from new technology such as as satellite and the digitization techniques, are discussed emphatically. For this purpose the twelve scientific and technical ways from available study results are given. At last the subject name as Deformation Geodesy is suggested.
This paper briefly summarizes the revolutionary advances of Deformation Geodesy, discusses its scientific definition, characteristics, function and promotion of geosciences with reduction and prevention of natural disasters. Deformation Geodesy could be helpful that the “bottle neck”restricting of earthquake prediction over a long time can be broken up basically,but there are many problems needed to be solved. The problems in the first decade of 21st century, how to develop the innovational research and practice of Deformation Geodesy in order to carry forward and benefit sufficiently the earthquake prediction, on the basis of the learning accumulation for many years and from new technology such as as satellite and the digitization techniques, are discussed emphatically. For this purpose the twelve scientific and technical ways from available study results are given. At last the subject name as Deformation Geodesy is suggested.
引文
1 王之卓.当代测绘科学的发展[J].测绘学报,1998,27(4):283～286.
1 WangZhizhuo.Developmentofsurveyingandmapping[J].ActaGeosaeticaetCartographicaSinica,1998,27(4):283-286.(inChinese)
2 陈俊勇,许厚泽,胡建国,等.23届IUGG大会有关大地测量的最新进展[J].测绘学报,2004,23(1):12-21.
2 ChenJunyong,XuHouze,HuJianguo,etal.Thelatestad vancesingeodesyreportedinthe23rdgeneralassemblyofI UGG[J].ActaGeodaeticaetCartographicaSinica,2004,33(1):12-21.(inChinese)
3 胡明城.现代大地测量学的理论及其应用[M ].北京:测绘出版社,2003.
3 HuMingcheng.Thetheoryandapplicationofcontemporarygeodesy[M ].Beijing:PublishingHouseofSurveyingandMapping,2003.(InChinese)
4 孙文科.低轨道人造卫星(CHAMP、GRACE、GOCE)与高精度地球重力场—卫星重力大地测量的最新发展及其对地球科学的重大影响[J].大地测量与地球动力学,2002,21(1):92～100.
4 SunWenke.Satelliteinloworbit(CHAMP ,GRACE ,GOCE)andhighprecisionearthgravityfield:thelatestprogressofsatellitegravitygeodesyanditsgreatinfluenceongeosciences[J].JournalofGeodesyandGeodynamics,2002,22(1):92-100.(inChinese)
5 周硕愚,吴云,李正媛,等.地壳形变测量学之进展与展望[J].大地测量与地球动力学,2002,22(3):94～101.
5 ZhouShuoyu,WuYun,LiZhengyuan,etal.Advanceandprospectofcrustaldeformationgeodesy[J].JournalofGeodesyandGeodynamics,2002,22(3):94-101.(inChinese)
6 NASASESWG .Solidearthscienceworkinggroupreport—Livingonarestlessplanet.Website:http://solidearth.jp.nass.gov.2002
7 周硕愚,吴云.NASA未来25年固体地球科学规划及其启示[J].大地测量与地球动力学,2003,23(2):117～121.
7 ZhouShuoyuandWuYun.SolidearthscienceprogramofNASAincoming25 yearsanditsinspiration[J].JournalofGeodesyandGeodynamics,2003,23(2):117-121.(inChinese)
8 周硕愚.系统科学导引[M].北京:地震出版社,1988.
8 ZhouShuoyu.Introductionofsystemscience[M ].Beijing:SeismologicalPress,1988.(inChinese)
9 毕思文,许强文.地球系统科学[M].北京:科学出版社,2003.
9 BiSiwenandXuQiangwen.Systemsscienceoftheearth.Beijing:SciencePress,2003.(InChinese)
10 周硕愚.走向21世纪的地壳形变学—对大陆动力学与地震预测的新推动[J].地壳形变与地震,1999,19(1):1～13.
10 ZhouShuoyu.Crustaldeformationadvancingtowards21thcentury:anewimpetustocontinentaldynamicsandearth quake prediction[J].CrustalDeformationandEarth quake,1999,19(1):1-13.(inChinese)
11 刘启元,吴建春.论地震数值预报—关于我国地震预报研究发展战略的思考[J].地学前缘,2003,10(增刊):217～224.
11 LiuQiyuanandWuJianchun.Onnumericalforecastofearthquakes—thinkingaboutthestrategyforpromotingearthquakeprediction[J].EarthScienceFrontiers.2003,10(supp.):217-224.(inChinese)
12 叶叔华总编,朱文耀、魏子卿主编.现代地壳运动的空间测量技术及数据处理方法研究[M ].上海:上海科学技术出版社,2002.
12 YeShuhua(managingeditor),ZhuWenyao,WeiZiqing(editorsinchief).Studyonspacegeodetictechniquesmonitoringcrustalmotionanddataprocessing[M].Shang hai:ShanghaiPublishingHouseofScienceandTechnolo gy,2002.(inChinese)
13 牛之俊,马宗晋,陈鑫连,等.中国地壳运动观测网络[J].大地测量与地球动力学,2002,22(3):88～93.
13 NiuZhijun,Mazongjin,ChenXinlian,etal.CrustalmovementobservationnetworkofChina[J].JournalofGeodesyandGeodynamics,2002,22(3):88-93.(inChinese)
14 李正媛,陈志遥,陈鹏,等.中国地震局形变台网数据中心的系统构成[J].大地测量与地球动力学,2002,22(3):66～68.
14 LiZhengyuan,ChenZhiyao,ChenPeng,etal.SystemcompositionofdatacenterofcrustaldeformationstationnetworkofChinaSeismologicalBureau[J].JournalofGeodesyandGeodynamics,2002,22(3):66-68.(inChinese)
15 周硕愚,张跃刚,丁国瑜,等.依据GPS数据建立中国大陆板内块体现时运动模型的研究[J].地震学报,1998,20(4):374～355.
15 ZhouShuoyu,ZhangYuegang,DingGuoyu,etal.Apre liminaryresearchestablishingthepresent-timeintraplateblockmovementmodelontheChinamainlandbasedonGPSdata[J].ActaSeismologicaSinica,1998,11(4):403-412.(inChinese)
16 吴云,帅平,周硕愚,等.用GPS观测结果对中国大陆及邻区现今地壳运动和变形的初步探索[J].地震学报,1999,21(5):545～553.
16 WuYun,ShuaiPing,ZhouShuoyu,etal.CurrentcrustalmotionanddeformationintheChinacontinentanditssur roundingareadeterminedfromGPSdata[J].ActaSeismo logicaSinica,1999,21(5):545-553.(inChinese)
17 周硕愚,帅平,等.中国大陆及其东南沿海现时地壳运动[J].自然科学进展,2000,10(3):273～277.
17 ZhouShuoyu,ShuaiPing,etal.Present daycrustalmove mentinChinacontinentanditssoutheastregion[J].ProgressinNaturalScience,2000,10(3):273-277.(inChinese)
18 WangQ ,ZhangPZ ,FreymuellerJT ,etal.Present daycrustaldeformationinChinaconstrainedbyglobalposition ingsystemmeasurements[J].Science,2001,294:574-577.
19 江在森,张希,崔笃信,等.青藏块体东北缘近期水平运动与变形[J].地球物理学报,2001,44(5):636～644.
19 JiangZaisen,ZhangXi,CuiDuxin,etal.Recenthorizon talmovementanddeformationinthenortheastmarginofQinghai-Tibetblock[J].ChineseJournalofGeophysics,2001,44(5):636-644.(InChinese)
20 朱文耀,王小亚,符养,等.基于ITRF2000的全球板块运动模型和中国的地形变[J],地球物理学报,2002,45(增刊):197～204.
20 ZhuWenyao,WangXiaoya,FuYang,etal.GlobalplatemotionfromITRF2000andcrustaldeformationaroundChina[J].ChineseJournalofGeophysics,2001,45(supp.):197-204.(InChinese)
21 李延兴,李智,张静华,等.中国大陆及周边地区的水平应变场[J].地球物理学报,2004,47(2):222～231.
21 LiYanxing,LiZhi,ZhangJinghua,etal.HorizontalstrainfieldintheChinesemainlandanditssurroundingareas[J].ChineseJournalofGeophysics,2004,47(2):222-231.(inChinese)
22 叶叔华总编,赖锡安、刘经南主编.中国大陆主要活动带现今地壳运动及动力学研究[M ].北京:地震出版社,2001.
22 YeShuhua(managingeditor),LaiXi’an,LiuJingnan(edi torinchief).Studyonpresent daycrustalmotionandgeo dynamicsofthemainactivezonesofChinamainland[M ].Beijing:SeismologicalPress,2001.(inChinese)
23 周硕愚,施顺英,吴云,等.强震前后地壳形变场动力学图像及其参量特征研究[J].地震学报,1998,20(1):41～47.
23 ZhouShuoyu,ShiShunying,WuYun,etal.Researchondynamicspatterncharactersofcrustaldeformationfieldbe foreandafterstrongearthquake[J].ActaSeismologicaSinica,1998,11(1):49-57.(inChinese)
24 申重阳,王琪,吴云,等.川滇菱形块体主要边界带运动模型的GPS数据反演分析[J].地球物理学报,2002,45(3):352～361.
24 ShenChongyang,WangQi,WuYun,etal.GPSinversionofkinematicmodelofthemainboundariesoftheRhombusBlockinSichuanandYunnan[J].ChineseJournalofGeo physics,2002,45(3):352-361.(inChinese)
25 邢灿飞,龚凯虹,杜瑞林.长江三峡工程地壳形变监测网络[J].大地测量与地球动力学,2003,23(1):114～118.
25 XingChanfei,GongKaihongandDuRuilin.Crustalde formationmonitoringnetworkforThreeGorgesprojectonYangtzeRiver[J].JournalofGeodesyandGeodynamics,2002,23(1):114-118.(inChinese)
26 杜瑞林,乔学军,邢灿飞,等.三峡二期工程蓄水后的垂直形变场[J].大地测量与地球动力学,2004,24(1):41～45.
26 DuRuilin,QiaoXuejun,XingChanfei,etal.Verticalde formationafterfirstimpoundmentofThreeGorgesproject[J].JournalofGeodesyandGeodynamics,2004,24(1):41-45.(inChinese)
1 WangZhizhuo.Developmentofsurveyingandmapping[J].ActaGeosaeticaetCartographicaSinica,1998,27(4):283-286.(inChinese)
2 陈俊勇,许厚泽,胡建国,等.23届IUGG大会有关大地测量的最新进展[J].测绘学报,2004,23(1):12-21.
2 ChenJunyong,XuHouze,HuJianguo,etal.Thelatestad vancesingeodesyreportedinthe23rdgeneralassemblyofI UGG[J].ActaGeodaeticaetCartographicaSinica,2004,33(1):12-21.(inChinese)
3 胡明城.现代大地测量学的理论及其应用[M ].北京:测绘出版社,2003.
3 HuMingcheng.Thetheoryandapplicationofcontemporarygeodesy[M ].Beijing:PublishingHouseofSurveyingandMapping,2003.(InChinese)
4 孙文科.低轨道人造卫星(CHAMP、GRACE、GOCE)与高精度地球重力场—卫星重力大地测量的最新发展及其对地球科学的重大影响[J].大地测量与地球动力学,2002,21(1):92～100.
4 SunWenke.Satelliteinloworbit(CHAMP ,GRACE ,GOCE)andhighprecisionearthgravityfield:thelatestprogressofsatellitegravitygeodesyanditsgreatinfluenceongeosciences[J].JournalofGeodesyandGeodynamics,2002,22(1):92-100.(inChinese)
5 周硕愚,吴云,李正媛,等.地壳形变测量学之进展与展望[J].大地测量与地球动力学,2002,22(3):94～101.
5 ZhouShuoyu,WuYun,LiZhengyuan,etal.Advanceandprospectofcrustaldeformationgeodesy[J].JournalofGeodesyandGeodynamics,2002,22(3):94-101.(inChinese)
6 NASASESWG .Solidearthscienceworkinggroupreport—Livingonarestlessplanet.Website:http://solidearth.jp.nass.gov.2002
7 周硕愚,吴云.NASA未来25年固体地球科学规划及其启示[J].大地测量与地球动力学,2003,23(2):117～121.
7 ZhouShuoyuandWuYun.SolidearthscienceprogramofNASAincoming25 yearsanditsinspiration[J].JournalofGeodesyandGeodynamics,2003,23(2):117-121.(inChinese)
8 周硕愚.系统科学导引[M].北京:地震出版社,1988.
8 ZhouShuoyu.Introductionofsystemscience[M ].Beijing:SeismologicalPress,1988.(inChinese)
9 毕思文,许强文.地球系统科学[M].北京:科学出版社,2003.
9 BiSiwenandXuQiangwen.Systemsscienceoftheearth.Beijing:SciencePress,2003.(InChinese)
10 周硕愚.走向21世纪的地壳形变学—对大陆动力学与地震预测的新推动[J].地壳形变与地震,1999,19(1):1～13.
10 ZhouShuoyu.Crustaldeformationadvancingtowards21thcentury:anewimpetustocontinentaldynamicsandearth quake prediction[J].CrustalDeformationandEarth quake,1999,19(1):1-13.(inChinese)
11 刘启元,吴建春.论地震数值预报—关于我国地震预报研究发展战略的思考[J].地学前缘,2003,10(增刊):217～224.
11 LiuQiyuanandWuJianchun.Onnumericalforecastofearthquakes—thinkingaboutthestrategyforpromotingearthquakeprediction[J].EarthScienceFrontiers.2003,10(supp.):217-224.(inChinese)
12 叶叔华总编,朱文耀、魏子卿主编.现代地壳运动的空间测量技术及数据处理方法研究[M ].上海:上海科学技术出版社,2002.
12 YeShuhua(managingeditor),ZhuWenyao,WeiZiqing(editorsinchief).Studyonspacegeodetictechniquesmonitoringcrustalmotionanddataprocessing[M].Shang hai:ShanghaiPublishingHouseofScienceandTechnolo gy,2002.(inChinese)
13 牛之俊,马宗晋,陈鑫连,等.中国地壳运动观测网络[J].大地测量与地球动力学,2002,22(3):88～93.
13 NiuZhijun,Mazongjin,ChenXinlian,etal.CrustalmovementobservationnetworkofChina[J].JournalofGeodesyandGeodynamics,2002,22(3):88-93.(inChinese)
14 李正媛,陈志遥,陈鹏,等.中国地震局形变台网数据中心的系统构成[J].大地测量与地球动力学,2002,22(3):66～68.
14 LiZhengyuan,ChenZhiyao,ChenPeng,etal.SystemcompositionofdatacenterofcrustaldeformationstationnetworkofChinaSeismologicalBureau[J].JournalofGeodesyandGeodynamics,2002,22(3):66-68.(inChinese)
15 周硕愚,张跃刚,丁国瑜,等.依据GPS数据建立中国大陆板内块体现时运动模型的研究[J].地震学报,1998,20(4):374～355.
15 ZhouShuoyu,ZhangYuegang,DingGuoyu,etal.Apre liminaryresearchestablishingthepresent-timeintraplateblockmovementmodelontheChinamainlandbasedonGPSdata[J].ActaSeismologicaSinica,1998,11(4):403-412.(inChinese)
16 吴云,帅平,周硕愚,等.用GPS观测结果对中国大陆及邻区现今地壳运动和变形的初步探索[J].地震学报,1999,21(5):545～553.
16 WuYun,ShuaiPing,ZhouShuoyu,etal.CurrentcrustalmotionanddeformationintheChinacontinentanditssur roundingareadeterminedfromGPSdata[J].ActaSeismo logicaSinica,1999,21(5):545-553.(inChinese)
17 周硕愚,帅平,等.中国大陆及其东南沿海现时地壳运动[J].自然科学进展,2000,10(3):273～277.
17 ZhouShuoyu,ShuaiPing,etal.Present daycrustalmove mentinChinacontinentanditssoutheastregion[J].ProgressinNaturalScience,2000,10(3):273-277.(inChinese)
18 WangQ ,ZhangPZ ,FreymuellerJT ,etal.Present daycrustaldeformationinChinaconstrainedbyglobalposition ingsystemmeasurements[J].Science,2001,294:574-577.
19 江在森,张希,崔笃信,等.青藏块体东北缘近期水平运动与变形[J].地球物理学报,2001,44(5):636～644.
19 JiangZaisen,ZhangXi,CuiDuxin,etal.Recenthorizon talmovementanddeformationinthenortheastmarginofQinghai-Tibetblock[J].ChineseJournalofGeophysics,2001,44(5):636-644.(InChinese)
20 朱文耀,王小亚,符养,等.基于ITRF2000的全球板块运动模型和中国的地形变[J],地球物理学报,2002,45(增刊):197～204.
20 ZhuWenyao,WangXiaoya,FuYang,etal.GlobalplatemotionfromITRF2000andcrustaldeformationaroundChina[J].ChineseJournalofGeophysics,2001,45(supp.):197-204.(InChinese)
21 李延兴,李智,张静华,等.中国大陆及周边地区的水平应变场[J].地球物理学报,2004,47(2):222～231.
21 LiYanxing,LiZhi,ZhangJinghua,etal.HorizontalstrainfieldintheChinesemainlandanditssurroundingareas[J].ChineseJournalofGeophysics,2004,47(2):222-231.(inChinese)
22 叶叔华总编,赖锡安、刘经南主编.中国大陆主要活动带现今地壳运动及动力学研究[M ].北京:地震出版社,2001.
22 YeShuhua(managingeditor),LaiXi’an,LiuJingnan(edi torinchief).Studyonpresent daycrustalmotionandgeo dynamicsofthemainactivezonesofChinamainland[M ].Beijing:SeismologicalPress,2001.(inChinese)
23 周硕愚,施顺英,吴云,等.强震前后地壳形变场动力学图像及其参量特征研究[J].地震学报,1998,20(1):41～47.
23 ZhouShuoyu,ShiShunying,WuYun,etal.Researchondynamicspatterncharactersofcrustaldeformationfieldbe foreandafterstrongearthquake[J].ActaSeismologicaSinica,1998,11(1):49-57.(inChinese)
24 申重阳,王琪,吴云,等.川滇菱形块体主要边界带运动模型的GPS数据反演分析[J].地球物理学报,2002,45(3):352～361.
24 ShenChongyang,WangQi,WuYun,etal.GPSinversionofkinematicmodelofthemainboundariesoftheRhombusBlockinSichuanandYunnan[J].ChineseJournalofGeo physics,2002,45(3):352-361.(inChinese)
25 邢灿飞,龚凯虹,杜瑞林.长江三峡工程地壳形变监测网络[J].大地测量与地球动力学,2003,23(1):114～118.
25 XingChanfei,GongKaihongandDuRuilin.Crustalde formationmonitoringnetworkforThreeGorgesprojectonYangtzeRiver[J].JournalofGeodesyandGeodynamics,2002,23(1):114-118.(inChinese)
26 杜瑞林,乔学军,邢灿飞,等.三峡二期工程蓄水后的垂直形变场[J].大地测量与地球动力学,2004,24(1):41～45.
26 DuRuilin,QiaoXuejun,XingChanfei,etal.Verticalde formationafterfirstimpoundmentofThreeGorgesproject[J].JournalofGeodesyandGeodynamics,2004,24(1):41-45.(inChinese)
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